2025 Asset Recovery: Why will Bitcoin significantly outperform gold and US stocks?
When watching Bitcoin's performance in 2025, many people fall into simple price comparisons and don't understand why it outperformed US stocks led by Nvidia, or even the traditional safe-haven asset gold.
If you look at it from a high-dimensional perspective, this is actually a question of physics and information theory. The price is only an indication; the energy flow and information density behind it are the essence.
1. The Congestion Effect of Energy Arbitrage: Shifting Computing Power Hegemony
In Musk's logic, value is often linked to energy conversion efficiency. Over the past decade, Bitcoin was the only machine that could transform energy into a digital scarce asset on a large scale, a thermodynamics-based value anchor.
But from 2024 to 2025, an extremely strong competitor has emerged: generative artificial intelligence.
The current core driving force of US stocks is not fiat inflation, but the exponential explosion of total factor productivity (TFP) brought about by AI. When tech giants invest hundreds of billions of dollars to build data centers, they are essentially snatching up global electricity quotas.
At this stage, the economic added value generated by training the next generation of large models or driving high-performance computing power chips temporarily exceeds the revenue generated by hash collisions to generate Bitcoin. The difference in marginal revenue forms price and capital choices. If you don't believe me, check how many Bitcoin mines have been transformed into AI computing power centers.
Capital is lucrative and sensitive. When the growth curve of silicon-based intelligence is steeper than the scarcity curve of “digital reserves,” excess global liquidity will prioritize productivity assets with nonlinear growth potential over simple digital assets.
2. Gold's “atomic properties” and Bitcoin's “code consensus”
Gold's strong performance this year is essentially the result of increased global geopolitical entropy.
In the face of de-globalization and systemic uncertainty, sovereign players need an asset that does not require an internet connection and does not rely on any clearing system. Under this extreme logic of system failure prevention, ancient gold provides atomic-level certainty.
Although Bitcoin is known as digital gold, it still relies heavily on internet infrastructure and centralized liquidity channels. When the system faced the risk of being cut off at the physical level, atomic-level certainty overcame Bits' consensus in the short term, and physical gold could at least be held in hands or put into a cave.
Gold hedges against the collapse of the system, and Bitcoin is currently viewed by the market more as an overflow of the system's liquidity.
3. The “passivation of volatility” brought about by ETFs
Tools determine behavior. The popularity of Bitcoin spot ETFs marks the official domestication of this beast.
After Bitcoin entered the traditional asset allocation portfolio, it began to follow the risk control model of traditional finance. Although this brought long-term financial support, it also greatly smoothed out its volatility and stifled its explosive power.
Today, Bitcoin is becoming more and more like a high beta technology index. Since the Federal Reserve has maintained high interest rates for longer than market expectations, this “long-tail asset” that is extremely sensitive to liquidity will naturally be suppressed.
4. Productivity singularities siphon Bitcoin's narrative
Charlie Munger emphasized opportunity costs.
If AI leaders with monopoly positions can achieve highly deterministic nonlinear growth, then the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, which does not generate cash flow, becomes extremely high.
2025 is the eve of a rare productivity singularity in human history, and all the money is chasing the node that could generate superintelligence. As a “challenger to the monetary system,” Bitcoin's appeal was diluted in the short term in the face of a productivity revolution narrative.
5. Phase transition adjustment period in fractal structures
From the perspective of complex systems, US stocks are in a phase of parabolic acceleration driven by AI.
In fractal geometry, tiny structures continuously replicate and amplify themselves through simple iterative formulas. AI is playing the role of this iterative operator. From Nvidia's computing power at the bottom, to cloud services at the middle level, to software applications at the top, every layer replicates the logic of a “productivity explosion.” This structure is extremely grand, but it also means that the system is approaching the physical limits of this local dimension.
The performance of gold in the collapse of the old order can be understood by the construction process of the Cantor Set (Cantor Set), which continuously removes one-third of the middle. Excluded from the current global financial fractal are “credit expansion,” “unfulfilled promises,” and “high entropy debt.”
As the old order continues to be torn apart by debt crises and geopolitical turmoil, the last group of unconnected but indestructible points is gold. This is a kind of value density generated by “subtraction,” and it is the most stable physical bottom layer in a fractal structure.
Bitcoin's current state is essentially a hedging result of forces on different scales: profit selling pressure from early participants offset each other over time with continued purchases of sovereign countries and long-term capital, causing the price to be compressed within a long-term low fluctuation range.
This kind of low fluctuation over a long period of time is dynamically known as an “attractor (attractor)” reconstruction.
This fractal system accumulates over time, reserving space for the next change in scale.
At the end of the day, Bitcoin in 2025 was not falsified; it was repriced. It temporarily gave way to the opposite end of productivity singularity and geo-defense requirements, bearing the cost of time rather than direction.
When AI's marginal efficiency declines and liquidity continues to spill out, Bitcoin will return to the role it really excels at, a cross-cycle liquidity value carrier.
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