The sharp rise in US GDP growth and interest rates may come to nothing. The probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January falls to 13.3%

Comparative news, according to CME Federal Reserve observation data, after the US macroeconomic data was released today, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year has dropped to 13.3%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 86.7%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in January rose to 31% last week. The initial quarterly real GDP annualized rate for the third quarter, adjusted for inflation, recorded 4.3%. The US GDP growth rate soared, making it the strongest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2023.

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until March next year is 54.4%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 40.7%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 4.9%.

The dates for the next two Federal Reserve FOMC meetings are January 28 and March 18, 2026, respectively.