Bauman, continued war in the Middle East will increase the risk of inflation

## Judgment rules When the latest monthly official CPI data was released after the Middle East war entered the confirmed conflict phase, if the US CPI-U (All Items, Seasonally Adjusted) growth rate was equal to or greater than 0.10% (≥ +0.10%), the market judged YES; if the month-on-month growth rate was less than 0.10% (< +0.10%), the market judged NO. If the data for the same month has not been released, the settlement will be based on the recently published monthly CPI data. The official final revised version shall prevail. Note: The “start date” of the war is based on the first day the conflict enters the formal phase as confirmed by the market, with reference to the first confirmed date from a credible news agency. ## Judgment basis - All US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI-U projects, seasonally adjusted month-on-month change (MoM%) as the main data source. - If BLS data is not available, priority is given to Eurostat (Eurostat) HICP monthly month-on-month changes; if not available, use China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) CPI monthly month-on-month data as an alternative. - The final revised version as officially published shall prevail. ## Special circumstances - If the data is published on or after the settlement date, it is determined according to the published version; if the monthly data has been revised several times, the final revision shall prevail. - If the start date of the war is undefined or the various parties are inconsistent, the first clear date widely recognized by the market will be used as the starting point. - If there are changes in the data such as seasonal adjustments or base period adjustments, the final official adjusted values shall prevail. ## Invalid condition (Invalid) - The data source is not an official CPI indicator or an unauthoritative data source. - Settlement is triggered when the relevant monthly CPI data is not published. - The event page was cancelled or the data was explicitly withdrawn officially without a final revision. ## Time rules - UTC+8 (Asia/Shanghai) is used uniformly at all times. The data release date is based on UTC+8; settlement is based on the release date of the official final monthly CPI data. If necessary, the time of the data is based on the official release timestamp.