QCP Capital: Market focus shifts from the signing of the US-Iran agreement to implementation risks, and the Federal Reserve sends a signal to maintain high interest rates for a longer period

Comparing news, QCP Capital released a daily observation saying that after the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the US and Iran, the focus of the market has shifted from reaching the agreement itself to risk at the implementation level. Although the price of Brent crude oil has fallen below $80, navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has yet to fully resume. Currently, the number of ships crossing the Strait is only about 14 per day, which is far below normal. The progress of technical negotiations over the next 60 days and the implementation of the cease-fire between Lebanon and Israel will be key indicators for observation.

In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, but the median interest rate in the 2026 bitmap was raised from 3.4% to 3.8%, indicating a further strengthening of the trend towards higher interest rates for longer (Higher for Longer). Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve raised its 2026 inflation forecast from 2.7% to 3.6%, highlighting that inflation remains a core constraint on current policies.

In the tech sector, SpaceX shares have retreated from a post-IPO high of $211 to $155, down 27% from their peak, but still above the $135 issue price. QCP believes that the market narrative is shifting from the IPO boom to AI financing logic, and SpaceX is gradually becoming an important part of the AI capital formation cycle.

In the crypto market, Strategy continues to increase its holdings of Bitcoin. Currently, it holds 847,363 BTC, accounting for about 4% of the total Bitcoin supply, and the average holding cost is $75,651. QCP pointed out that although Strategy's financing and holding mechanism is still in operation, against the backdrop that the spot price is lower than the cost of holding and the price of preferred shares falls below face value, the room for it to continue leveraging to increase its Bitcoin holdings in the future is narrowing.