QCP: Bitcoin's return above $60,000 to ease market fears, but expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut are still unsupported

Comparing news, QCP Capital published an article stating that Bitcoin once fell below the key support of $58,000 on Wednesday, hitting a minimum of about $57,700, then rebounded back to $60,000, boosted by the US non-farm payrolls data for June, and regained a position of $60,000; Ethereum's performance was stronger, returning above $1,700, rebounding nearly 10% from the mid-week low.

The options market quickly digested previous fears. The short-term implied volatility declined, and the term structure changed back to a positive market (Contango). Bullish options due in July became dominant in trading, and volatility sellers regained their advantage.

However, the current non-farm payroll data is insufficient to support the Fed's shift to dovish. Wage growth is accelerating, unemployment is falling, and consumption is still strong, all of which mean that the Fed still has room to maintain a hawkish stance. Although the BTC spot ETF ended a net outflow of 6 consecutive trading days and recorded a net inflow of $224 million, US bonds and US stocks have yet to confirm a full recovery in risk appetite, so now it's more like a phased rebound in the crypto market, and the market still needs to see if this round of gains can be verified by a wider range of assets.