Analysis: Bitcoin long-term holders transferred chips on a large scale for two consecutive days, or to avoid macro risks in advance

Comparing news, analyst Murphy wrote that in the past two consecutive days, there have been transfers of more than 65,000 BTC in a single day (transfers within the same entity have been excluded), which has led to a sharp drop in long-term holders' (LTH) net holders' (LTH) positions. He pointed out that LTH net holdings changed their previous upward trend in May and remained stagnant until July, a rare phenomenon in the past year.

Murphy said that nearly 14,000 BTC were transferred to exchanges. For example, Trump's listed company transferred 2,628 BTC to the Crypto.com exchange as part of this, and the destination and purpose of the remaining LTH net holdings reduction is unknown.

He also listed risk points that may have an impact on BTC at the current macro level, including the current 9-3 split of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, the Middle East conflict and oil prices, the high concentration of US stock AI sector valuations and reliance on debt and private credit financing, and the accumulation of yen arbitrage trading positions once again to a one-sided headroom close to historical extremes. At the same time, it suggests that the current sensitivity of BTC's own chip structure may amplify these risks.