Dario Hashimizu warns that the AI bubble is approaching the level of 2000: wealth does not equal money, and the flood of new stock issuance is a key force to break through the bubble

Comparatively speaking, the founder of Qiaoshui Foundation, Ray Dalio issued the harshest market warning in the “CEO Diary” podcast, bluntly saying that AI fanaticism has pushed the market into a bubble zone similar to 1929 and 2000. When the host mentioned Jeremy Grantham's previous claim that the current is the biggest investment bubble in US history, Dalio directly responded: He's right.

Dalio explains the core contradiction of the bubble mechanism with a simple deduction — investors buy shares of an AI company with $100 and use this as collateral to borrow money. When the market reverses and everyone needs cash at the same time, the price may collapse to $25, and the loan still needs to be repaid. Dalio emphasized that wealth is not equal to money. You have seen many people become rich, but wealth cannot be used for consumption. You have to sell your wealth to get money. The current market is more like gambling with an inexperienced influx of leveraged ETF investors.

Dalio also pointed out that there are two major forces that usually break through bubbles — rising interest rates drive up the cost of debt financing, and a surge in stock issuance. Currently, the latter is a reality: SpaceX was listed in June but its stock price broke out, and S&P expects its free cash flow to remain negative until 2029; Anthropic has secretly submitted a listing application and appeared at a valuation of nearly $1 trillion as early as October; OpenAI has also submitted an application, with a valuation target of over $1 trillion.

Dalio's bigger warning was not directed at the market itself, but rather the political and geographical conflict after the bubble bursts — Britain's change of six prime ministers in seven years is a symptom of running out of government funds and voters attacking each other on how to raise funds. The bursting of the AI bubble could be the trigger for political turmoil at the end of the 80-year cycle. Wall Street institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Apollo also recently sent a similar signal, indicating that there is a profit bubble in technology stocks, and the 60/40 portfolio strategy that worked for 40 years has failed.