OpenAI and Anthropic's revenue fell short of market expectations, and bulls were congested and bears increased volatility
Comparing news, US stocks plummeted last night, and AI trading became the center of market sell-off. The NASDAQ fell 1.3%, the S&P 500 fell 0.7%, the NASDAQ 100 fell 1.7%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5.6%. Storage stocks bore the brunt, with SanDisk falling about 9%, Micron falling about 7%, and Western Digital about 7%; AI chip leader Nvidia fell about 2.3%, Broadcom fell about 3.2%, semiconductor chains such as Marvell, Intel, and ultra-microcomputers also generally fell, and the decline was even deeper in the direction of optical communication and AI network equipment. For this round of the AI bull market, there is currently pressure on revenue expectations and position structures at the same time.
The first pressure comes from commercialized data from AI labs. OpenAI disclosed to investors that revenue for the second quarter increased from $5.7 billion to $6.7 billion in the first quarter, up 18% month-on-month, but losses widened further and operating profit margins continued to decline. This growth rate fell short of expectations of some shareholders, and also caused the market to re-evaluate OpenAI's profit path before the IPO.
Anthropic has also sparked controversy. As of the end of July, its annualized revenue operating rate is said to have reached 65 billion US dollars. It is still a very high growth rate, but it is lower than the previous optimistic expectations of 70 billion to 80 billion US dollars from some third parties and the market.
This is hitting where the AI market is most sensitive. Over the past year, US stock bulls have been willing to renew payments for GPUs, data centers, storage, power, and cloud capital, provided that leading application companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic can continue to prove that demand for terminals is strong enough. However, as revenue growth falls short of optimistic expectations and losses continue to expand, investors will begin to re-examine the return cycle of the AI capital expenditure chain.
The position factor amplified this round of decline. Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage data has shown that the share of bears in typical S&P 500 stocks has risen to a high level since 2011; FactSet and Robinhood statistics also show that most short positions in major US stocks have risen in the past three months. At the same time, the AI infrastructure chain is still gathering large amounts of capital, and some overvalued AI companies have also become overcrowded and shorted targets for hedge funds. Bullish crowding and increasing bears exist at the same time, making the market more sensitive to any negative news.
Under this structure, callbacks are amplified. The AI chain increased significantly in the early stages, and the bulls are already making considerable profits; the bears are waiting for cracks in revenue, profit margins, or capital expenditure logic. Once the growth story of OpenAI and Anthropic falls short of the market's highest expectations, capital will first cash out profits, and bears will also follow the trend to lower valuations, eventually forming a market where technology stocks collectively weakened last night.
