Over 80% of ships have diverted their routes to Oman, and Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is weakening

Comparing news, shipping data is showing changes in the actual traffic pattern in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Kpler data, more than 80% of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz in the past two weeks chose the Oman side of the route. The route was authorized by the United Nations, but was previously opposed by Iran.

Analysts believe that although both the US and Iran claim control of the Strait of Hormuz, neither side actually fully controls this key global energy channel. Homayun Farahshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, said it is becoming increasingly clear that Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait.

A month ago, Kpler found that almost no ships were using the Oman route, but now that percentage has risen to over 80%. At the same time, the number of ships choosing Iran's preferred routes has declined markedly, and Iran's ability to collect tolls through the strait has also been affected.

The United States relies on naval military deployment to continuously monitor shipping safety. US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said that the current flow of oil being transported and diverted through the Strait of Hormuz has reached about 15 million barrels per day, which is close to the level of about 20 million barrels before the conflict.

However, Iran still has some deterrent capability. Analysts pointed out that if Iran aims to completely control the strait, it will never actually achieve this goal; however, creating risks and influencing shipping through military action is still an important strategic tool.

Currently, Iran and Oman are discussing arrangements to resume free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar said that if the relevant agreement is reached, conditions may be created to push the US and Iran back to the negotiation table. However, Trump recently stated that there are currently no negotiations or dialogue between the US and Iran.