Glassnode: Bitcoin is still in the “capitulation phase”, and the current rebound should be viewed as a partial rebound in the process of bottoming out

Comparing news, Glassnode's latest report indicates that the Bitcoin on-chain structure is still in the “capitulation phase,” and the short-term holder cost base has dropped to around $68,500, which is lower than the real market average of about $75,800. At the same time, the highest level of relatively unrealized losses in this round was about 25%, which is significantly lower than the level of more than 60% during the surrender phase of the previous cycle, which means that this round of market losses is relatively shallow, but the distribution is more scattered, and it may take longer to complete the settlement.

Glassnode also said that the 90-day EMA that has now achieved a break-even ratio is 0.75, and historically, this indicator usually falls below 0.5 before sellers fail, so real seller failure has yet to occur. Glassnode further stated that until the indicator breaks through 2 again, any price rebound should be viewed as a partial rebound rather than a fundamental shift in market trends.

Furthermore, the directional premium in the 30-day perpetual contract market turned sharply negative during the recent round of decline, but has now clearly rebounded and re-entered the positive zone. This means that leveraged traders are once again willing to pay a premium to gain long exposure, and speculative risk appetite has improved. However, in contrast to improvements in the perpetual contract market, the Coinbase Premium Index continues to be negative. This shows that demand in the US spot market has yet to return meaningfully.