Bitfinex: Bitcoin's current rise is mainly driven by spot demand and short recovery, and profit recovery may be the biggest risk

Comparing news, Bitcoin recently rose to a multi-month high. Bitfinex analysts said that this round of the market is mainly driven by spot purchases and short buybacks, rather than additional leveraged funds, so there is room for a longer period of time compared to the typical bearish squeeze market. Since investors who have bought Bitcoin in the past 5 months are currently in a state of flux, the main risk of the current upward trend comes from profit chips flowing into trading platforms.

Bitfinex believes that the US Treasury Department's announcement on August 19 to expand the scale of long-term bond repurchases is an important factor driving the recent market. The early stages of this round of growth were indeed driven by the liquidation of bears. On the same day, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded an inflow of $297.6 million. However, the subsequent price increase was mainly due to spot buying. Looking at the position structure, while the price of Bitcoin rose by 10% to 11%, open contracts (OI) only rose by about 4%, indicating that spot demand and short compensation played a major role, while the impact of leveraged capital was limited.

Bitfinex notes that the $68,000-6.9,000 area is currently an important support level, which is close to the average cost for buyers over the past 5 months. Bitcoin remains above this level, which will allow these investors to continue to be profitable, reducing the pressure of previously locked up chips to sell when they bounce back. In terms of capital, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a single-day inflow of US$606.29 million on August 20, the largest single-day inflow since May 1, of which BlackRock IBIT contributed about 82%. Bitfinex said that if capital inflows continue for a week, it will further strengthen the market demand structure.

However, Bitfinex warns that the biggest risk right now is the influx of large amounts of profitable bitcoins into trading platforms, which could trigger the largest profit spill since 2026. Analysts said that if the actual yield rises back to the level that previously suppressed Bitcoin from falling below $6.5 million, macro factors may still quickly affect the market.