Long push: Why did I choose leverage on 63500/3500?
author:Allen Ding tripod
Note: This article is from@0x_AllendingTwitter:
Two years ago, I set a big tone for myself in this round of bull market operations. This is something that all old fans have known for a long time:
1. Fill up the spot position as soon as possible. The currency standard is the way to think in a bull market. So I personally filled up my positions in November 2022, at the timeEthereum1180
2. Stock up on flatbread and Ethereum, and strictly control the number of small coins within 10.
Currently my positions are 20% for Bitcoin, 60% for Ethereum, and 20% for small coins.
3. Be sure to look for opportunities to leverage Bitcoin and Ethereum, but never exceed 2.5x the full position.
Why use leverage, because it can actually amplify profits, and this round is probably the last big increase in the Bitcoin industry that ordinary people can enjoy. Why not more than 2.5x, because I think a sharp drop of more than 30% in a bull market is very common, and too high leverage can easily cause a position to be burnt out.
4. Unless there is an obvious top characteristic, it will not be sold, but once an obvious top characteristic appears, it must be sold.
Currently, I have completed 1 and 2 quite well, but 3 hasn't been completed. This is also one of my worries. Finally, 5 days ago, I applied 0.8x leverage at the Bitcoin 63500/Ethereum 3,500 position, and now I have a full position of 1.8x. Admittedly, opening a position in this position is definitely not the best option; it's more like a last resort, because the bottom of the flatbread round is 15,000, and the bottom of the eth round is 900, so the position I leveraged is already 4 times the bottom price. But I decided to get on the bus at this point because I wanted to understand something.
1 The funding for participation has changed.
The adoption of ETFs directly allows old US money to enter and dominate the Crypto game unhindered. This is seawater pouring into a small fish pond, and the fundamentals of the small fish pond itself are not important at all. This is also why after the ETF was passed, Bitcoin did not experience the deep pullback I had imagined, and V quickly reversed and repeatedly reached new highs. Even though the technical side is already very bearish, it can rise indefinitely. Essentially, the technical side of small fish ponds is not called technical; it is seawater. I recently interviewed many technical experts and short-term experts around me. They have all generally missed out on this wave, and they have also surrendered to join the blockchain revolution in the past month.
“As long as you surrender quickly, you are part of the revolution”
Zhuang 2 has changed, and the rules have changed.
In the past, companies in the industry were mainly exchanges and market makers; they relied on market fluctuations to make money. It doesn't matter how much Bitcoin rises unilaterally in a bull market. What matters is whether the magnitude of the shock is large or not, because as long as the volatility is sufficient and the waves go back and forth, gambling dogs will be very happy to gamble, and the more frequent the gamblers bill, the more exchange fees they earn, and the more room for market makers to arbitrage. However, this time, Zhuang is an ETF issuer like Huajie. Their profit model is not a handling fee, but a management fee. For a 5 billion dollar fund, they receive 0.2%; for a 50 billion dollar fund, they also receive 0.2%. For a 500 billion dollar fund, they can still receive 0.2%. So I'm asking you, do they want to make the plate bigger or smaller? The answer is of course to grow bigger, because they can only earn more management fees if the plate gets bigger. How can a plate be big? Of course, the price of Bitcoin is higher, because there are so many flatbreads; the higher the price of flatbread, the bigger the plate.
“Find Zhuang's purpose and determine if he has achieved it. If not, then join”
Before 3 new highs are not called high; only after a new high is the beginning
I vaguely remember January 2021, when my partner and I@0x_toddOn New Year's Eve in Yunnan, we were soaking in hot springs while eating hot pot. Watching Ethereum grow from 700 to 1,300 in a month, with a monthly increase of 78%, which directly stunned me. However, the front high is over 1,400, which is just around the front high. At this point, the price of Ethereum on February 1 was 2,283, and now it is 4018, which is calculated to be an increase of 76%. The previous high was over 4,800, which is also close to the previous high. I just ask you, is this moment just right now? If you think Ethereum is very high now, then congratulations. You will definitely think that 1,300 Ethereum was also high back then, and then you lost touch with 4,800 Ethereum.
“Sometimes chasing heights is the real bottom line”
4ATH will take a few times to break through, but be sure to seize every opportunity, especially the first time.
The main reason I chose to use leverage on March 6 is that I think the liquidation data and pullback strength after the failure to hit ATH on March 5 were adequate, and the rebound was also very strong. In the 2021 bull market, I remember that ATH experienced 4-5 times before breaking through. Because of the strong support of ETFs, ATH's breakthrough resistance in this round must have been less than the previous one, so after the first pullback I thought was qualified, I didn't hesitate to open a position because I didn't want to bet that it hadn't broken through for the second or third time.
“In a bull market, any act of betting that the price won't rise is foolish”
Finally, I hope my sharing can help comrades who are not yet full to gain strength. Currently, it only counts as 1/4 of the bull market. Next, you will also experience many bull market sessions, such as the explosion of mainstream coins such as Ethereum, the reshuffle of the top 100 projects in CMC market capitalization, the chaos of altcoins, and the domination of humans by zoos. There are plenty of opportunities. Every link has 5-10 times the chance to seize this round of bull market!
At the end of the day, I don't encourage everyone to use a leverage ban, especially a high leverage ban. I myself was a victim of the last round of high leverage. I was reminded over and over again during every live broadcast. This article only shares ideas; it does not guide everyone to use leverage and contracts.
