[Weekly Web3 News Picks] The US Department of Justice recommended that SBF be imprisoned for 40 to 50 years and fined him $11 billion; J.P. Morgan: Retail investors and institutions have been buying gold and Bitcoin futures to drive the rise in the crypto market; JMP Securities: Spot Bitcoin ETFs may have inflows of 220 billion US dollars in the next three years, and BTC may reach 280,000 US dollars; US judge requires Zhao Changpeng to entrust all passports to a third party

[The US Department of Justice recommended that SBF be imprisoned for 40 to 50 years and fined him $11 billion]

Comparing news, in a sentencing memorandum submitted on Friday, US Department of Justice prosecutors urged judges to sentence FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) to 40-50 years in prison for fraud. The Justice Department's Southern District Office of New York wrote that SBF “lied to investors,” shared false documents, and “injected millions of dollars into our political system in illegal donations,” adding that a prison term of 40 to 50 years was “necessary,” while recommending judgement and seizure of more than $11 billion of funds.

SBF was found guilty of seven different counts of fraud and conspiracy after a month-long trial relating to the operation and collapse of the two companies he founded, FTX and Alameda Research, and he is scheduled to be sentenced on March 28.

[The prediction platform PolyMarket shows that the probability that an Ethereum spot ETF will be approved fell to 28% at the end of May]

Comparatively, Polymarket's prediction market currently estimates that there is a 28% chance that a spot Ether ETF will be approved by the end of May. On January 10, the market showed a 74% chance that a spot Bitcoin ETF would be approved.

Earlier this month, the SEC delayed its decision on BlackRock and Fidelity's Ethereum ETF applications.

Earlier this week, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas lowered expectations for approval of an Ethereum spot ETF from 70% in January to 30%.

[J.P. Morgan Chase: Retail investors and institutions have been buying gold and Bitcoin futures, driving the rise in the crypto market]

Comparing news, analysts at J.P. Morgan Chase, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, wrote in a report on Thursday that since February, investors who bought gold and bitcoin futures “contributed to the recent rise in cryptocurrencies, not because investors have switched from gold to bitcoin. Instead, retail and institutional investors have been buying gold and bitcoin futures, leading to price increases, analysts said.

“In addition to retail investors, speculative institutional investors such as hedge funds, including momentum traders such as CTAs (commodity trading advisors), seem to have been driving gains by buying gold and bitcoin futures since February, and probably even more than retail investors.”

[Fox Reporter: Custodia Bank v. Federal Reserve Case Is the Next Major Crypto Lawsuit to Watch]

Comparing news, Fox reporter Eleanor Terrett said on the X platform that the lawsuit between Custodia Bank and the Federal Reserve is the next major crypto case worth watching.

Terrett said that if Custodia Bank wins the lawsuit against the Federal Reserve, it will mark a key point for the entire cryptocurrency industry. “If Custodia wins, then congressional credit to the US Central Bank (that is, all banks have equal access to the Federal Reserve's main account payment system on a non-discriminatory basis) may be restored, and state-chartered banks and crypto-friendly banks will once again be on equal footing with mainstream players,” she said.

[JMP Securities: Spot Bitcoin ETFs may see inflows of US$220 billion in the next three years, and BTC may reach US$280,000]

Comparing news, broker JMP Securities said in a research report on Wednesday that spot Bitcoin ETFs could see $220 billion in inflows over the next three years, which means the price of BTC could quadruple to $28 million when applying multipliers to new capital.

Analysts led by Devin Ryan wrote, “If we are on the right track for ETF net inflows to reach the $220 billion level and apply our current estimate of the new capital multiplier of about 25 times, this alone could drive a $5.5 trillion increase in Bitcoin's market value, or $280,000 per bitcoin.”

Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) is still in a good position if their inflow predictions prove correct, JMP analysts say. Factset data showed that the broker raised its target price for the stock from $220 to $300, the highest among Wall Street analysts while maintaining its market-outperforming market rating.

Another analysis suggests that the Bitcoin spot ETF market could grow to around $62 billion over the next two to three years, J.P. Morgan said in a report last week.

[US judge requires Zhao Changpeng to entrust all passports to a third party]

According to the latest disclosure of a legal document, the bail conditions for former Binance CEO Zhao Changpeng have been amended. US Judge A. Jones has ordered Zhao Changpeng to hand over all of his passports (whether valid or expired) to a third party and update the authorities on his travel plans, which means he must be accompanied by a third party custodian every time he goes anywhere requiring proof of identity.

Furthermore, the documents stated that without court permission, Zhao Changpeng “cannot apply for or obtain a new passport or travel document from any country” and that a third party holding a CZ passport can only return the passport to him with the permission of the pre-trial service department or court.

According to previous reports, in November of last year, Zhao Changpeng admitted violating the “Bank Secrecy Law”, failed to register Binance as a money service company, and failed to develop an effective anti-money laundering plan. He is scheduled to be sentenced on April 30.

[Spot Bitcoin ETFs account for nearly 90% of the daily trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs]

Comparative news, according to The Block data, just two months after the launch of the US spot Bitcoin ETF, spot Bitcoin ETFs occupied nearly 90% of the market share of ETFs that provide Bitcoin price exposure, while Bitcoin futures ETFs account for about 10%. These figures highlight that investors prefer to directly invest in Bitcoin through ETFs rather than products based on Bitcoin futures contracts.

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