Plummeting and shuffling!
At around 10 p.m. on Sunday night, the BTC bearers tested the key psychological level of $60,000. It was discovered that the support was not strong. After getting it easily, it was easy to suddenly launch a general attack at around 8 o'clock this morning, pushing the front line from a minimum of 58k to around 52k. Currently, there is a temporary standoff between the two sides of the 54k line.
Regarding this battle situation, I have carefully read the last two editions of the teaching chain, namely [“8.4 Teaching Chain Reference: Everything Has Fallen, Where Has the Money Gone? Where's the bottom?”] and [“8.2 Teaching Chain Intrinsic Reference: Bitcoin Gains Single”] The friends of the second installment should not be surprised.
Among them, yesterday [“8.4 Teaching Chain Reference”] To be clear, the education chain will view this decline more as a low reshuffle driven by BTC's own internal causes (that is, the liquidation of Mt. Gox, etc.) rather than a trend reversal driven by external factors (that is, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the US economic recession).
From a semi-quantitative perspective, yesterday [“8.4 Teaching Chain Reference”] also cites [“5.28 Teaching Chain Insider: Will the 140,000 BTC change in Mentougou cause the market to collapse?”] A half-quantitative rough estimate made by the China Education Chain, under the assumption that 1/3 of the settlement amount is reduced to 60,000 dollars, can be accepted. And yesterday [“8.4 Teaching Chain Reference”] Further analysis shows that splitting the overall payout into 1/3 must throw, 1/3 paper hand, and 1/3 diamond hand. After accepting 1/3 of the must-throw, the market will definitely tend to find an opportunity to wash out 1/3 of the paper hands and then start the market, which will make it easier.
This is very much in line with the “maximum loss principle” mentioned by the teaching chain before:The direction of the market is always in the direction of allowing as many people as possible to generate as much loss as possible.
According to the teaching chain, this principle is actually very similar to “the direction of light always follows the shortest distance” in physics. Just yesterday's teaching link was in the article《Trump gave Bitcoin's strongest forecast so far: $167 million》Here, for example, BTC is like light, wave-particle duality, and the speed of light hasreference systemunrelated constancy. Well, corresponding to a straight line, BTC will also follow the biggest loss path, and the closer BTC is to pure and free money, the more it is like light, and the closer it is to the path of maximum loss.
The logic behind this, the teaching chain feels, is that BTC can more effectively keep the realized market value (realized marketcap) and current market value (marketcap) closer.
As we realise this, we know that in this round of bear markets, the “previous high” of 69,000 dollars was broken through the previous round in early 2024. So, obviously, the bull market either started early and ended early, or the bursting warehouses exploded, so that all those who were desperate to cut meat left the field, and everyone who received the unexpected fortune handed over their chips at a low level. The vast white land was really clean, so that the future market could make a difference.
So, if 1/3 of the paper hands need to be washed off, will the market choose to wash them off at 50,000 or 60,000 dollars, or will they flee for profit? Obviously, according to the “maximum loss principle,” these people can make a lot less money by washing it out here.
Then, follow the aboveSemi-quantitative analysis, throw back 1/3, 68k to 60k, then divide 1/3 and retract to 52k, isn't it reasonable? Is it an accident? It's no surprise at all.
As stated in the internal statement,”All those who are afraid to clear their positions and leave the market, and those who are forced to leave the market by bursting out of leverage, can only be said to be the case.」
To persuade people to cut meat is bad if they are not stupid. Teach people contracts, seek money, and harm lives.
Don't do anything small. Don't be petty.
I've seen the teaching chain online more than once, and many people have complained that the BTC cycle is very difficult, and it's hard to make money.
Have you ever thought about why is it so hard to make money? Education Chain believes that the reason money is difficult is precisely because you just want to make money.
The philosophy of the teaching chain is to accumulate assets rather than earn money (receive income). Please take a closer look at the differences between the two.
Many people don't understand this for the rest of their livesSecond order logicAs a result, they will always be caught in an endless cycle of “making money - losing money.”
Dr. Thomas Stanley, author of “The Millionaire Next Door,” followed and surveyed 1,371 people with financial freedom and found that the vast majority of them were “asset rich” rather than “income rich.”
Don't forget your original intention. You must not forget your initial goal of entering the market under the influence of strange circumstances in the market and the encouragement and incitement of all kinds of people with ulterior motives. Is it to slowly become rich, have financial freedom, have plenty of time, have a leisurely life, family, and beauty? Or is it to spend the whole day struggling with short-term ups and downs, always watching contract leverage for fear of bursting out of positions. You can't relax your nerves for a moment. Your life is full of tension, you have no time to spend time with your family and children, and you can't get away with falling into reincarnation to earn and lose money?
A lot of unhappiness in life is because I can't think about it.
I want to open it. Put it down.
If you are in full bloom, the breeze will come naturally.
A few days ago [“8.2 Teaching Chain Reference”] I explained the logic behind the collapse of US stocks and the collateral collapse of BTC. The “312” major fuse in 2020 is an example. Now that US stocks are on the BTC ETF again, there are two connecting points.
Pull up the monthly chart. Now 54k dropped less than 20% in August.
Since 2020 alone, the biggest retracement in March 2020 was -62.4% (monthly decline -25.39%), the biggest retracement in May 2021 was -53.44% (monthly decline -35.31%), the biggest retracement in January 2022 was -31.63% (monthly decline -21.41%), and the biggest retracement in June 2022 was -46.13% (monthly decline -40.28%),...
Every time BTC goes bullish, a retracement of more than 30% is very common. The 3x plus lever means you must wash it frequently. Otherwise, why did the spot increase by 1 times make them earn 2 times more in vain? Let's take another look back at the “maximum loss principle” mentioned at the beginning of this article.
Currently, this so-called “collapse” and “blood washing”, even if calculated from 72k to 52k, is only a -27% drop, which is less than 30%. So gentle.
Prices in financial markets are essentially not a definite number. It's actually very similar to the probability distribution of microscopic particles in space described by quantum mechanics. An electron can be at points A and B at the same time; in fact, it is at every point in space at the same time; however, the existence of each point is just a different probability.
Therefore, using the perspective of quantum mechanics as an analogy, BTC actually has countless prices at the same time. It is also 100,000 dollars, 60,000 dollars, 50,000 dollars, 10,000 dollars, 1,000 dollars, and 0. However, its probability is different at each price. Therefore, the instantaneous price we observed is actually a probabilistic weighted average of countless prices.
Also, Teaching Chain has mentioned many times that BTC lives in logarithmic time and space, and we live in linear time and space. Therefore, in terms of time and space for BTC, we can generally assume that the probability of BTC returning to 4 digits (that is, the 0-9999 dollar range) is extremely small now.
If we want to further narrow this range, then one possible reference point is the support level given by the power law, which is around 31-31k in September 2024. This is in [“8.2 Teaching Chain Reference”It has already been clearly stated in].
However, when the bull market was forced to drop to the power law support level the year before, it only happened once when a global epidemic comparable to a world war occurred in “312” in 2020, and US stocks were blown up one after another.
I believe it should be easy to gauge how different the current macro situation is from the situation in 2020, as long as the brain is not stupid or devious.
Looking at it another way, why didn't the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in July, put it until September, and vacate August. Isn't this just leaving a time gap to make it easier for bookmakers to reshuffle their cards?
It's hard to say that Powell and the other councilors didn't look at the unemployment rate data released on August 2 ahead of time. At the interest rate meeting that was held on the last two days at the end of July, they changed the basis for decision-making to look not only at inflation, but also on employment. Powell even bluntly said that if employment is bad, then interest rate cuts will begin.
In the face of tangible hands, the market is hindsight. When the market discovered that the recession was on its way to the weekend, the Federal Reserve had already finished its meetings and closed its doors. If you want me to bail out the market right away, there's no way, haha.
Buffett's clever cooperation added fuel to the fire and released news of a drastic reduction in US stock holdings, which strongly contributed to the complete collapse of the market.
The interest rate hike cycle is an intense game period for bookmakers to redistribute benefits. Distribution method, teaching chain article on 2023.9.22“Huashan Sword Discussion: The Final Battle”It was already mentioned in. In the dollar contraction cycle, whoever can handle the pressure to buck the trend and expand credit will take up a larger share of the cake — because everyone else's cake is shrinking and getting smaller. Once the game between bookmakers has reached a new balance and they are relatively satisfied with the pattern of interests, they can end the cycle of austerity and move into a cycle of easing. Let's work together to seize land all over the world.
The teaching chain has a question for all readers to think about: Who will win in this round of contraction of less than 3 years? The answer is actually quite obvious. Look at who has bucked the trend and expanded credit in the past two years, and whoever is expanding credit is the winner. Right, it's still these guys: Hawk-chan, who sells US debt, and rabbits that cut interest rates against the trend.
So who is the loser? When the easing cycle hits, whoever has less money in their pocket is the loser.
The Federal Reserve will meet again in late September. The bosses have discussed the instructions, and once the hitters have cleared the battlefield, Powell can open the door and read the manuscript according to the plan to announce the market's ideals of cutting interest rates!
At the beginning and end of the movie, who is the sword and who is the guest?
Whether you've recovered or not, after washing these cards, a new game is about to begin.
