Vitalik: Predicting the market is the “third type of information system” after the media and social networks

At today's #ETHShanghai 2025 summit, Vitalik had a round-table conversation with Xiao Feng Buterin, chairman of Wanxiang Blockchain.

Vitalik Buterin said that the potential of the forecasting market far exceeds that of an investment tool; it may become a “third medium” in the social perception system.

Using Polymarket during the US election as an example, he pointed out that many intellectuals who were originally critical of crypto also understood the real impact of events by predicting the market. “When I saw this kind of use across circles, I realized—it was a real success.”

Vitalik believes that predicting the market can filter out biases in traditional media and social media, making prices the most realistic signal.

In the future, with the intervention of AI, the forecasting market will expand from macro events to micro interactions, such as predicting the popularity of an article.

Video link: https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1g4sazHEWs/?spm_id_from=888.80997.embed_other.whitelist&t=98.84579348100085&bvid=BV1g4sazHEWs