The 2026 investment scripts of the 4 biggest tech billionaires: long on copper, bearish on oil, new crypto assets will replace gold and BTC

Original text:All-In Podcast

Compiled by Yuliya, PANews

Original title: 2026 Investment Scripts of the 4 Biggest Tech Billionaires: Long on Copper, Bearish on Oil, New Crypto Assets Will Replace Gold and BTC

“All-In Podcast” is one of the world's most popular tech and business podcasts, co-hosted by four top venture capitalists and friends. The four hosts are: Jason Calacanis (early investor in Uber and Robinhood, podcast host, responsible for controlling the field), Chamath Palihapitiya (billionaire, founder of Social Capital, known as the “King of SPAC,” with sharp opinions), David Friedberg (founder of The Production Board, with a deep scientific background and known as the “Sultan of Science”), and David Sacks (America's first “Tsar of AI and Cryptocurrency”, close friend of Musk, co-founder of Craft Ventures, former Paypal executive, recently deeply involved in US political activities). In this episode of the program, the four made in-depth predictions on 2026 political, business, and technology trends, covering topics such as California wealth tax, Trump economics, AI's impact on employment, geopolitics, and specific investment suggestions.

Here are the details of this conversation, compiled by PanNews:

Prologue: Escaping California and the Wealth Tax Crisis

Jason Calacanis (hereinafter Jason): Welcome back to the world's number one podcast. David Sacks, everyone wants to know, how have you adjusted since you moved to Texas?

David Sacks (hereinafter referred to as Sacks): I love the 70 degrees Fahrenheit (about 21 degrees Celsius) weather here. I finished my move in December, bought a new home, went to the car management office, and signed an Austin office lease for Craft Ventures. Everything is done.

Jason: Chamath, what about you guys?

Chamath Palihapitiya (hereinafter referred to as Chamath): We want to investigate, but we haven't made a final decision yet.

Sacks: The funniest thing is that when we discussed the California wealth tax in the group, Chamath was still there and said, “I want to stay and fight, I'm not leaving my home.” As a result, I got a call from my agent saying she was helping Chamath find a house.

Jason: Wow! Is Chamath making a “backroom deal”?

Chamath: I'm just hedging my bets! If you look at our friends who have clearly left, their combined net worth is around $500 billion. This is very bad for California's long-term budget. If you count those who are watching and may be forced to leave, roughly half of the estimated taxable wealth in the California budget will be lost.

Sacks: I predict this (California wealth tax) will be a topic of conversation throughout the year. They are collecting signatures, and it will take about 850,000 signatures to send this proposal to the ballot. If it is confirmed to be on the list in April, it will cause huge panic, and many people will leave because they are unable to take the risk. Even if it doesn't pass in 2026, everyone is expecting some kind of version to make a comeback in 2028. That's why I decided to leave.

Chamath: If you're an entrepreneur with a good idea, it's hard to start a business here. Because once you succeed, hold a large number of illiquid stocks and have to pay 5% of the valuation of these stocks as taxes, which will bankrupt your own company.

Sacks: And what if your company goes back to zero in the second year? You still owe your tax bill. Also, one of the reasons Larry Page and Sergey Brin (Google founder) left may be the super-voting clause in the proposal. The clause states that if you have super voting rights, the tax office will calculate the value of all of your shares as a multiple of your super voting rights. For example, if they have 52% of Google's voting rights, and Google's market capitalization is 4 trillion dollars, then their net worth may be regarded as having 1 trillion dollars each, rather than the actual 200 billion dollars. For them, the 5% tax actually became a 25% or even 50% tax.

Jason: Lightning predicts, will this “asset seizure tax” pass?

David Friedberg (hereafter Friedberg): I don't think it won the vote.

Chamath: I don't think it will pass, but there will be a vote.

Sacks: Polymarket previously predicted that its probability of getting a vote was only 45%, but it soared to 80% after Ro Khanna and Bernie Sanders stepped in. There are only two situations where it won't work: one is that the union (SEIU) doesn't have the money to collect signatures, and the other is that Gavin Newsom (California Governor) can withdraw them through negotiations.

Chamath: But if you get a vote, the chance of passing is 40%.

The biggest business winners in 2026

Jason: Next comes the commercial winner. According to last year's predictions, Friedberg chose robots and autonomous driving hardware, Chamath chose US dollar stablecoins, Gavin chose large companies that make good use of AI, and I chose Tesla and Google. Arguably, we all made very accurate predictions. Who are you picking this year, Friedberg?

Friedberg: I have two choices.

• The first one is Huawei. I believe that the international cooperation between Huawei and SMIC is deeply involved in the chip field. They are making full use of their energy, and this year's performance will exceed Western expectations.

• Second is Polymarket, which has evolved from a weird niche market to a platform that provides current affairs insights, and I expect it to explode this year. After we saw its collaboration with the NYSE, I expect all exchanges, including Robinhood, Coinbase, and even NASDAQ, to make some moves this year. Predicting the market will not only become a market, but also news.

Chamath: I chose copper. In a world that increasingly moves towards unilateralism and emphasizes national economic resilience, we still seriously underestimate the gap between global demand and supply for a few key elements. In this context, the asset that is most likely to “soar through the sky” is copper. It is currently the most useful, cheapest, and most ductile and conductive material, and is everywhere, from data centers to chips to weapon systems. At the current rate, there will be a gap of about 70% of global copper supply by 2040.

Sacks: I think 2026 will be the big year for IPOs. A large number of companies will successfully go public, creating trillions of dollars in new market capitalization. Over the past period, people worried that the number of listed companies was shrinking, and many companies were privatized. 2026 will be a major reversal of this trend, which is part of the “Trump boom.”

Jason: I chose Google last year; this year I chose Amazon. I think they will be the first “corporate singularity” where robots will contribute more profit to the company than humans. Their autonomous driving company Zoox is progressing well, while they are replacing human employees on a large scale with robots. In Austin, we can now order anything on Amazon for same-day delivery, which is supported by a huge automated warehouse and logistics network.

Sacks: I think Jason's judgment on Amazon will be correct in the end, but the reason is completely unrelated to what he gave.

Biggest business losers in 2026

Jason: After talking about the winners, let's take a look at the losers. We all agreed on last year's predictions. Friedberg, Chamath, and Gavin all pointed to enterprise-grade SaaS (software as a service), and I chose traditional car companies and real estate. Facts have proven that enterprise-grade SaaS did not perform well in 2025, and the stock prices of companies such as ServiceNow, Workday, and DocuSign all fell. Friedberg, what are your predictions for business losers this year?

Friedberg: I think the state government will face huge financing difficulties. As more and more light comes to light about the waste, fraud, and abuse of state government agencies, people will begin to question their long-term solvency. More seriously, states' huge unrealized pension debt problems will be revealed this year, which will make people aware that there is a huge black hole in state government finances.

Chamath: I chose the software industry complex, that is, companies that sell licensed SaaS to US companies. This is an economy with an annual output value of three to four trillion dollars, yet 90% of its revenue comes from “maintenance” and “migration.” As AI models and technology advance, I think economic opportunities in these two areas will shrink and shrink dramatically. Businesses still need software, but incremental revenue will be greatly reduced, which will seriously impact listed SaaS companies.

Sacks: I still chose California. Commerce and capital are being driven out of this state because of the shadow of a wealth tax and a strict regulatory environment. I really hope you're right; this bill ultimately won't go through the vote. If it actually hits, there will be a panicked escape.

Jason: My choice was young white-collar workers in the US. I think it's getting harder for them to find entry-level jobs now because companies find it easier to automate with AI than train fresh graduates. I see that many companies are using AI to replace some of the repetitive tasks at the bottom, and these tasks are usually done by young people who have just graduated. This isn't to say that young people don't have opportunities; it's that they need to become more resilient, more self-reliant, and must learn to use AI tools.

Friedberg: I have a different opinion on this. I've heard from some CEO friends that it's difficult to recruit fresh graduates right now, not because of AI, but because of cultural issues. Many Gen Z graduates seem to lack the motivation to work, organizational skills, and executive functions. This may be a special phenomenon during the COVID-19 pandemic, or it may be a deeper cultural shift. So I think the problem of young people's difficulties in finding employment is a combination of cultural factors and AI automation.

Jason: I think both are right. Maybe these young people are either spoiled or their parents have enough money to keep them busy. But I've also seen many companies tell me that they can replace the bottom third of the tasks, which are usually done by young people who have just graduated.

The most significant transactions in 2026

Jason: Next, let's predict the most significant transactions in 2026. Sacks, what do you think?

Sacks: I don't want to name a specific company, but I think there will be a major breakthrough in the field of coding assistants (Coding Assistants) and Tool Use (Tool Use). Just like chatbots at the end of 2022, the popularity of this field is rising dramatically, and I think it will become more and more important this year.

Friedberg: I think the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be resolved this year. There are many economic and political factors driving this process, which will bring more stability to the region.

Chamath: I don't think it's a specific deal, but rather a change in transaction methods: IP licensing transactions will replace traditional mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Large-scale mergers and acquisitions have become extremely difficult due to increasingly stringent antitrust scrutiny. Therefore, companies will instead use large-scale IP licensing agreements to acquire technology and talent. The collaboration between Google and Character.ai, Microsoft and OpenAI, and Nvidia and Grok all reflect this model. I think this type of transaction will become more common and mature in 2026.

Jason: I think we're going to see a huge merger of over $50 billion. It's probably Apple, Meta, Microsoft, or Amazon to buy AI upstarts like XAI, Mistral, Perplexity, or Anthropic. I know most of these AI companies want to go public independently, but I think an offer that cannot be refused will eventually appear. President Trump may direct the administration to “make mergers and acquisitions great again,” which is critical to maintaining America's global competitiveness.

The boldest reverse thinking predictions for 2026

Jason: Next up is everyone's favorite part: the boldest reverse thinking predictions. In my predictions last year, I said OpenAI would lose its leading position; Chamath predicted a crisis in major banks; Gavin predicted an annual GDP growth of more than 5%; and Friedberg predicted a return to socialism. Arguably, everyone's predictions are quite forward-looking. Friedberg, what's your reverse forecast for this year?

Friedberg: My predictions are based on the premise that there will be a revolution in Iran and the Ayatollah regime will fall. But that's not my reverse view; I think it's going to happen. My reverse view is that Iran's collapse will not bring stability to the Middle East; on the contrary, it will trigger more conflicts. Many people think Iran is a destabilizing force in the region, but I think it actually played some kind of “stabilizing” role. Once this regime disappears, other Arab countries (such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) will erupt into new conflicts over power and influence, especially after the emergence of a “two-state solution” in Palestine. The situation in the Middle East will be worse than anyone could have anticipated.

Sacks: My reverse prediction is that AI will increase rather than decrease the demand for knowledge workers. I'll quote the “Jevons' paradox” (Jevons' paradox): when the cost of a resource falls, the total demand for it increases because people find more use cases. For example, reducing the cost of generating code will cause society to create massive software; reducing the cost of radiological scanning will make scanning popular, requiring more radiologists to interpret and verify AI results. The so-called “unemployment narrative” is not only wrong; we will actually see employment growth.

Chamath: I have two reverse predictions.

• First: SpaceX will not conduct an IPO, but will reverse merge with Tesla. I think Elon Musk will take this opportunity to consolidate his control by consolidating his two most important assets into a single shareholding structure.

• Second: Central banks will be aware of the limitations of gold and bitcoin, and seek a new, controlled cryptographic paradigm. To maintain national sovereignty, they need a tradable, secure, and completely private asset that can't be easily spied on by other countries (whether friends or enemies). Furthermore, technically speaking, it must be able to withstand quantum computing challenges to existing cryptographic systems that may occur within the next 5 to 10 years.

Jason: My reverse prediction is that the confrontation between China and the US will be resolved to a large extent. I think this could be a landmark achievement of President Trump's second term. The two sides will have a win-win working relationship rather than a zero-sum game where one party loses.

Best performing assets in 2026

Jason: Last year, shares of high-bandwidth memory manufacturers (such as Micron), which Gavin predicted soared 230%, and Friedberg predicted that Chinese tech stocks also performed well. What assets do you think will perform best this year?

Friedberg: I chose Polymarket again. Its network effect is showing; it is replacing the functions of traditional media and markets; it has great potential.

Chamath: I chose a basket of key metals. This is consistent with the copper logic I mentioned earlier. In the context of geopolitics and supply chain reshaping, the demand for these basic materials will be rigid.

Sacks: I chose the expansion supercycle in the tech sector. It's still part of my “Trump prosperity” theory. Also, today as we recorded the program, the Atlanta Federal Reserve just raised its forecast for fourth-quarter GDP growth to an astonishing 5.4%.

Chamath: There are a few things that people aren't aware of.

• First, due to immigration issues, the non-farm payrolls data has been reset, and the income of low-income people is growing very rapidly.

• Second, productivity improvements brought about by AI.

• Third, the tax reduction policy that will come into effect in 2026.

All of these factors combined to create a huge growth engine. Don't short the US economy; it's ready to take off. A 6% increase in GDP is not unrealistic.

Jason: In this general environment where the economy is about to take off, interest rates are likely to drop, and people have spare money, my choice is in the field of speculation and betting, including platforms such as Robinhood, Polymarket, PrizePicks, and Coinbase. People will have more free time to bet and speculate.

Worst-performing assets in 2026

Jason: Our predictions for the worst performing assets last year were surprisingly consistent, almost all pointing to enterprise-grade SaaS and traditional automobiles/real estate, and the facts also prove our judgment. Sacks, which assets do you predict will perform the worst this year?

Sacks: I think it's a high-end California mansion. The market will face tremendous pressure due to the continuing impact of wealth tax rumors. I even hope that if the wealth tax proposal fails in the end, there will be a “dead cat rebound” so that I can get rid of my property.

Chamath: I think it's hydrocarbons (hydrocarbons), or petroleum. I think the downward trend in oil prices is irreversible. Regardless of your views on climate change, the trend in electrification and energy storage technology is unstoppable. This will continue to reduce the effective use scenarios for petroleum. I think oil prices are more likely to fall to $45 per barrel than back to $65.

Friedberg: I think Netflix would be the worst performing asset (provided they didn't complete their acquisition of Warner Bros.), or more broadly, traditional media stocks the worst performers. Netflix's content library is being challenged from all sides, and the conditions for content creators (plus 10% of the cost) are now so demanding that many great creators are no longer willing to work with them. If they don't expand their content library through mergers and acquisitions, they will face huge difficulties. Traditional media, however, are being challenged by independent creators and Citizen Journalism (Citizen Journalism).

Jason: I chose the dollar. Our national debt continues to grow and is expected to increase by another 2 trillion dollars this year. If President Trump actually increases the military budget by 50%, that will directly count towards our debt. All of this will challenge the value of the dollar, which is one of the reasons we see people turning to gold, silver, and even copper.

The most anticipated trends in 2026

Jason: The trends we are looking forward to last year include the return of M&A and IPOs, the rapid development of AI, and the construction of nuclear energy. What trends are you looking forward to most this year?

Friedberg: I think Iran's becoming an independent democracy will be the most anticipated trend this year. The people there, especially young people, crave freedom, and the economic crisis is driving this change. This is probably the most significant event reshaping the Middle East landscape.

Sacks: The trend I'm most looking forward to is auditing government spending at all levels. We need to normalize “decentralized DOGE (Ministry of Government Efficiency)” so that the public can see where the money is being spent.

Chamath: What I'm looking forward to is the expansion of “Trumpism.” Regardless of your political stance, as an economic participant, whether running a business, investing in the stock market, or participating in cryptocurrency speculation, it's important to understand the changing landscape of the global economy. Unilateralism and economic resilience are huge trends, and the result will be huge GDP growth.

Jason: I'm still sticking to last year's prediction and continuing it until 2026: the return of the king of the IPO market. I think at least two giants like SpaceX, Anduril, Stripe, Anthropic, or OpenAI will apply for listing this year. This will explode the market, and it's an exciting time for Silicon Valley, the employees of these companies, and the pension funds and endowments that hold their shares.

The biggest political winners in 2026

Jason: OK, let's get to the official prediction. First, who will be the biggest political winner in 2026? Looking back at last year's predictions, Friedberg said it was a young candidate; Gavin (guest host) said it was Trump and centrism; Chamath said it was a fiscal conservative; I said it was a representative figure of Gen X and Millennials. Friedberg, what are your choices this year?

Friedberg: American Democratic Socialist (DSA). Just as the MAGA movement took over the Republican Party, I think DSA is taking over the Democratic Party, and this trend will be consolidated in 2026.

Chamath: Anyone committed to fighting waste, fraud, and abuse at the federal, state, and local levels. This is an open circuit, and I think this political strategy will be very effective in 2026.

Sacks: I think “Trump Boom” (Trump Boom) will be the biggest political winner. The good news for the economy is already beginning to show: inflation fell to 2.7%, core CPI 2.6%, GDP grew 4.3% in the third quarter, the trade deficit was the lowest since 2009, and the number of layoffs dropped sharply. The S&P 500 continues to reach new highs, oil prices have fallen, mortgage costs have dropped by $3,000, and real wages have risen by more than $1,000. I predict that by June, we will see interest rate cuts of 75 to 100 basis points, and thanks to larger standard deductions and tax exemptions for tips, overtime, etc., there will be large-scale tax refunds in April. All of this will have a huge impact on the political landscape next year.

Jason: What is your forecast for GDP?

Sacks: I chose 5%.

Chamath: I think the lower limit is 5%, and the upper limit is 6.2%. You know, if we can reach 6%, the only quasi-competitor that can do this in the modern world is China, and during a period where it fully coordinates and dominates the federal, state, and local economies. It would be amazing that we can do this under democracy and capitalism.

Friedberg: My prediction was 4.6%.

Jason: My predictions fluctuated between JD Vance and “The Mamdani Moment” (The Mamdani Moment, referring to young socialists like New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani), but I ended up choosing “Mandami Moment.” He's only 34, and the Democratic Party seems to think moving towards full socialism is the easiest way to win in 2026. I think Trump, by ignoring the needs of the American working class, provided space for this route. He is now more of a neo-conservative. He has bombed seven countries this year and has threatened to occupy Colombia and Greenland, which has disappointed many.

The biggest political losers in 2026

Jason: After talking about winners, let's talk about losers. Last year, Gavin and I both predicted Putin, Chamath predicted progressivism, and Friedberg predicted a pro-war neo-conservative. Sacks, who do you think the biggest political loser in 2026 is?

Sacks: I think it's Democratic Centrism (Democratic Centrism). This is actually the other side where you think socialists will win. There are two reasons:

• First, socialist ideology prevails among basic voters of the Democratic Party (especially young people);

• Second, because of the division of constituencies, the vast majority of congressional districts have no real competition. The only real threat to current members of the Democratic Party comes from their left-wing challengers, so even moderates are forced to turn left.

Chamath: The biggest loser in 2026 was The Monroe Doctrine (The Monroe Doctrine). I think historians will rewrite it when they look back on Trump's presidency. I think there is a clear “Trumpism,” which is superior to the Monroe Doctrine. How do we view war? How do you view our sphere of influence? How do you view economic multilateralism and unilateralism? All of this is out of date. Trump's view is hemispheric dominance and active intervention in very specific situations, such as cracking down on drug cartels, controlling immigration, and securing important assets. We have more transactional relationships, which allows us to respond at any time.

Friedberg: I think the biggest political loser in 2026 is the tech industry. Artificial intelligence and technological wealth have become the target of populism on the left and right. The right is splitting within, and the alliance between technology and MAGA is being strongly challenged by populism; the left is hardening because of the alliance between technology and the right. I think the 2026 midterm elections will be a referendum on the tech industry.

Chamath: Friedberg was absolutely right. I just met with three senior Republican senators yesterday who are very disappointed and distrustful of some tech companies and their leaders.

Sacks: I think the tech industry's natural ally is MAGA because we still believe in property rights and innovation. If the Democratic Party actually moves towards socialism, they will want to reshape your relationship with property rights. The populist right is outraged because they remember censorship, de-platforming, and shadow bans. Tech companies need to have some “truth and reconciliation” meetings with conservatives. Many companies were pressured by the Biden administration to do this in the first place, and they also made the mistake of only donating money to left-wing causes.

Jason: I agree with Sacks that the biggest political losers in 2026 will be the Democratic center.

Sacks: Jason, you mentioned Trump as a neo-conservative twice, and I have to respond. Neo-conservatism is characterized by large-scale invasions, prolonged occupation and nation-building. But did Trump do these things? No. In Venezuela, for example, the entire operation lasted only three hours, and no Americans were killed, which is perfect. Instead of overthrowing the entire regime, we are cooperating with the existing regime. This is a new paradigm, not neo-conservatism.

Jason: I acknowledge that Trump's military actions are indeed very precise and efficient, and our military has performed excellently. But things can always go wrong. If the operation fails and we take hostages, today's discussion would be completely different. We must be careful.