Crossing the pullback fog: Is the market building the bottom of the 2028 level

author:Chain Research Institute

Original title: Will it be BTC's 2028 diamond bottom now?

Will it now be BTC's 2028 diamond bottom?

2026 is undoubtedly the worst start year for Bitcoin in nearly a decade.

From the bad start on January 1st until now, BTC has dropped from $109K to $65K, a year-on-year decline of 24%. ETH was worse, down 34%. This is BTC's worst opening year performance since 2016.

But this time was different. There was no reason for this collapse.

1. Falling for no reason is the deepest fear

The drop of 73% in 2018 was due to the collapse of the ICO bubble and the return of all air coins to zero. The 77% decline in 2022 was due to the collapse of Luna+Three Arrows Capital+FTX running away. Every time it crashes, you know why.

Every time, you know where the enemy is and how long it will take to rebuild trust, but what about 2026?

• No exchange thunderstorms

• Stablecoin crashes without algorithms

• No hacker attacks

• No country has banned BTC

It just fell. Fortune magazine said: “It was the worst start year in history, but there was no clear catalyst for the collapse.

There is a justifiable collapse, and the market will rebound in retaliation after the gap runs out; but the unexplained decline is like a form of chronic blood loss. When everyone is asking why it is falling but there is no answer, the panic grows exponentially.

2. Has the bottom-breaking index come to an end?

The current quantitative indicators of the market show that the market has entered a vacuum of some kind of irrational decline.

According to the latest data from February 25, our bottom reading model's current signal is only 1/5, which is still too early for the real bottom (data source fuckBTC)

❌ MVRV < 1.0

❌ Price ≤ 200 week EMA

❌ Price <P25

✅ Fear and greed ≤ 25 (extreme fear 11)

❌ Close to shutdown price (close to half of machines shut down)

This level of extreme fear only appeared historically at the end of 2018 at $3,000 and the FTX crisis at $16,000. Although the price is still at $65,000, the market's psychological defenses have retreated to doomsday mode.

3. Positive signals under the ice: Who is leaving? Who's on the duvet?

Although the body feels extremely cold, there are some positive signs:

1. USDT 60-day net outflow of $3B. The last contraction of a similar scale was when FTX crashed at the end of 2022, when BTC was at $16K. BTC is now $64K, which is 4 times higher than it was then.

The two have similar levels of capital withdrawal, which shows that leverage and floating capital in the market have been cleaned up very cleanly.

2. Short-term whales did not realize a loss of $26B. Most of these people opened positions at $90K-$120K and are now 40% covered. The selling pressure, which continues to fall sharply, should not be that great.

According to historical experience, when large sums of money are taken to this depth, active pressure will instead be exhausted — because cutting meat has lost its logical meaning.

➤ My opinion

I don't predict this is the bottom (probably not)

But I know:

• Extreme Fear (11) has appeared

• Historical unexplained falls often fell deeper, but the rebound was also more intense

• At $65K, the margin of safety is already quite high

The person who said $3K was the bottom in 2018 was right. Whoever said $16K was the bottom in 2022 was right. Saying $64K is the bottom in 2026—maybe true or wrong.

I don't know.

But what I do know is: the fear will always pass, and when trust is rebuilt, the price will return.

If you're still in a short position, at least you've avoided the sharpest retracement range, which often bottoms out before the price according to historical sentiment.

History repeats itself: After Mt. Gox was stolen in 2015, people also thought that trust could not be restored; but looking back on the past, every darkest moment with no reason ended up being a diamond bottom leading to the next cycle. $64,000 in 2026 is probably the number you regret not adding positions when you look back in 2028.

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