TGE in a bear market, is backpack the starting point or the end?
By Maher, Foresight News
Original title: Backpack today's TGE, what kind of script will come out of the bear market opening?
On March 23, Solana's eco-famous wallet and centralized exchange Backpack will launch the BP token TGE. According to information previously released by Backpack, the total supply is set at 1 billion pieces, and the contract address is: BPxxFRCxKUVHIG4HS1LH7KZQV6SPJHzFEK4x6FVBJPCY. Currently, Backpack has launched a pledge page. You can cancel the pledge at any time during the first 7 days, and you will have to wait 7 days to release the pledge after 7 days. Users can check the BP token allocation after clicking Agree.
25% of the tokens will be unlocked at TGE (24% for point holders; 1% for Mad Lads). 37.5% of the tokens will be unlocked before the IPO. Unlock gradually according to key milestones. All tokens are distributed to users who reach each incremental supply milestone, and these milestones are based on measurable regulatory progress, product expansion, and broader market access.
Unlocked 37.5% after listing. As corporate treasury funds, they are fully locked in until 1 year after the IPO. Tokens are held as strategic digital assets for long-term value creation. All team members and investors get token exposure through the corporate treasury.
Of these, 25%, or 250 million, were immediately unlocked during the TGE phase, all targeted to community users, and no team or investor share participated in the initial circulation.
Backpack founder Armani Ferrante revealed the guiding principles for the project's tokenomics design. Its core goal is to prevent insiders from selling to retail investors, and founders, executives, employees, or venture investors cannot profit from tokens until the project is listed in the US. Furthermore, the tokens in circulation will be exclusively distributed to users and used as incentives for business growth when entering key milestones such as entering new regions (such as the European Union, Japan, and the United States) or launching new products (such as forecasts, stocks, bank cards, etc.).
Armani Ferrante emphasized that none of the founders, executives, team members, or venture investors received a direct token distribution. The entire team's share allocation will remain in the company's treasury and locked up for at least one year after listing. Team members hold shares in the company, and the company holds most of the token supply, and the team can only benefit after the company goes public or an equity withdrawal event occurs.
Users need to log in to Backpack's official website or mobile app to complete the TGE verification process. The system will automatically calculate and distribute shares based on the relative share of points at the time of the snapshot. Mad Lads NFT holders only need to connect to the corresponding wallet to be automatically allocated, and no additional action is required. Once completed, users can see the “TGE Verified” badge in Credits - Achievements.
The points accumulation mechanism announced by Backpack includes multi-dimensional indicators such as transaction volume, asset holding time, invitations, and depth of product usage. In addition, Backpack introduced a pledge exchange mechanism. Users can pledge BP for at least one year to convert it into company shares at a fixed rate. A total of 20% of Backpack's shares will be distributed to qualified pledgers, and the amount of pledge time, amount, and platform product usage will be used as weighting factors to determine priority IPO rights.
What is the value geometry?
Prior to this airdrop, Backpack's anti-witch measures were also continuously upgraded, in addition to requiring all accounts participating in the points campaign to pass KYC (identity verification). In the “Epilogue” (final chapter) phase in early 2026, Backpack officially carried out an audit to identify and recover more than 50 million so-called “false points” through data analysis.
Backpack requires all eligible airdrop candidates to perform a second manual confirmation before the deadline of March 15, 2026. Many script numbers may already be in an “offline” or “management vacuum” state after a long run. Require manual clicks and even re-verification within a specific window to filter out automated accounts that “run after swiping”. User X mocked Metabape and “opened a 270,000 cent account. Take a look: 1000 coins.”
Backpack's “milestone unlock+equity conversion” model is the first in the industry. Furthermore, Backpack has obtained licenses from the UAE, the United Kingdom and Europe, and the IPO path is clear. Once the company has achieved business milestones, pre-IPO unlocking will form a positive cycle. Of course, there are risks too: failure to meet milestones may result in phased liquidity limitations, but this is also the original design intent — to ensure that token releases are linked to actual value creation.
According to the latest data from Polymarket, the current probability of the market betting that the FDV exceeds 100 million US dollars the day after launch is 98%, the corresponding currency price is 0.1 US dollars, and the probability of exceeding 200 million US dollars is 87%, corresponding to a currency price of 0.2 US dollars. The probability of FDV exceeding 300 million US dollars has dropped sharply to 44%, and the probability of exceeding 500 million US dollars is 11%.
That is, currently market players on Polymarket are predicting that the price range is roughly around 0.1-0.2 dollars.
It is worth mentioning that 100 million to 200 million US dollars FDV is also the public valuation range for Backpack's last round of financing.
In February 2024, Backpack completed Series A strategic financing of $17 million with a valuation of 120 million US dollars. This round was led by Placeholder, with participation from Hashed, Robot Ventures, Amber Group, Wintermute, Jump Crypto, Delphi Digital, etc. In September 2022, Backpack raised $20 million, led by FTX Ventures and Jump Crypto.
In February 2026, according to Axios, people familiar with the matter said that Backpack Exchange is negotiating a new round of financing to raise a new round of 50 million dollars at a pre-investment valuation of 1 billion US dollars. There are still no final results.
According to data from the official website, Backpack currently has unclosed positions of 137 million US dollars, the total nominal value of assets under management is about 350 million US dollars, and the total nominal value of loans is 330 million US dollars. The total transaction volume has reached 4.33 trillion US dollars due to airdrop expectations.
Currently, the crypto market is in a deep bear phase. Bitcoin has always fluctuated around $70,000, and some crypto projects have chosen to close their doors due to intense pressure. Backpack has been urged by the community to issue coins many times before. However, due to hacker theft and compensation due to some system failures, etc., its team finally chose TGE only when the market was at its worst.
So after Backpack TGE, will the takeover capital in the market choose to support it or completely abandon it? We'll find out today.
Twitter:https://twitter.com/BitpushNewsCN
Compare the TG exchange group:https://t.me/BitPushCommunity
Compare TG subscriptions:https://t.me/bitpush
