The copycat won't die; it will only become more and more like the “US stock market”...
author:TVBee
Original title: Altcoin/VC coins will not die out; they will only tend to become US stocks...
The contradiction of the copycat season and the redundancy of VC coins
Actually, the 2025 cottage season has come
From May to August 2025, BTC was rising while its market share declined. The market share of altcoins is rising at this stage.
BTC is rising, while the total market value of copycats is growing even more. This is the copycat season.
VC coin redundancy
The paradox of the copycat season is that the total market value is growing, yet the market has no perception of the copycat season.
This is because the total market value of altcoins is growing, but there are so many altcoins that the vast majority of individual altcoins have not risen significantly.
So the key problem with the 2025 counterfeit season is — VC coin redundancy.
So the question is, why will there be so many VC coins in 2025?
Liquidity misalignment in the VC coin tier 1 and 2 markets
The normal route should be for VC to invest first, then enter the secondary market after the token TGE, facing the greater liquidity of the secondary market and causing the price to rise.
However, in this round of the market, there was a liquidity misalignment between the primary market and the secondary market.
◆ The reason for VC coin redundancy is excess liquidity
From 2021 to 2022, there was a large amount of VC investment in the primary market, the amount of investment and the number of projects.
Financing in other time periods is generally only concentrated within 1 to 2 months, but from 2021 to 2022, there was a lot of financing and a long period of time.
We can think that this is financing redundancy caused by excessive macro liquidity, which is the root cause of VC coin redundancy in this round of the market.
◆The reason for the poor performance of VC coin prices is the lack of liquidity in the secondary market
However, both the previous M2 growth rate and the financing data map fully explain that after these redundant VC coin TGE in 2025, market liquidity was declining.
As a result, this kind of time gap between the liquidity in the primary market and the secondary market was created. A large number of VC coins have redundant liquidity in the primary market financing stage, while in the secondary market stage after TGE, there is a lack of liquidity.
Of course, there are many reasons for the lack of liquidity in the secondary market, which will be discussed in the next article.
Summarize
The most critical problem is that the liquidity in the VC coin tier 1 and 2 market is misaligned, resulting in a relatively large number of VC coins during the 2025 copycat season, and the selling power was relatively high. Instead, the buying power was insufficient, and the natural performance of the currency price was not ideal.
Altcoin/VC coins won't die out
VC coin financing continues with a more cautious attitude
It's still the VC financing map from before. As can be seen, there are still quite a few projects receiving financing in 2025. Including the total amount of financing and the number of projects, it is far lower than in 2021. On the one hand, it may be that macro-liquidity is relatively unrelaxed; on the other hand, it also shows the cautious attitude of VCs in investment activities.
One thing to note, however, is that in 2025, an average of about 75 projects were funded each month. The amount and volume of VC financing in 2025 was higher than in 2017-2018. This shows one thing: after we ignored VC coin financing redundancy in 2021, altcoin/VC coin financing is still improving.
After this round of the bear market is over, after VC coins are TGE again, there will be no redundancy of as many new coins as in 2025. Unless macro-liquidity is still not relaxed enough, the new round of counterfeit market will probably be one of two situations between the craziness of 2021 and the cold of 2025.
Web3 finance still holds a scale of nearly 100 billion US dollars
First, in the financial sector, a large number of TradFi institutions have joined Web3. There is no need to even give an example in this area anymore.
Currently, the TVL of the entire network is still 92,831 billion US dollars, which is roughly equivalent to the level of March to April 2021.
Technology companies and Web3 continue to integrate
✦ Examples of tech giants getting involved in Web3
In the non-financial sector, tech giants are also participating in Web3. For example:
Google is deeply involved in the Hedera ecosystem, is a network node of Hedera, and is also a member of its management committee. Hedera's management committee members also include IBM, Boeing, and Nomura Securities. Google has also integrated Hedera's ledger data into BigQuery, and developers can use SQL to query Hedera blockchain data. (Blockchain is not a relational database and does not support direct use of SQL. Generally, SQL can only be used after indexing).
Google is also one of the Midnight (Cardano sidechain with privacy protection) nodes, and provides developers with development tools to quickly deploy Midnight nodes using Google Cloud.
Nvidia recently promoted collaboration between its AI development platform Brev.dev and the Depin project Akash. Developers can choose to use Akash's computing power when developing AI at Brev.dev.
Microsoft directly developed Bitcoin's second-layer DID network—ION.
Telegram dominates the TON ecosystem.
Sony directly launches L2 entertainment infrastructure Soneium...
✦ Examples of Web3 serving Web2 and AI
On the other hand, some Web3 projects are also serving the Web2 field and AI. For example:
The BitTensor subnet provides incentives for AI development and promotes the development of the AI ecosystem.
Aethir serves hundreds of enterprise-level customers, including cloud gaming and AI.
VeChain serves companies such as Walmart and BMW, providing them with on-chain traceability services.
PolkadotPolkadot also has some enterprise-level or institutional-level clients, such as Milan Polytechnic University...
Summarize
VCs are still continuing to invest in Web3, which means VC projects still have some capital and motivation for technological innovation and product development... and the amount of VC investment is higher than in 2017 and lower than in 2021, which shows a cautious increase in VC investment.
The integration of finance and Web3 is in various fields such as DeFi, RWA, and stablecoin payments. Technology institutions are also merging with Web3.
All of this indicates that altcoin/VC coins will not die out.
US equity trend of altcoin/VC coins
“NASDAQ” conversion of exchanges
On March 25, 2026, Binance released the “Crypto Market Maker Risk Tips and Project Party and User Guide”.
Among them, five types of risky behavior or risk phenomena of market makers were proposed: aggressive selling and unlocking conflict, unilateral trading behavior, volume and price mismatch, insufficient liquidity or depth, and imbalance between volume and liquidity.
In response to these risks, Binance's measures include:
First, suggest the project party. It is recommended that project parties carry out scientific due diligence, evaluation, monitoring, etc. before and during cooperation with market makers, so as to manage risk well.
Second, standardize project parties. Project parties are required to strictly abide by the token release schedule, strictly prohibit token acts that disrupt the market, promptly disclose market maker information to the platform, not collaborate with third parties to manipulate prices or liquidity, strictly screen partners, clearly perform actions that can be carried out when signing contracts with market makers, and continuously monitor market maker behavior after launch.
Third, the platform continuously monitors and manages market makers. Binance promises to “continuously monitor market makers and take quick and decisive action on any irregularities, including blacklisting offending market makers”.
Since then, Binance has further played a regulatory role in market health on the basis of acceptance of supervision and legal compliance. Tendering the platform to “NASDAQ.”
In the stock market, exchanges such as NASDAQ are not only stock distribution platforms, but also stock trading platforms, and are also deeply involved in market supervision.
Crypto exchanges, on the other hand, can often only perform the latter function, which is a trading platform for tokens. The issuance of tokens is based on blockchain. This is one of the bottlenecks of crypto exchanges, making it difficult to regulate the issuance, on-chain circulation, and trading of tokens.
As the world's largest exchange, Binance's restrictions and supervision on the behavior of market makers will bring very positive significance to the crypto market and help protect the rights and interests of retail investors.
As a leader in the crypto industry, Binance's actions are likely to be supported by more platforms, project parties, and users, and more platforms will draw on Binance's management strategies for market makers. This means that the overall crypto market will tend to become “NASDAQ”.
This is a more favorable, healthier, and more promising future for retail investors.
The trend of US equities in the altcoin market
Token issuance level: Due to the addition of more traditional financial institutions and tech giants, as well as more cautious VC investment practices. Chances are, only those relatively better VC coins will be issued. The phenomenon of large-scale VC distribution with uneven quality, such as 2025, should be greatly improved.
Token trading level: Binance, as one of the leaders in the crypto market, is strengthening controls on market makers' risky behavior. Other platforms are likely to imitate and learn from, so the token trading market will also reduce market manipulation and harvesting behavior, and gradually move towards a relatively healthy trading ecosystem based on US stocks.
KOL level: As the number of VC coins will decrease, the demand for token advertising will also shrink. However, more and more bloggers are pouring into the ranks of KOLs, and in every round of the bear market, some idle BDs begin to transform into KOLs, and the number of token advertising suppliers will increase. This means that competition in the token advertising market will increase. KOLs who are more differentiated, have strong analytical skills, and have a positive outlook may be more likely to win in the competition, which is also beneficial to the health of the industry.
Market level: A simple four-year cycle transaction may not have much return. The four-year cycle is likely to gradually weaken. BTC is likely to be in sync with US stocks to some extent. The VC coin concentration TGE situation may also weaken.
At the retail level: The winning rate and odds of a transaction may have some correlation with perception.
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