The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in June reached 97.3%, and the probability in July was 84.8%
Comparative news, according to a report by Jin Shi, CME's “Federal Reserve Watch” shows that the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until June is 97.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 2.7%. By July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 84.8%, the probability of increasing interest rates by 25 basis points was 14.8%, and the probability of increasing interest rates by 50 basis points was 0.3%.
YES: The FOMC's official June policy statement clearly keeps the federal funds target range unchanged (no interest rate hikes, no interest rate cuts, no target range adjustments). NO: The FOMC officially announced adjustments to the federal funds target range (raise or cut interest rates, or otherwise change the target range terms). If the statement changes only forward-looking guidance or economic outlook but does not change interest rate targets, it will still be recorded as YES.
## Judgment basis
- Official data source: FOMC statements/press releases published on the official website of the US Federal Reserve System (Federal Reserve), and their timing information.
- The determination is based on whether there are any changes in the “Federal Funds Target Range” in the official press release; if there are multiple versions of the official text, the final official text shall prevail.
- The time is based on the official published time and is uniformly displayed as UTC+8.
## Special circumstances
- If multiple texts are published on the same day, please refer to the final official press release.
- If the statement only amends forward-looking guidelines, economic outlook, etc., and clearly states “keep interest rates unchanged,” it is still considered YES.
- If multiple texts appear on the same day due to an urgent or unconventional announcement, please use the final official release as the basis for judgment.
## Invalid condition (Invalid)
- If the official source is unverifiable, the link fails to redirect, or the text is missing.
- The official text does not clearly cover changes in the target range of federal funds (referring only to other non-interest rate content). At this point, the market should treat it as pending and suspend settlement.
- Situations where secondary sources such as unofficial media reports or Twitter posts are the sole basis.
## Time rules
- Results are based on the date of publication of the official FOMC statement/press release, and are uniformly labeled UTC+8.
- If there are multiple versions of the text on the same day, the release date of the final official press release shall prevail.
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