The opening of the World Cup is imminent. Historical data reveals the true nature of the World Cup magic

Comparatively, early tomorrow morning, the 2026 World Cup soccer tournament will officially open. There is no doubt that the quadrennial World Cup is a major event for soccer fans, but on the other hand, as investors, they are also worried that the World Cup will divert market attention and have a negative impact on the investment market. Summarize past historical data and sort out the performance data of US stocks and Bitcoin during the World Cup as follows:

US stocks: During the past 40 years of the World Cup, the S&P 500 recorded a total of 5 rises and 5 declines. The average yield was about -0.18%, and the median was about +0.30%. Overall, there's no clear World Cup spell, but the volatility has clearly subsided. Among them, 1998 was in a strong cycle of US stocks, with the biggest increase during the game; 2002 was in the phase of the bursting of the internet bubble and financial confidence crisis, with the biggest decline; and 2022 was affected by the Federal Reserve's expectations of interest rate hikes, inflation, and recession.

Bitcoin: The overall performance during previous World Cups was weak. In particular, during the 2014, 2018, and 2022 World Cups, the price mostly showed a downward or volatile weakening trend, which had a clear World Cup magic effect. Among them, 2014, 2018, and 2022 were all Bitcoin bear years. Combined with the start of the World Cup, Bitcoin's performance was clearly weak. Among them, Bitcoin's maximum retracement in 2018 was about 15%.