Qiaosui Dali Ou Changwen talks about decision-making in the AI era: Principle thinking and AI must go hand in hand, and human insight is irreplaceable

Comparing news, Rui Dalio, founder of Qiaoshui Foundation, published a long article to systematically explain the principled decision-making methodology he adheres to in the era of artificial intelligence. Dalio pointed out that the investment field is a zero-sum game where the value of information that is widely known is very low, so even the most advanced AI's insight is not enough for people to follow blindly, and unique human understanding and insight are still irreplaceable. Qiaoshui's core experience over 50 years shows that decisions must be based on logical, understandable standards, and combine principled thinking with AI. Principle thinking does not judge based on feelings, but rather examines and systematizes decision criteria — thoroughly thinking about situations and causal relationships, writing down standards, backtesting historical performance as much as possible, and then computerizing and automating them. Standard derivation cannot rely on data mining or simply questioning AI; it should be transformed into a decision-making system based on logical understanding.

Dalio described this process as a game between humans and AI: AI partners follow methods through systematic standards, and humans follow methods through principles in their heads. The two sides compare logic, talk, and debate, and finally align the reasons for thinking and decision making. The principles to be pursued must span time and across regions, trace as long history as possible, and test in various environments in various countries to verify their universality; if they fail, thoroughly study and correct the causal relationship. The output of the entire system is always accompanied by a reasoning process to ensure that the logic is clear and understandable, and that complex relationships are handled faster and less emotional than the human brain. Dalio said he is using this process in the family office to make full use of emerging AI technology, and plans to continue communicating the methodology to the outside world. Dalio also warned the market that it would either keep up with this cutting edge or lose competitiveness.