Institutions: The trend divergence between Bitcoin and US stocks is only a temporary phenomenon

Comparing news, although the US stock market continues to hit new highs and Bitcoin's performance has been relatively weak since this year, asset management agencies Hashdex and Charles Schwab both believe that this divergence will not last long.

Hashdex Chief Investment Officer Samir Kerbage said that currently market capital is flowing more towards topics such as AI infrastructure, IPOs, and interest rate transactions rather than digital assets. This reflects changes in capital allocation rather than deterioration in the fundamentals of the crypto industry. He pointed out that in the first half of this year, stablecoin trading volume had surpassed the full year of 2025, the scale of tokenized real world assets (RWA) increased by more than 60% during the year, crypto online trading activity also reached a record high, and the divergence between on-chain fundamentals and market valuations reached an all-time high.

Jim Ferraioli, head of digital asset research at Carson Wealth Management, believes that the current trend of Bitcoin is still in line with the historical cycle after successive halves. He said that it usually takes more than a year for Bitcoin to return to the production costs of inefficient miners. Currently, the cost is about $95,000, while the average market holding cost is about $80,000, which means it may continue to face unbundled selling pressure during the price rebound process.

Ferraioli believes that although the four-year halving cycle is not an absolute rule, this model has profoundly influenced investor behavior. As the Bitcoin market matures, the volatility of each cycle in the future is likely to lessen.