Buy AI and stop following the trend! People who really make a lot of money only look at this “hidden invoice”
Author: Danny
Original title: To those ordinary people with empty AI positions: You think you're late — in fact, you just don't have your own worldview
To ordinary people with empty AI positions: You think you're late — in fact, you just don't have your own worldview
“What to do? I haven't made any money from AI, so I won't be able to do it until I get in the car.” This is probably the voice in your heart when you opened this post.
NVIDIA has increased tenfold in three years. The number of optical module leaders has increased 17 times a year. Open the news and every article talks about AI. Colleagues are showing off their holdings. The WeChat group is sharing “the next ten times the share”.
You have an empty position. You're anxious. You open your account and hang your finger over the “buy” button.
I'd like to ask you a question first - why would you want to buy it?
If your answer is “AI is a big trend” or “some KOL is calling for a list” - that is someone else's judgment, not yours;
If your answer is “My friend earns money, I want to earn it too” - that's jealousy, not an investment;
If your answer is “it's too late to buy” — that's FOMO, not analysis.
Your real problem isn't 'late'. Your problem is that you don't have your own worldview.
Sounds abstract. Let me be clear in a specific way — why this question is 100 times more important than “what stock to buy”.
1. Where do 99% of people lose
Open any financial platform, and all discussions revolve around one question: what to buy.
“Can NVIDIA continue to rise?” “Should I chase the optical module?” “What do you think of the robotics section?”
The questions themselves are wrong.
They assume one thing — you already know that AI/robotics/optical communications are in the right direction. And this is exactly the part that should be thought of independently the most, but skipped by 99% of people.
What's the cost of skipping?
When your judgment is right, you don't know why — so you don't know when to leave.
You buy it on NVIDIA's $80 recommendation from a KOL. You can't bear to sell it to $140 because it's “long-term bullish”. If you go up to $200, you want to increase your position because “the momentum is strong”. It drops to $150 and you're confused, “the story is still there”. If it falls to $100, you sell in a panic, “did you read it wrong”.
When your judgment is wrong, you don't know why — so you keep losing money.
You bought an AI concept stock for $50. If it falls to $30, you don't sell, “AI has been the main line for ten years”. It drops to $20 and you increase your position, “it's cheaper now”. If you drop to $10, you lose. After that, this stock never returned to your cost.
What these two situations have in common: you never have your own frame of judgment. You're just listening to different people and doing different things at different times.
That's the price of a rented worldview.
2. What is “one's own worldview”
A worldview is not about watching the news. A worldview answers a few essential questions: (for example)
What will be the biggest change in human society in the next 5-10 years? Will the energy structure be restructured? Will computational costs drop by another order of magnitude? Will the labor market be restructured?
Where are the physical constraints of these changes? Is there enough electricity? Are there enough minerals? Is there enough talent?
How will the money flow? Who makes money from it? Who is being disrupted? Who is the real bottleneck?
When you can answer these questions, stock selection becomes easy — because you already know where the money is going, you just need to find the floodgates in that river.
More importantly — when the market fluctuates, you don't panic and don't ask people everywhere. Because your judgment doesn't depend on “whether it will rise or fall tomorrow”, but on “what the world will look like in 5 years”.
Buffett, Munger, and Dario are able to overcome bulls and bears, not because they are smarter, but because their worldview was created by themselves, not fed by the market.
3. Two paths: self-build vs. follow
Path A: Build Your Own Worldview
Difficult. It requires you to read a lot across disciplines, track first-hand sources of information, think independently for a long time, and accept that 30% of judgments will be wrong.
The vast majority of ordinary people don't have this reserve of time, energy, or knowledge. It doesn't matter - there's also path B.
Path B: Follow the person who can see the furthest
The logic is simple: People who really change the world see trends 5-10 years earlier than everyone else. Their words and actions reveal their worldview. Following their money is tantamount to inheriting their judgment.
But 99% of people get this step wrong — you're not following their words, but their money.
Let me repeat it because it's important:
Talking is cheap. But Capex is expensive.
Elon Musk said “next year's FSD L5” for eight years — this is rhetoric. SpaceX spent $5.6B on gas turbines — this is capex.
Capex doesn't lie. A man is willing to bet 5 billion dollars in a certain direction. His true belief in this direction is 10 times stronger than any interview, speech, or tweet.
This is the most critical yardstick for judging the worldview of leading figures.
4. Five people worth tracking in the field of AI commercialization
Not every CEO's statement is worth listening to. This article lists the opinions of five people. They each represent slices of the different worldviews in the AI era, which together form a complete signal network.
Jensen Huang (NVIDIA) — A Shovel Selling Perspective
All AI companies have to buy chips from him. He has the most complete demand signal in the industrial chain: the true curve of computing power demand, where the bottleneck is, and how production capacity will be distributed over the next 3 years.
Listen to GTC's main keynote (every March and October) and watch the quarterly earnings conference call. But most importantly, look at NVIDIA's balance sheet investments—CoreWeave, Lumentum, Coherent, Corning, Nokia—these are the real bottlenecks he identified. He used his company's cash to show you where to make money.
Elon Musk (Tesla/SpaceX/xAI) — Capex's Perspective
The most aggressive performer. At the same time, it has real money decision-making power in the five fields of autonomous driving, rockets, AI, energy storage, and robotics.
Listening to Musk has a mentality: 70% of his remarks are rhetoric, and 100% of his actions are signals.” Next year, “FSD L5” said it was a no-brainer for eight years, but $5.6B to buy gas turbines, $697M to buy Megapack, SpaceX, and xAI merger — these capex decisions are his real worldview.
Correct posture: Ignore his Twitter noise and keep an eye on his invoices.
Sam Altman (OpenAI) — commercial perspective, with bias
Represents the AI application layer + the cutting edge of commercialization. He connects with the biggest enterprise customers every day to know which use cases can actually generate revenue and where the real bottlenecks in model iteration are.
But listen to Altman, be wary of one thing—he's financing. His descriptions of everything have elements of talking his book. How far is AGI, and Stargate's investment of 500 billion dollars — these are all narrative crafting to price the next round of funding.
Correct posture: Listen to the direction he's pointing, but give him at least 50% off his schedule.
Dario Amodei (Anthropic) — A Technician's Perspective
The most serious “technical + secure” in the AI industry. Anthropic can compete head-on with OpenAI in terms of cutting-edge models, but the power of speech is far less than valuation — which means Dario's statement had a signal and no noise.
Some of his long articles (“Machines of Loving Grace”, “On DeepSeek”) are rare serious thoughts in the AI era. He's not selling stories; he's explaining what he believes. Listening to Dario brings you closer to the truth than listening to Sam — because he doesn't need to hype.
Tracking methods: Anthropic's official blog, his long articles, and occasional podcasts. He doesn't tweet — that in itself is a signal.
Liang Wenfeng (DeepSeek) — An Anti-Consensus Perspective
It represents the true technical depth of AI in China. DeepSEEK-v3 and R1 prove one thing: in situations where computing power is limited, engineering optimization can approach the performance of closed source models. This fact changed the cost curve for the entire AI industry chain. (Especially the cost!!!)
Liang Wenfeng basically doesn't accept interviews, doesn't tweet, and doesn't do marketing. His worldview is hidden in DeepSeek's papers and model release notes — you have to read it, you can't wait for the media to feed it to you.
Why keep tracking: He represents an anti-consensus but extremely important point of view — “AI doesn't necessarily need infinite heaps of computing power.” The whole “AI = Infinite Capex” story would need to be re-evaluated if his argument in direction is true.
His presence itself is a hedge to your portfolio—an inverse indicator that reminds you “maybe NVIDIA's growth curve isn't that steep.”
Remember when DeepSeek-R1 was released in early 2025? NVIDIA fell 17% in a single day, and its market capitalization evaporated by 600 billion US dollars. If you only listen to Jensen and don't listen to Liang Wenfeng, then you have no idea why that drop. If you listen to both sides, you'll understand: this is the market revaluing the training cost curve, a correction or a breakdown — you won't be afraid to sell.
The diversity of worldviews determines whether you can stay calm when an accident happens.
5. Exercise: A training that allows you to act immediately
I said so many abstract things. Let me give you a specific exercise you can do tonight — it will change your understanding of investing. (Note: NVIDIA is just an example)
Exercise: Using NVIDIA as an example, list all of NVIDIA's investments over the past 12 months.
List them to:
CoreWeave ($2B upvote)
Lumentum ($2B)
Coherent ($2B)
Corning ($500M warrants)
Nokia ($1B)
Applied Digital (shareholding)
Then ask yourself — can I explain why NVIDIA invests in these targets?
What is CoreWeave? Why is NVIDIA locking down a GPU rental company?
Lumentum and Coherent are laser companies, why dual source?
Corning is a glass company, what does AI have to do with it?
Nokia is a telecommunications company, why is it a shareholder?
It's unclear — you don't have a worldview yet. You're just following the headlines. ;
Make it clear — you've already begun to look at the world according to the direction of capital flows.
This list is more important than any stock recommendation. It's not telling you “what to buy,” it's training you to “think”.
NVIDIA uses its own cash to tell you: “These are real bottlenecks” — if you study the industrial chain according to this list, you'll be 10 times more efficient.
6. How many directions does your worldview tell you
As you begin to follow the capex flow direction, you'll notice that the money is flowing in a few clear directions:
AI chips - The marginal cost of intelligence is declining, but total demand is growing faster, so the total number of chips continues to expand. But NVIDIA isn't the only winner. Broadcom snatched orders for hyperscaler self-development through ASIC, and TSMC is the fab for all players.
Storage—The larger the AI model, the greater the demand for HBM. A GPU without HBM is equivalent to being crippled. HBM is a structural shortage. SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron are oligarchs, with a production expansion cycle of 18-24 months.
Optical interconnection — When the number of GPUs exceeds 1 million, the physical limit of copper interconnection is broken, and light must be used. Corning is the relatively safest target — large cap stocks + real benefits.
Robotics — the cost structure of manual labor is being rewritten. But this market is far from mature, and Tesla Optimus has already delayed it twice. It's still too early to see mass production data until 2027.
Energy — this is the most underrated direction. AI is not a software revolution; it is an energy consumption revolution. A large data center consumes as much electricity as a mid-sized city. The US grid is unable to carry the expected AI demand, with transformers queuing for 5 years and gas turbines queuing for 7 years. So what is happening is that hyperscalers bypass power grids and build their own gas turbines + energy storage+ future small nuclear power.
Each of the five directions above is derived from capex flow to reverse promotion, not from news. This is a judgment based on a worldview.
7. From worldview to action
OK — you've established a worldview. The question now is: how to land?
A counterintuitive answer: the more clear your view of the world, the slower you actually act. (If you don't believe me, take a look at Grandpa Ba)
why? Because you're no longer being driven by FOMO. You know AI is a 10-year story — entering the market 3 months, 6 months, or even 12 months late doesn't matter on a 10-year scale. You don't need to win this wave; you want to win the next 30 years.
Step 1: Solve the basic financial structure
Before you think about “what to buy”, answer three questions:
Does the emergency fund cover 6 months of living expenses?
Have high-interest debts (credit cards, consumer loans) been paid off?
Did you buy insurance?
Investing in stocks without solving these three problems is just waiting to cut meat.
Step 2: Decide on the proportion of investment strategy
10% for the conservative version, 15% for the balanced version, 25% for the aggressive version.
Do not exceed 25%. Even if you're 100% convinced that AI is the future — risk management doesn't allow you to have more than a quarter of the mix on a single subject. It's not pessimism; it's discipline.
Step 3: Choose how to participate
For 80% of ordinary people, the correct answer is broad-based index ETF (QQQ, SPY, VOO). (The data also proves it)
NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, and Apple together account for more than 40% of the Nasdaq 100 — all of which are the core beneficiaries of the AI theme. If you buy QQQ, you automatically deploy AI, and at the same time spread the risk of a single target.
For 15% of people — themed ETFs (AIQ, SOXX). The fluctuation was 2-3 times broad-based, but more scattered than a single stock.
For 5% of people — individual stocks. The list is extremely short: NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, Meta, TSLA, Broadcom, TSMC. Here are 7. (Here's an example; of course, there are also some alphas; this is just a matter of opinion)
Don't extend to “high odds for upstream small trades”. It's for professionals, not for you.
Step 4: Enter the market in batches
If you decide to invest $100,000 in AI — don't buy it all at once today.
Buy for a fixed monthly amount over 6-12 months.
You don't know if today's high or low is it. If you buy over 12 months, you keep buying while the market falls 20% — your average cost will be significantly lower than a one-time purchase.
Boring strategies are often strategies to make money. Exciting strategies are often strategies that lose money.
Step 5: Write down the rules
Before entering the venue, write down the three rules, print them on the wall, or set them as a screen saver/cover for your phone:
I will start a monthly investment of [amount] on [date] and last [number of months]
I won't change my plans due to short-term fluctuations — whether up 20% or down 20%, I will continue to invest
I'll evaluate whether to adjust [after 3 years/over 30% of the combo/urgently needed money]
You need to know: The rational judgments you can write today are likely to be overshadowed by emotions when the market fluctuates drastically. And this rule printed on the wall is a contract between you and your future out of control yourself. (reference
(@0xPickleCati's rules of discipline)
8. Mistakes You Will Definitely Make in the Next 12 Months
Mistake 1: Stop fixed investing when the market plummets. On the day it dropped -15%, your instinctive response was to “stop now”. Wrong — this is the best time you should keep buying.
Mistake 2: Double your purchases when the market is booming. After three months of continuous growth, I wanted to “speed up progress” — this is chasing higher.
Mistake 3: Change “invest” to “watch” Swipe your account ten times a day after you start placing your bets — you've gone from investor to gambler. Uninstall the app and only read it once a month.
Mistake 4: Listening to grapevine news to increase positions. The group recommended “it must increase tenfold” — 99% is wrong, 1% you can't tell. Let's talk about everything except your list.
Mistake 5: Settle accounts. Beginners' favorite calculation is “how much did I earn”. The book profit isn't yours until you sell it. No accounts will be settled for 5 years.
These five mistakes all stem from the same root — your worldview isn't stable enough.
If you truly believe AI is the mainline for 10 years, you won't panic (and even happy to have cheap chips) by dropping 20%. If your judgment is a rental, drop 5% and you start to doubt your life.
The stability of your worldview determines the stability of your execution.
9. Lastly, why do you want to buy it?
Back to the question at the beginning — why would you want to buy it?
If you can give an answer of your own after reading this, then you are closer to the truth today than 95% of retail investors.
It's not because you're smarter than them. It's because you're willing to slow down, think clearly why, and then do what.
Remember, the smallest gap between ordinary people and large institutions, professional traders, and IQ150 is time. You, like them, only have 24 hours a day. We all need to wait the same amount of time to see the fruit ripen.
Every day, institutions face quarterly performance pressure, customer redemption pressure, and pressure to outperform peers. They must trade every day, must be timed, and must follow the topic.
You don't have to.
The 30-year compound return of regular fixed investment in global indices is about 8-10% — already outperforming 80% of actively managed funds.
You don't research anything, don't analyze anything, just mechanical execution — your long-term returns surpass most professional investors.
So why should you risk buying AI stocks?
Because we all want to feel like we're “part of the times.” Because we're all afraid of missing out on “obvious opportunities” like NVIDIA. Because our instincts tell us “inaction is failure”.
But when it comes to investing, “inaction” is often the strongest action.
First a worldview, then stocks. Buying without a worldview is essentially gambling.
Follow the capex, don't follow the remarks. How much real money a person is willing to spend determines his true beliefs about the future.
The money was not invested in a hurry. There will always be an opportunity, but the principal amount is only once.
You need to know that AI won't take you to death; AI won't have anything to do with you just because you enter the market three months late — but once your capital is all-in at the wrong time, it may take five years to pay back.
Those five years are your most expensive price.
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