Is ETH welcoming a “golden July”? Institutions and supply and demand may become new catalysts to push Ethereum into a “new cycle”
Comparing news, Steven Ehrlich, head of research at Sharplink, posted on the X platform that Ethereum (ETH) started strongly in July 2026 and has risen about 11% so far this month. Historical data shows that investors should pay attention to the ETH market performance in July. In the past 10 years, ETH achieved a total of 4 July gains, and the average increase in these 4 months reached 43%. Since 2020, July was also the strongest month for ETH, with an average increase of around 27%, ahead of other months.
The core strength of the ETH July market is not simply volatility, but the asymmetry between ups and downs: when it rose in July, the average increase was about 43%; in the year of decline, the average decline was only about 5% (2020 to 2025). Historically, ETH's strong performance in July has often been accompanied by Ethereum's own catalysts:
July 2020:54% increase, “DeFi Summer” launched, Compound launched COMP tokens, sparking a revenue mining boom. DeFi's total hedging volume (TVL) grew from around $1 billion to $4 billion in a few weeks, and DEX's monthly trading volume increased 174%, benefiting ETH as DeFi infrastructure.
July 2022:58% increase, the Ethereum Merge (The Merge) upgrade schedule was set on July 14, market sentiment rebounded from a low post LUNA and 3AC crisis, and around $337 million of short positions were liquidated in 3 days.
July 2025:49% increase, the US “GENIUS Act” was signed, and the monthly capital inflow of spot ETH ETFs reached a record of about 5.4 billion US dollars. At the same time, corporate capital accelerated the allocation of ETH, with a pledge rate of about 30% and falling exchange balances driving supply constraints.
The bullish months in ETH's history are usually driven by “Ethereum-specific catalysts+supply-demand imbalance”. For July 2026, Steven Ehrlich believes that the current market environment also has similar opportunities:
1. Institutional infrastructure is under construction. ETHLabs (protocol development) and Ethereum Institutional were recently launched to promote institutions to enter the on-chain ecosystem. Sharplink, BitMine, and Joe Lubin participate.
2. The Ethereum roadmap continues to be upgraded. Vitalik Buterin proposed the “Lean Ethereum” plan on July 4. The goal is to promote the simplification of the Ethereum architecture, increase speed, and enhance resistance to quantum security within the next 3 to 4 years. Its importance can be compared to The Merge.
3. Corporate capital continues to increase ETH, and digital asset reserve companies are still actively accumulating ETH. Sharplink currently holds 886,725 ETH, bought 10,000 more ETH last week, and stated that the goal is to increase the amount of ETH corresponding to each share.
Steven Ehrlich said that Ethereum is entering a new stage of development, and institutional adoption, technology upgrades, and capital allocation may become important factors driving the ETH market.
