Robinhood chain market: the faucet has cooled down, long term testing
Source: Rhythm BlockBeats
Author: Cookie
Original title: Is the Robinhood chain market worth paying attention to?
The day before yesterday, $CASHCAT was once close to a high of $230 million, but it has now pulled back to a market capitalization of about $150 million, a decline of nearly 35%.
Following the pullback of $CASHCAT, the market on the Robinhood chain began to chaos and cool down. Yesterday, $1 skyrocketed rapidly from a market capitalization of about $800,000 to a market capitalization of about $15 million due to news of suspected Robinhood CEO address purchases. Soon, however, the news was falsified. Currently, the coin has fallen back to a market value of just over 1 million US dollars.
The address was used by Robinhood CEO for a live demo, and 9 of the 12 mnemonic phrases were leaked during the live demo. The address was destroyed a year ago due to a partial leak of the mnemonic phrase.
Another coin that made a big splash yesterday was $SCATMAN. The hacker stole SpaceXAI's official promotion, added subsidiary certification to the X account that mocked Sam Altman's coin, and retweeted a tweet. At its peak, the coin's market capitalization surpassed $2.5 million; currently, there is less than $100,000 left.
Due to the $CASHCAT pullback itself, the overall sentiment on the Robinhood chain has declined somewhat. Coupled with “suspected wallet purchases” and situations where hackers steal social media accounts and post rug pulls, which are seen as “signs of the end,” some players have already begun to sound “the end of the Robinhood market.”
Is it really over? To answer this question, we need to combine several market segments since this year to give short-term and long-term answers separately.
Short term: normal decline
If we review the most immediate catalyst for $CASHCAT's surge, one is this tweet from Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev:
Also on the morning of July 8, Vlad followed $CASHCAT's official promotion on X, causing the coin to instantly soar from a market capitalization of 10 million dollars to a market value of nearly 50 million US dollars, and continue to rise all the way up.
These two catalysts are indispensable. One conveyed the attitude that “Robinhood CEO supports the creation of meme coins on its own chain,” and the other conveyed “CASHCAT is the leader selected by Robinhood.”
Back on July 2, when the Robinhood mainnet was first launched, there were players who followed this new chain, but there weren't many. People mainly followed the “new chain gold mining” logic. No one could predict it. Just less than a week later, Robinhood CEO will personally step down, bringing everyone's expectations to a very, very high level.
Because of this change in expectations “from the ground to the sky,” which was completely unexpected, the market began to anticipate the Robinhood chain market again, and gave it a lot. For example, “the Robinhood chain can bring all retail stock traders to the chain”, “Robinhood on CASHCAT can replicate DOGE and SHIB”, etc. The rapid rise in $CASHCAT further intensified the FOMO sentiment in the market.
However, today's market also lays some hidden dangers. The hidden danger is that apart from $CASHCAT, Dragon 2 did not appear very clearly. This is very easy to remind us of other market conditions this year:
The ETH mainnet market brought by “Space Dog” $ASTEROID doesn't have Dragon 2, but the good news is that there are Uniswap v4 hook narrative targets such as $UPEG and $SATO as a supplement to the market
The Solana market brought about by $ANSEM has no Dragon 2; only those related to Ansem can reap some gains
In these two segments of the market, everyone hoped that the leader would reach a market capitalization of 1 billion US dollars, then spill over into other narratives and expand the scope of PvE targets, but none of them were able to do so. The main reason for this is that there is still insufficient capital in the market, and the market value of 1 billion US dollars is difficult to rise in the current market environment. Second, the explosive rise in these leading labels all stemmed from sudden attention events. “Space Dog” was because Musk promised to use it as the SpaceX mascot, and $ANSEM was due to Ansem's own claim. The rise stems from attention events, and subsequent increases require events with higher traffic as a driving force, yet neither of these two targets has ever had an attentional event that is more likely to catalyze FOMO.
Attention events are unsustainable and cannot be amplified, leading to the nature of the market being “arbitrage” rather than “long-lasting.” When almost all active players on the chain went to the Robinhood chain to dig for gold, everyone carried out various archaeology and perspectives on Robinhood's tweets, their favorite meme image $JUGGERNAUT, which was tweeted and replied to by Robinhood CEO, the $GME market that Robinhood “unplugged” personally destroyed back then, and $WALLET suspected to have been deployed by Robinhood employees themselves. In fact, this situation is $ The spread of the CASHCAT sentiment is a bit like Japan's nuclear spill many years ago, which caused many people to go to supermarkets to grab salt, regardless of whether they really needed salt or not, so let's talk about it. If you use it, you can make money; if you don't use it, it's useless.
Everyone is chasing the next target that could be interacted with by Robinhood and betting on the unknown. This clearly shows that the current meme market is almost entirely an “attention prediction market,” and the short-term decline is reasonable. Because of the decline in $CASHCAT, the leader, Robinhood didn't have any more to make people crazy about it. There are “conspiracy” targets behind it, such as $JUGERNAUT and $HOODRAT, which have not been able to break through and stabilize the $20 million market capitalization mark, which also confirms from the side that the Robinhood chain market is not much different from the $ASTEROID and $ANSEM markets up to now.
At this stage, aside from “conspiracy,” targets that can remain relatively stable are also likely to be interacted with by Robinhood over a longer period of time, or even if Robinhood doesn't directly interact, it can have its own story or attract attention. For example, $GME remains in the $2 to 3 million dollar market capitalization range. It is expected that Robinhood will likely mention $GME again in the future, or that events such as changes in GameStop's own stock price and the sudden return of Roaring Cat may catalyze the rise. Another example is $JUGGERNAUT. After all, Robinhood CEO mentioned that this is his favorite meme image, and if he mentions it again, he may start a considerable rise again.
But this ambush is very “on the left,” betting on possible attention, and has nothing to do with traditional meme coin community building. Including everyone's expectations that Robinhood will continue to support the meme coin ecosystem or launch meme coins on its own chain in the future, these are all too early and too optimistic. However, it is through this optimism that huge profits such as $CASHCAT can be obtained. If you don't buy a lottery ticket, you won't win.
Long-term: The existence of competition makes people look forward to it
The “Space Dog” market is over, and players are returning to Solana. BSC's brief “coin exchange” market ended, and everyone went back to Solana. Solana's advantage in the meme coin market has somewhat reached the level of user habits. If you play memes, go to Solana, and it has begun to become a habit or culture.
Because of this predictable competition, Robinhood, a chain that has just started, has evocative long-term expectations. “What if the Robinhood chain becomes the next Base, Solana, or even surpasses, and the meme bull market fully returns and occurs on it?”
It's not impossible; after all, stock memeization is now intensifying, and Robinhood was the home of retail investors back then, where the GameStop incident occurred. Their user base itself is the part of the shareholders who accept, are accustomed to, and even like meme transactions. If the $GME meme coin on the Robinhood chain rises all the way up and is promoted through channels that can reach traditional investors, a similar situation may not necessarily bring users and funds to the chain.
Meme coins, or transactions around memes, are a general trend. Both positive and negative revolve around fluctuations in market sentiment; meme coins only make all of this more direct and pleasant to hear. As the market expands, bad memories such as diversion, fraud, etc. will naturally disappear, because players no longer need to grab food from a limited pool.
Long-term expectations for the Robinhood chain are expectations for Robinhood's long-term and deep support for meme coins, and for meme coins to have a larger audience.
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