Grayscale: If the Federal Reserve doesn't raise interest rates, Bitcoin may have bottomed out

Comparing news, Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl wrote that the market currently has two main opinions on when the Bitcoin bear market will end: one is to follow a four-year cycle, and the other is to view Bitcoin as a mature asset driven by macroeconomic factors.

According to the four-year cycle perspective, the halving event is still the core driver of Bitcoin's price cycle. Historically, Bitcoin usually bottomed out about a year after the top of the cycle and about 2.5 years after halving, with an average cumulative retracement of about 80%. Following this pattern, Bitcoin is still likely to decline further in this round and form a bottom in September or October.

Another view is that in the future, the price of Bitcoin, like other major assets, will be more affected by economic growth, real interest rates, and changes in the Federal Reserve's policy. The past few rounds of the Bitcoin bear market were usually accompanied by a slowdown in economic growth or a rise in real interest rates. This round of decline also occurred in the context of rising expectations of interest rate hikes and rising real interest rates.

Pandl said it is more in agreement with the macro-driven view. If the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates and economic growth remains stable, the price of Bitcoin may have bottomed out.