Oil prices are approaching the psychological threshold of $100, and Trump faces the dilemma of progressing and withdrawing from the Iran conflict

Comparative news is that as international oil prices once again approach the critical psychological threshold of 100 US dollars/barrel, the policy tools that US President Trump can adopt during the escalation phase of the Iran conflict are being reduced, and the energy market is facing greater uncertainty.

Analysts said that global emergency reserves of oil and fuel have declined sharply, and the risk of shipping in the Red Sea continues to heat up. Should the conflict expand further, the US may face two options: expand military action or accept Iran's actual control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices previously topped 100 US dollars/barrel due to the Houthis attack on Red Sea shipping in Yemen, then fell back. Energy analysts warn that if the Strait of Mande and the Strait of Hormuz are affected at the same time, oil prices may rise again to around $124 per barrel in August.

Currently, there are limited policy tools available in the US:

The US strategic oil reserve (SPR) has fallen to about 311 million barrels, the lowest level since 1983;

US shale oil production and refining capacity is close to high levels;

There is limited space to release more strategic reserves;

Measures such as suspending fuel taxes require congressional approval.

Analysts pointed out that 100 US dollars/barrel not only represents price changes, but also has a psychological impact on the market, which will reinforce investors' concerns about the energy crisis and the risk of inflation.

At the same time, Iran believes that it has bargaining chips on the Strait of Hormuz issue and demands greater control. According to some analysts, the core choice Trump is currently facing is to continue to escalate military operations or seek solutions through negotiations.

Market sources said that in the context of the US midterm elections approaching, high oil prices may further increase the Trump administration's political pressure, and the final solution still depends on whether the US and Iran can reach a new agreement.