Bitcoin pullback hits treasury companies: TD Cowen cuts Nakamoto's target price by 58% and maintains a buying rating

Comparing news, Wall Street investment bank TD Cowen lowered the target price of Bitcoin treasury company Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA), reducing the target price after stock splitting adjustments from $40 to $17, a 58% drop, but still maintains a buying rating.

Analyst TD Cowen said that the adjustment was mainly due to the pressure on Nakamoto's high-debt capital structure due to falling Bitcoin prices. Although the new target price of $4.65 still means about 275% room to rise from the current share price, the company's stock is more sensitive to Bitcoin price fluctuations.

TD Cowen predicts that Bitcoin will rebound to $100,000 by the end of 2026, which is about 25% lower than the all-time high of $126,000 set in October last year. Meanwhile, the agency expects Nakamoto to suspend further Bitcoin purchases until 2027.

Analysts pointed out that Nakamoto's core value still comes from its Bitcoin holdings. Currently, the company holds 4,467 BTC worth about US$290 million, ranking 22nd among listed companies in the world. However, the company's debt and preferred stock financing structure have also reduced the asset value that ordinary shareholders can enjoy.

Recently, Nakamoto has completed a number of financial adjustments, including repaying approximately $45 million in debt, extending the $105 million principal period to June 2027, reducing financing costs, and approving a $25 million share repurchase plan.

Furthermore, the company has closed the medical clinic business it previously operated, and will focus on Bitcoin media, asset management and consulting services in the future.

According to the data, NAKA's stock price has fallen by more than 71% since this year, and Bitcoin fell by about 26% during the same period. The market's focus is shifting from continuing to buy BTC to Bitcoin treasury companies' balance structures and financing capabilities.