Bitunix Analyst: Cooling Inflation Data Isn't Changing the Real Source of Pressure on Global Assets
Comparatively, the monthly PCE rate in the US unexpectedly turned negative in June, the monthly increase in core PCE was only 0.1%, and the annualized GDP growth fell short of market expectations, which seemed to provide evidence of cooling inflation and economic slowdown. However, if the GDP structure is dismantled, private final demand, consumption, and investment in AI-related enterprises remained strong, indicating that economic momentum did not deteriorate significantly. This also explains why the market is not fully betting on easing due to weakening data, but instead focuses on policy credibility and global capital costs.
What is more noteworthy is that the Japanese government is suspected of cooperating with the US side in exchange rate intervention, and South Korea is simultaneously announcing US dollar sales intervention. Although the Bank of Japan keeps interest rates unchanged, there are still members advocating interest rate hikes. The Bank of England also has three members supporting interest rate hikes, showing that central banks are still cautious or even hawkish in the face of inflation and exchange rate pressure. This means that the global liquidity environment has not fundamentally changed due to the cooling of US inflation data in a single month, but that financial conditions have been maintained through various forms of tightening.
On the other hand, the fundamentals of the technology industry remain stable. Amazon's AWS revenue is better than expected, Oracle continues to expand cooperation with Google, and OpenAI once again lowered model prices. AI competition has gradually extended from model capabilities to cost efficiency and enterprise application penetration. In contrast, Apple's weak performance in the Chinese market and service business indicates that terminal consumer demand is still divided, and the valuation differences between AI infrastructure beneficiaries and terminal hardware manufacturers may expand further in the future.
Looking ahead to the future market, the market really needs to observe not only whether the US cuts or raises interest rates, but whether the world's major central banks simultaneously maintain a tight financial environment through interest rates, exchange rate intervention, and policy communication. If expectations of Japan's subsequent interest rate hikes continue to heat up and the Asian Central Bank continues to intervene in the foreign exchange market, global arbitrage capital flows and US dollar liquidity may continue to be adjusted, while AI investment and corporate profits will still be important fundamentals supporting risky assets. The tension between the two forces is expected to keep market fluctuations at a relatively high level in the third quarter.
