The data confirms that the copycat is dead: only 4% can outperform Bitcoin holdings, of which 3 become platform coins

Comparing news, Blockworks Research/Messari spread the harsh odds of altcoin investment in front of the market in the latest report. The data shows that between 2020 and 2025, of the 1,972 tokens that surpassed 50 million dollars in circulation, only about 4.1% eventually outperformed Bitcoin, which is equivalent to only about 1 out of every 24 tokens entering the eyes of investors, only about 1 can beat the BTC passive holding strategy.

The report, entitled “One in Twenty-Four: The Harsh Realities of Liquid Token Investing,” uses a sample of all tokens that have reached a market value of 50 million dollars. The data sources are CoinGecko and Blockworks Research, and projects that have died out and been removed are included.

According to the report, if the price at the end of the month after first reaching a market value of 50 million US dollars is used as the entry price, and if the token falls below 10% of the entry price, it is found that the decline in newly issued tokens has accelerated markedly in recent years. Within about 30 months of the 2024 batch, nearly 90% of the tokens have fallen by more than 90% from the entry price; the 2021, 2022, and 2023 batches also showed a similar downward path.

The median number of token batches from year to year was even more impressive. As of June 2026, the 2020 median batch was reported at -94%, outperforming BTC by only 2%; the median batch report for 2021 and 2022 was -99%; 2023 was -97%; and 2024 was -98%. The 2025 batch was temporarily -88%, outperforming the BTC ratio by 19%, but the report chart specifically shows that this batch is still at a young stage, and the performance after the full cycle remains to be seen.

Notably, the performance of established tokens that entered the market before 2020 was relatively exceptional. The report chart shows that this group of survivors reported a median rate of about -58% since entering the market, outperforming BTC by 12%, which is significantly better than most new token batches since 2020.

A few winners also showed a high level of concentration. The report chart shows that of the 22 tokens that have a history of at least 24 months and have outperformed BTC, centralized exchange platform coins account for 32%; of the 1,305 corresponding samples, platform coins only account for 2%.