SemiAnalysis: Gemini has withdrawn from frontier competition, GCP is speeding up profits from selling TPU to third parties

Comparing news, the research firm SemiAnalysis published an analysis indicating that Google DeepMind is no longer in the ranks of cutting-edge AI laboratories. The week before, DeepMind co-founder Demis Hassabis retired from daily operations, and core members such as Google's chief scientist Jeff Dean and Gemini co-leader Oriol Vinyals left their jobs to establish a new lab, Discovery Loop. Analysts believe that the long-term game between Gemini and GCP over the distribution of computing power within Google ended with GCP winning.

According to SemiAnalysis, Gemini 3.5 Pro has been cancelled, Gemini 3.6 Flash performance is not as good as China's leading open source model and Grok 4.5. Currently, Gemini has dropped to 8th or 9th place in the big model rankings. Meanwhile, GCP is selling large quantities of TPU to competitors such as Anthropic, and has secured long-term lease and sales contracts for hundreds of thousands of TPUs over the past 9 months. The Tokenomics model estimates that Gemini's own ARR is around $12 billion, while GCP's third-party AI cloud service revenue will exceed $73 billion by the end of 2027, and TPU system sales will contribute an additional $120 billion. GCP's latest quarterly growth rate was 82%, and is expected to accelerate to more than 100% in 2027 due to sales of TPU systems, contributing approximately $3 to Google's earnings per share.