Goldman Sachs: The July CPI is expected to be slightly lower than expected, but the rebound in oil prices will make it difficult for the market to fully relax

According to comparative news, the Goldman Sachs economic team expects the core CPI to rise 0.19% month-on-month in July, slightly lower than the market consensus 0.2%; the year-on-year growth rate will be 2.47%, which is also lower than the 2.5% consensus forecast. In terms of nominal CPI, Goldman Sachs expects a month-on-month increase of only 0.05%, lower than market expectations of 0.1%, which mainly reflects the impact of the previous decline in energy prices.

However, the risk of inflation has not completely disappeared. Goldman Sachs said that this forecast corresponds to a 0.26% month-on-month increase in core PCE in July, and portfolio management and other categories may contribute significantly to the increase. Looking ahead to the next few months, the bank expects the monthly increase in core CPI to be around 0.2%, housing inflation will continue to slow down, the contribution of tariff-related price increases will decline, and the pressure on aviation fuel prices that previously boosted airline ticket prices will fall.

The US CPI for July will be announced at 20:30 Beijing time on August 12. The market is waiting for this data to provide the next direction for US bond yields and technology stock rotation.

Before the CPI was announced, the 10-year US Treasury yield had returned to around 4.70%, and oil prices had returned above $87. Goldman Sachs warned that if oil market disturbances and rising oil prices continue to exceed expectations, the risk of inflation will be biased upward.