Analyst: BTC has been suppressed by short-term holders' cost lines for 2 consecutive months, and the market is in a weak balance

According to Twitter, trader Murphy (@Murphychen888) posted an article on the X platform that the Realized Price for Bitcoin short-term holders (< 3m) who have held the coin for less than 3 months is currently around $67,900. Since June 20, BTC's rebound has continued to be suppressed after approaching this cost line, and it has now been close to 2 months. At the same time, the slope of the cost curve is close to zero, indicating that related chip exchange activities continue to decline.

According to the analysis, a similar situation occurred at the end of the bear market in 2018 and 2022. At that time, BTC was suppressed by <3m in price for about 3 consecutive months, then fluctuated sharply due to the BCH hashrate war and the FTX incident, respectively. Continued suppression of this cost line may reflect that the market is in a state of weak structural balance. With any external force, the weak balance will be broken.