“1011 Insider Whale” agent: Follow SpaceX's subsequent unban window, Bitcoin is still waiting for a breakthrough signal
In comparison, “1011 Insider Whale” agent Garrett Jin released the latest weekly market analysis report to review recent asset trends such as the Korean stock market, gold, Bitcoin, and SpaceX:
Regarding SpaceX, Garrett Jin said that the team previously warned to pay attention to buying opportunities on the day the restricted stock ban was lifted on August 6. At that time, the ban on about 9115 million internal shares was lifted, and the size of tradable shares more than doubled. At the same time, about 35% of tradable shares were in an empty state, and the market generally expected stock prices to be under pressure.
However, SpaceX then bucked the trend, with a cumulative increase of about 22% over the two days, increasing its market capitalization by about $327 billion, and regaining an IPO price of $135. Based on the previous hint position of around $110, the weekly increase was about 35%. Garrett Jin believes that the large-scale lifting of the ban combined with high short positions has instead become a market catalyst, and the market absorbed the selling pressure ahead of schedule. However, SpaceX continues to face the lifting of the ban, including about 319 million shares on August 20, and about 700 million shares each expected to be released in September and October, so the area around $160 is more suitable as a profitable area rather than a rising position.
In terms of macro assets, Garrett Jin said that the recent increase in gold exceeded expectations, rising 7.8% in a week, hitting a maximum of $4,467, mainly driven by weakening expectations of the US dollar, weak US employment data, and lower market expectations of interest rate hikes. However, the short-term gold trend is already overcrowded, and the pullback may provide an opportunity to increase positions in the next round. In contrast, Bitcoin's performance is relatively weak. It is currently fluctuating around $6.36,000, and is still limited by the $62,500 support and $65,000-$70,000 resistance range. But he believes that the bottom structure that started at $57,700 in July is still gradually forming.
On the Korean market, Garrett Jin said that the team had previously waited for SK Hynix (000660) to fall back to a key support area before rearranging. The stock recently stepped back to around 1.42 million won, hitting the second support area of the previous “double bottom” structure, then rebounded rapidly. On August 13, it once rose to 1.634 million won during the intraday period, and closed up 5.9%. He believes that the Korean stock market is currently still in a phase of broad volatility, rather than a new round of trending markets. The previous short-term transactions of overseas capital have not been converted into long-term allocation, and the pressure brought about by leveraged ETFs is still affecting the market. Strategically, Garrett Jin sees the area around 1.63 million won as the first stage take-profit area, and the next target is around 1.85 million won.
