Analysis: BTC's high-ranking chips have been reduced by 41.5% in 2025, and the biggest supply pressure in the market may be easing

Comparing the news, on-chain analyst Murphy said that currently all chips bought in BTC in 2025 have been held at a loss since then. Therefore, in addition to wallet migration, a decrease in chip size in 2025 is likely to mean that holders will cut meat and sell it.

According to the data, up to now, there are about 4.77 million BTC chips left purchased in 2025, down 41.5% from the peak in December last year. Judging from the downward trend, this group went through two stages: chips declined rapidly before February of this year, and the decline rate slowed significantly after February, but remained at a certain slope.

Murphy believes that 2025 chips may be the largest potential supply side of the current market. In contrast, BTC chips formed in 2024, 2023, and 2022 are still floating and have basically completed the release of high-position slots. The downward slope of the curve is gradually flattening, which means that the selling pressure on long-term holders is weakening.

Historical data shows that in the past two lower rounds of the bear market, there was a marked decline in high-ranking chips: at the bottom of the bear market in 2022, high-ranking purchase chips decreased by about 51% in 2021; at the bottom of the bear market in 2018, high-level chips decreased by about 62% in 2017.

Referring to the historical cycle, Murphy believes that at the bottom of this bear market, the decline in high-ranking chips in 2025 may be in the 50%-60% range. The current 41.5% drop means there is still some room for release. However, the judgment did not take into account BTC purchased by institutions such as spot ETFs and MicroStrategy. Most of these chips have been locked down for a long time, which may reduce actual market supply pressure.