Teaser: US retail sales data for July will be released tonight. If stronger than expected, it will suppress the possibility of interest rate cuts

Comparative news is that after the US CPI and PPI data were released one after another this week, market sentiment has not been completely digested. Tonight at 20:30 (UTC+8), we will also welcome the US retail sales data for July, known as scary data. The market currently expects retail sales to increase by only 0.1% month-on-month, and core retail sales (excluding highly volatile items such as automobiles) are also expected to be moderate. This data will directly reflect the will and purchasing power of US residents, and is a key weather vane for judging whether the economy has reached a soft landing or stalling.

In the sensitive window where differences within the Federal Reserve have clearly intensified and international gold prices have retreated from the $4,400 per ounce mark, if the data is significantly stronger than expected, it may reinforce the narrative that the economy is still resilient, push up the dollar and suppress expectations of interest rate cuts; if it is significantly weaker than expected, it may increase concerns about the recession and further boost precious metals and risk aversion.