Bitunix Analyst: Federal Reserve Minutes and PMI Relapsed, Hormuz Situation Affects Oil Prices and Global Risk Appetites
Comparing news, this week the market will welcome the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting, August PMI, and financial reports from retail giants such as Walmart and Target. Recently, US CPI, PPI, and retail sales data are weak. The market's pricing for the Fed's September rate hike has dropped to about 27%. Goldman Sachs also believes that a September rate hike is very unlikely, and the pressure on short-term interest rates has eased somewhat. However, the FOMC minutes still need to observe the attitude of officials on inflation and energy prices. If the minutes send strong signals, interest rate expectations may still be repriced.
On the other hand, whether commercial shipping can actually resume in the Strait of Hormuz will directly affect oil prices and inflation expectations. According to reports, Iran and Oman have made progress on shipping routes, but the actual traffic volume is still far below normal, so it is still diplomatic progress rather than the elimination of supply risks. If shipping continues to resume, the crude oil risk premium is expected to fall; conversely, if negotiations are blocked or the maritime conflict heats up, the rise in oil prices will increase pressure on global inflation and interest rates.
Meanwhile, US stocks remain high, but the US consumer side has shown some weakness. This week's earnings reports from Walmart, Target, and Home Depot will further verify consumer resilience. Currently, the biggest contradiction in the market is that corporate profits are still strong, but high oil prices, cooling employment, and living costs are reducing the spending capacity of some consumers. If consumption remains resilient, AI and corporate profits can still support US stock valuations; if consumption deteriorates further, the market will re-evaluate the sustainability of corporate profits and high valuations.
Overall, the core of the market this week is not a single expectation of interest rate hikes or interest rate cuts, but whether falling monetary policy pressure can offset the pressure on capital costs caused by energy prices, fiscal financing, and long-term interest rates. FOMC minutes, PMI, retail earnings reports, and Hormuz shipping conditions will jointly determine the ability of risky assets to withstand a high valuation environment.
