Analysis: If Bitcoin falls below $49,400, long-term holders will lose money overall. Currently, the sell-off has reached its lowest level in the cycle

Comparing news, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. According to the published analysis, on-chain data shows that the cost base for Bitcoin long-term holders is $49,400, and the corresponding current price multiplier is 1.3 times. Bitcoin has been in the low risk zone between 1.5 times the long-term holders' cost base for 78 consecutive days, and the corresponding price of 1.5 times is around $74,100. The current supply for long-term holders is 16.35 million units, which is only 58,000 units below the historical peak of 16.41 million units on July 30. There has only been a decline in supply in 2 of the past 15 days, indicating that the sell-off frequency of the group is close to its lowest level. Analysts point out that these two signals point in common: valuations are still low compared to the long-term holders' cost base, while long-term holders show little sign of continued distribution.

Analysts emphasized that this combination is a constructive supply structure, but it does not in itself constitute an independent sign that a new round of growth has begun. The current situation shows that long-term holders as a whole are still unprofitable (the price is about 30% higher than the cost base), and the market is still in the low part of the historical valuation range, but further confirmation from the demand side and price side is still needed if the price is to develop a new upward trend. If the price falls below $49,400, long-term holders will move into an overall unrealized loss and enter a lower risk zone from a valuation perspective, but from the perspective of market conditions, this will mean a significant increase in pressure on long-term holders.