Analysis: 8 of the 12 Bitcoin capitulation indicators have been triggered, but historical data has yet to show bottom confirmation

Comparing news, crypto asset management company VanEck's latest report shows that Bitcoin is currently releasing a “capitulation signal” similar to the end of the historical bear market, but the data indicates that the bottom of the market has not been fully confirmed.

VanEck said that of the 12 Bitcoin market capitulation indicators currently being tracked, 8 have entered extreme regions, and 12 indicators have also reached trigger levels in the past three months. These indicators mainly measure market pressure factors such as Bitcoin price retracement, miner profitability, and the loss ratio of coin holders.

However, historical performance did not show that these signals meant that a short-term bottom had formed. VanEck data shows that when 8 to 12 indicators are triggered simultaneously in history, Bitcoin's average return over the next 90 days is about 12.8%, and the 180-day average return is about 32%, all lower than Bitcoin's long-term average (15.2% for 90 days and 36.3% for 180 days). The relevant signals only showed a comparative advantage over a one-year cycle.

Bitcoin is currently down about 49% from its record high in October 2025. The price has recently fluctuated in the range of $62,300 to $66,500. The actual 30-day volatility has dropped to 27.2%, far below the long-term average of about 80%. Miner pressure is still an important risk factor in the current market. The daily revenue of the Bitcoin network fell by about 46% compared to last year, and mining difficulty fell 18.3% from the peak in November 2025, which is one of the biggest declines since China's mining ban in 2021. Some inefficient mining machines have withdrawn from the market.

VanEck believes that the current capitulation index is more suitable as a tool to determine the market cycle position rather than a short-term bottoming signal. Investors should pay more attention to cycles of one year or more based on these indicators rather than expecting an immediate strong rebound within the next few months. (CoinDesk)

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