Opinion: Bitcoin may welcome a historic upward environment, and the US dollar index is in a structural decline

Comparing the news, Strive CEO Matt Cole wrote on the X platform that he has been believing that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is in a structural downward trend for more than 10 years, and it may currently be approaching a larger downward phase, which will have a significant impact on Bitcoin. If this judgment holds true, the next 5 to 7 years could be one of the most favorable macro-environments in Bitcoin's history. He pointed out that the long-term downward trend in the US dollar index since the late 1960s is not only reflected in “lower highs and lower lows” in technical form, but is also supported by US fiscal fundamentals.

Matt Cole pointed out that Bitcoin's major bull markets have been accompanied by the weakening of the US dollar. During the 2017 market, the DXY fell from about 103 to 88; in the 2020-2021 cycle, the US dollar index fell from about 103 to around 89; while Bitcoin reached a record high in 2025, the US dollar also weakened from about 108. The dollar's decline has remained limited in the past few rounds, and the dollar may now be approaching a multi-year downward cycle similar to the mid-1980s and early 2000s to the global financial crisis. Its benchmark judgment is that the dollar index is likely to continue to decline for the next 3 to 7 years, even challenging the low of around 70 in 2008.

Matt Cole believes that if the US dollar experiences a real long-term structural breakdown, Bitcoin will usher in a macro environment that has never been experienced before. He said that most current Bitcoin predictions in the market are still based on past performance, but Bitcoin has yet to experience continued impetus from the “long-term decline cycle of the US dollar.” At the same time, he mentioned that the US Treasury recently announced that it will at least double the scale of long-term treasury bond repurchases, while long-term US bond yields are under pressure and the US dollar weakens at the same time, which further strengthens its long-term judgment.

Matt Cole concluded, “People may still not be bullish enough about Bitcoin for the next 5 to 7 years.” He believes that if the long-term trend of the US dollar, which has been formed over 45 years, finally breaks downward, Bitcoin may usher in a macroeconomic downturn that far exceeds the historical cycle.