Analysis: This round of BTC's rise is accompanied by a decline in OI, and spot demand is showing for the first time

Comparing news, on-chain data analyst Murphy wrote that this round of BTC's rise was “a bit different”: the scale of futures liquidation reached a record, but unclosed positions (OI) declined at the same time. The price increase was mainly driven by short stop-loss or liquidated purchases to close positions. It was a liquidated stock position rather than a net exposure to newly opened leveraged positions. If it is driven only by liquidation, the price often falls back after being inserted; after this increase, the price stagnates, indicating that other spot funds have taken over.

Murphy pointed out that if contract bulls lead, OI usually rises and rates rise, but this round of OI has almost completely declined, and no new leverage has entered the market on a large scale. The exchange's spot relative volume (SRV) reached 2.94 from August 19 to 20, which is about 3 times the average for nearly 30 days. Similar volumes in the past two years have mostly occurred during a downturn or a bull market. This is different from the situation where leverage was dominated by the rebound to about 96,000 US dollars in January and the rebound to about 82,000 US dollars in May.

He stressed that spot demand is only the first potential sign since entering a bear market. Combined with price challenges to the short-term holder cost line (STH-RP) and the sellers' exhaustion index entering an extreme zone, it is not enough to determine a trend reversal.