灰度 · 2916

Grayscale: Bitcoin's current price may provide a favorable entry point for long-term investors

Comparing news, Zach Pandl, head of Grayscale Research, wrote that investors are generally not advised to try to choose a time, but judging from the three aspects of structural adoption trends, market cycles, and macro risks, the current Bitcoin price may provide a favorable entry point for investors with a long-term investment perspective. Grayscale believes that the continued growth of government debt, the expansion of the application of blockchain technology in financial services, and intergenerational changes in portfolio construction indicate that the long-term adoption trend of Bitcoin is still stable. Currently, the current Bitcoin bear market has continued for about 10 months. Previously, the bear market usually lasted 11 to 12 months, and the market may have entered the late stage of the bear market. The macroeconomic environment remains a major source of uncertainty. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates recently, Bitcoin may fall further; if interest rates are not raised, the market may have hit the bottom. Grayscale indicates that structural adoption, cycle position, and overall macro outlook are currently relatively favorable, but future performance is still uncertain.

1m ago

Grayscale: Bitcoin may have bottomed out, and this week's rise is a key sign of cycle reversal

Comparing the news, Grayscale wrote that this week could be a turning point for Bitcoin. Judging from historical data, Bitcoin usually bottoms out after falling about 80% from the top of the cycle. Meanwhile, in the recent round of the bear market, Bitcoin fell about 50% from the high point of the cycle. Up to this stage, its decline was less than in all previous cycles. Until now, the market has been discussing whether Bitcoin will experience a new round of decline in the fourth quarter of 2026. Although the market is still risky, this round of gains this week may indicate that Bitcoin has formed a more solid bottom.

4h ago

Grayscale: New US SEC regulations may benefit ETH, SOL, and BNB; on-chain issuance will drive the return of value

Comparatively, according to Bitcoin.com, Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl pointed out in the analysis report that if the SEC's proposed new regulation of crypto assets (Crypto Assets) is finally implemented, Ethereum, Solana, and BNB Chain may become the main beneficiaries. The proposal establishes two exemption routes: projects with financing under $5 million can be exempted from registration for 4 years, projects with financing under 75 million US dollars can be exempted from registration for 1 year, and a conditional safe haven. The aim is to provide a clear domestic compliance path for the issuance of crypto assets and reduce issuers' motivation to operate overseas. Pandl pointed out that tokenized financing was previously blocked due to vague regulations. If the new regulations stimulate issuance activities, it will bring more US issuers and investors to go online and drive value back to underlying networks and native tokens such as ETH, SOL, and BNB. The proposal is still in the comment phase, and the final rules may be adjusted due to public comments and SEC review, and larger network activity does not guarantee a rise in the token price. This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

9h agoburnking

ZEC has increased 20 times in a year, and the strongest privacy coin favors the intensive catalytic market

Comparative news, according to HTX market data, ZEC rose above 833 US dollars for a short time this morning to set a new historical record. The increase reached 67% in the past 7 days, 230% in the past 180 days, and 1970% in the past year. Recent major benefits include: · Grayscale submitted the fourth S-3 amendment, promoted the conversion of Zcash Trust into a spot ETF (pseudo ticker ZCSH), and disclosed that DCG subsidiaries were in non-binding discussions to inject about 200,000 ZEC (worth about $110 million at the time). · Cypherpunk Technologies, supported by Winklevoss, launched the world's largest ZEC mining cluster, controlling about 18% of the entire network's computing power and continuing to increase the ZEC treasury. · The Ironwood Network Upgrade (NU6.3) has been launched to fix previous Orchard privacy pool vulnerabilities, strengthen the security and verifiability of the shielded pool, and promote capital migration and restoration of ecological confidence. Combined with rising privacy narratives and market bearish pressure, ZEC has become one of the strongest performing privacy coins in this round. Currently, the price is still in a high fluctuation range.

17h ago

ZEC rose more than 29% in 24 hours, the price of the currency approached an all-time high, and the market capitalization rose to US$12.46 billion

Comparative news, according to HTX market data, ZEC rose more than 29% in 24 hours and is now quoted at $735.47, approaching the previous all-time high of $750, and its market capitalization has risen to $12.46 billion. Earlier, on June 5, Zooko Wilcox, founder of Zcash, published a long article with Jason McGee and Taylor Hornby, detailing that the Orchard pool, the project's newest privacy layer, had key integrity flaws and could be used to create an unlimited amount of counterfeit ZEC in a hidden environment. Previously, the Zcash ecosystem had an urgent network upgrade and repair, but after the detailed impact was disclosed, the ZEC price fluctuated drastically, and at one point hit the downward pin of $250.12. On August 20, Grayscale submitted the fourth revised document to convert its Zcash Trust into an ETF, to change the name of the fund and list it on the NYSE under the ZCSH code. According to the documents, DCG International Investments Ltd., a subsidiary of its parent company Digital Currency Group (DCG), is discussing injecting approximately 200,000 ZEC into the fund.

19h ago

Grayscale: Zcash's privacy features may be just what is needed in the AI era, if the market share rises to 5% of value or a 9x increase

Comparing news, Grayscale released a Zcash research report stating that as the development of AI brings new methods of financial monitoring, the privacy characteristics of Zcash may become a necessary function in the AI era. Zcash blocks transactions through zero-knowledge proofs, hides the sender, receiver, and amount, and has cash-like privacy properties. Currently, Zcash blocks about 90% of the transaction volume, and the blocked supply is about 4.2 million ZEC (25% of the circulating supply). According to Grayscale, Zcash's market capitalization is around $8 billion, accounting for only 0.6% of its classified “monetary cryptoassets” sector (with a total market capitalization of $1.4 trillion). If this sector accounts for 5%, the value of ZEC will be 9 times what it is today. The report argues that the market's current valuation of Zcash reflects the assumption that “privacy will remain marginalized,” and that if investors ultimately believe privacy should receive a modest premium, the current valuation may be undervalued. In terms of risk, the report mentions long-term risks such as regulation and quantum computing, but believes that Zcash's shielding technology and selective disclosure tools provide a path for compliance.

1d ago

Grayscale amends Zcash Trust registration documents for the fourth time to be listed and traded on NYSE Arca

Comparing news, Grayscale submitted the fourth amendment to the Grayscale Zcash Trust (ZEC) registration statement to the US SEC to list and trade the trust on the New York Stock Exchange Arca market under the code ZCSH. After listing, participants were authorized to purchase and redeem trust shares on a sustainable basis. Previously, the trust only supported OTCQX (OTCQX) transactions and did not support redemption. As of June 30, 2026, the trust held approximately 2.3% of ZEC's circulating supply and NAV of approximately US$155.2 million. Additionally, a subsidiary of Grayscale's parent company DCG is in discussions to purchase shares of approximately 200,000 ZEC trusts, but no binding agreement has yet been reached.

3d ago

Wall Street Q2 holdings revealed: as institutions fall and buy more, ETH outperforms BTC across the board

Source: ChainCatcher Author: Zhou Original title: Q2 Wall Street Institutional Crypto Positions: Most institutions bucked the trend, and ETH exposure completely outperformed BTC in the second quarter. ETF capital flows and institutional behavior were decoupled, and the institutionalization of crypto assets deepened; at the same time, institutional differences over crypto-related stock targets are also getting bigger. August 14 is the legal deadline for the US SEC to require institutional investors to submit Q2 13F forms. After the centralized disclosure of documents, Wall Street's crypto holdings were once again spread out on the table. There was a clear contrast between institutional movements and currency price trends this season. The price of Bitcoin fell by about 14.2%, while crypto holdings declared by institutions increased. According to Bitcoin Strategy's calculation of 13F data, institutional Bitcoin holdings increased 7.5% from about 498,000 to about 536,000, up 7.5% month-on-month, while total ETF holdings fell from about 1.297,000 to about 1,211,000 during the same period. According to SosoValue data, the US spot Bitcoin ETF continued to make net redemptions in the second quarter, with net outflows of about 2.4 billion and 4.5 billion US dollars in a single month in May and June, respectively. Among them, June set the worst monthly record since listing. The Ethereum ETF also had a cumulative net outflow of around $700 million over the same period. At the same time, the chips are concentrated on the head. The number of institutions declaring Bitcoin holdings dropped from about 2,000 to about 1,900. According to Bloomberg data, as of August 13, the number of institutional holders of an IBIT product reached about 1,500, with a net worth of about US$47.35 billion. The growth rate of Ethereum on the bank side completely outperformed Bitcoin. Previously, ChainCatcher wrote in the first quarter position review: Institutional interest in Ethereum's allocation is increasing, and Jane Street, Wells Fargo, and J.P. Morgan Chase all added Ethereum ETFs during the outflow phase. In the second quarter, this sign was confirmed on the bank side. According to DWF Labs estimates, in terms of the number of corresponding crypto assets, Morgan Stanley's exposure to BTC increased 3.7% month-on-month and ETH exposure increased 18.6% in the second quarter. J.P. Morgan's BTC exposure increased 12.2%, and ETH exposure increased 67.3%. Both banks are growing at a significantly higher rate of ETH than BTC. The individual level is more intuitive. Morgan Stanley's ETHA increased by about 202% to 4.6 million shares, J.P. Morgan's ETHA increased by about 338% to nearly 1.17 million shares, and Bank of America ETHA increased from about 67,500 shares to about 1.98 million shares, about 29 times the previous one. But in fact, there was an overall net outflow of Ethereum spot ETFs in the second quarter. According to SosoValue data, there was still a net inflow of about 356 million US dollars in April, net outflows of about 541 million and 529 million US dollars in May and June respectively, and a total net outflow of about 714 million US dollars in the second quarter. Jane Street bought it back. Hedge funds moved their positions into options. Last season, Jane Street cut IBIT holdings by about 71%. The market once speculated that it was bearish on Bitcoin. This quarter, it reversed IBIT and added back about 24.9 million shares, a sharp increase of about 324% over the previous quarter, making it one of the biggest buyers of the quarter. Its current spot Bitcoin ETF exposure is approximately $9.9 billion, of which approximately $828 million is in IBIT. As an authorized participant and market maker, its end-of-quarter inventory is related to redemptions and hedging, and a large amount on spot is not equal to a directional bet. It is worth noting that 13F only reported a long spot volume at the end of the quarter. If options were added, the image of several institutions would also reverse. Global macro hedge fund Brevan Howard cut spot IBIT from 24.3 million shares to 7.21 million shares in the second quarter, reducing its holdings by about 70.4%. But it also holds a call option corresponding to approximately 7.23 million IBIT shares and a put option of 5.27 million shares. Graham Capital reduced its current IBIT from about 926,000 shares to 259,000 shares, reducing its holdings by about 72%, while holding down options corresponding to about 1.74 million IBIT shares, with a declared value of about $57.94 million. Multi-strategy giant Millennium reduced current IBIT from about 19.29 million shares to 9.69 million shares, reducing holdings by about...

3d ago22#Wall Street #Bitcoin

Half a year has passed, are second-tier US crypto exchanges doing well?

Source: Foresight News Author: Eric Original title: Half a year has passed, how are second-tier crypto exchanges in the US doing? Halfway through 2026, the crypto market didn't experience the rebound that many were looking forward to. Bitcoin fell by more than 30% in the first half of the year. At one point, it fell below $60,000, and the industry's spot trading volume shrank by more than 20% for two consecutive quarters. The much-anticipated CLARITY Act has run aground in the Senate, and expectations of regulatory loosening have also been delayed. Coinbase portrayed this chill with a report card that lost more than $750 million in half a year. As the leading cryptocurrency exchange in the US, this is still the case, and second-tier exchanges are having an even worse time. According to recently disclosed financial reports for the second quarter, although some second-tier exchanges have achieved performance growth, their market share continues to be compressed. Gemini, who relied on blood transfusions from the founder to prolong their lives, let's talk about the worst family. Gemini's total revenue for the second quarter was $45.5 million, up 37% year over year, but exchange revenue fell 38% year over year, leaving only $12.5 million. Spot trading volume shrank 66% from $113 billion in the same period last year to $3.8 billion. Revenue growth was supported by side businesses such as credit cards, collateral, and OTC. Of these, credit card revenue was $16.2 million, up 231% year over year. Gemini had a net loss of US$107.7 million in the second quarter, with a cumulative loss of US$217 million in the first half of the year. The platform's assets fell to $8.4 billion from $182 billion a year ago. What is even more troubling is that the credit card business has taken a leap forward. The identity fraud incident discovered in the first quarter continued to ferment in the second quarter, and a transaction loss reserve of 2010 million US dollars was calculated in a single quarter. The contraction came fast and severe. On February 5, Gemini announced its withdrawal from the UK, EU, and Australian markets, which is tantamount to abandoning the overseas territory it has operated for many years. Employees were cut 40% from the high in the third quarter of 2025, leaving only 402 people at the end of the quarter, and marketing expenses were cut 45% year over year. In May, the Winklevoss brothers paid out of their own pockets to inject $100 million into the company at a price of $14 per share through their fund. The founder's premium increase sounds like a vote of confidence, but the market's signal is that the company is no longer able to finance itself externally. This life-saving money paid in bitcoins was then hit by a drop in currency prices, and an impairment was added to the book, directly dragging the adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter to negative 74 million US dollars, which is worse than the first quarter. Stock prices are the most honest voting instrument. Gemini was listed at $28 in September last year, reaching a high of $45.89 on the first day. Today, it has fallen from a high point of more than 88%, or 56% during the year. Citi cut its target price to $4 in April to maintain its sales rating. Bullish, the situation of Bullish being kidnapped by Bitcoin is a bit more complicated. In addition to the exchange, the company also has CoinDesk media, index licensing, and the Consensus Conference, and has a relatively diverse revenue structure. Bullish's second-quarter adjusted revenue was $92.6 million, up 62% year over year. Among them, subscription and service revenue hit a record of $62.7 million. Morgan Stanley and Grayscale all used the CoinDesk index to distribute products. Adjusted net profit for the second quarter was US$14.3 million, reversing losses year over year. Looking at these numbers alone, Bullish seems like the most decent one in the second tier. But the IFRS-caliber report tells a different story. The net loss for the second quarter was US$280 million, mainly due to Bitcoin held in the company's treasury, which recorded a fair value impairment of US$245 million in the second quarter alone. Digital asset sales fell 44% year over year, indicating that the institutional trading business is also shrinking. CEO Tom Farley's answer was to completely change the track. In May, Bullish announced the acquisition of securities registration and transfer agent Equiniti at the Consensus Miami conference. The transaction scale is about 4.2 billion US dollars. It is expected to be completed in early 2027. The goal is to complete the entire chain of tokenized securities from issuance and listing to trading and tracking. On August 12, the company launched its own tokenized stock exchange, which was also approved by the Gibraltar regulator. The story is a popular one, but the capital market isn't buying it right now. Bullish went public with a $37 IPO in August last year, closing at $70 on the first day...

4d agoForesight News#Exchanges

After disbanding AI Lab and spending 84.6 billion dollars to buy cards in half a year, Tencent is going against the current

Author: Activision BeatingOriginal title: Tencent Still Has Dreams On August 12, 2026, Tencent released its financial report for the second quarter. Capital expenditure for a single quarter, $52.78 billion. Three months ago, that number was 31.9 billion. Moving forward a year, the total for the whole year would be less than 79.2 billion. This company has always been known for spending money with restraint. The speed at which it bought cards was once slow enough to make the market wonder if it actually wanted AI at the table. Now, it has brought the speed of spending money to this level within a year. At the earnings conference on the same day, Ma Huateng said that Tencent is “building a brand new, AI-enabled Tencent.” The hybrid was renamed HY, and Hy4 will be released soon. The last time this company described itself as “brand new” was in the era when WeChat was born. Tencent still has dreams. Its dream is not just AI; it needs to relearn to be an unstable company. In 2018, Pan Ran said in “Tencent Has No Dreams” that Tencent is a company like water. Water is good for all things, and there is no dispute; wherever there is a channel, it flows. Water has no personality, so water doesn't have dreams. It is natural for water to flow to a low place; backflow is for those who have reflux. In 2026, the 28-year-old company did something against nature. It admits that the article from eight years ago was right. It admits that it is no longer possible to live like water. On Wednesday, May 5, at 9 p.m., “Tencent Has No Dreams” was published. 13,000 words. At 2 o'clock in the evening, Liu Chiping and Tencent PR director Zhang Jun responded in the circle of friends. Liu Chiping said that Tencent is a larger organization and ecosystem than the outside world can imagine. “It's too narrow to reduce Tencent to the gains and losses of a product, a kind of strategic deployment, and one person's will.” At 2:19, a screenshot suspected of Ma Huateng's response began circulating in the circle of friends. At 2:39 the real Ma Huateng spoke up, saying “It's nice to have criticism” to a friend who cares about him. Afterwards, he said, “From writing the first line of code, my dream was how to make the best product, not how much money to make.” During the day, the national media quoted almost the full screenshot of Ma Huateng's response. Even Zhang Yiming spoke for Tencent in his circle of friends, saying this was a “Don Quixote imagination.” Tencent is not only powerful, but it is also constantly evolving in every dimension. Zhang Jun was on the long-haul flight that day. After landing, he said, “We certainly weren't as bad as the outside world thought, but the criticism also made us realize that we weren't as good as we thought.” Of course, there were a few different voices about that article at the time. Hong Bo said that many of the questions mentioned in the article are real questions, but is there only one correct answer for such a large company? “Perhaps the author thinks Zhang Yiming is the only correct answer. He is a bit superstitious about Zhang Yiming.” That article also recorded an earlier story. At the beginning of 2011, just after the 3Q war ended, Tencent held a general meeting to discuss what Tencent's ability to open up is. Ma Huateng asked the 16 executives who attended each to write down what they thought Tencent's core competencies were on paper, and came up with a total of 21 answers. Finally, decide on two. Capital, flow. The term capital was advocated by Liu Chiping. Opening up means releasing traffic and turning it into an investment. Traffic is open, capital is open, “I don't do it myself anymore.” These two terms have governed Tencent for ten years. The entrance to WeChat traffic and the exit of investment traffic is in the middle is a steady stream of cash generated by games and advertisements. JD's e-commerce portal entered the WeChat Jiugong grid. Sogou picked up the search, and Meituan took over the local life. Traffic is exchanged for shares, and shares are exchanged for allies. In ten years, Tencent's market capitalization has increased tenfold, surpassing Facebook's. When that article was published, it still looked invincible. If you look back and reread it eight years later, you'll find that the article predicted almost every time Tencent fell since then. Ten years later, on December 23, 2021, Tencent distributed 14.7% of JD shares to its shareholders, with a market value of about HK$100 billion. In January 2022, Sea holdings were reduced and $3.2 billion was cashed out. In November 2022, 9.6% of Meituan was split, or approximately HK$159.4 billion. The capital, which was designated as a “core competency” back then, was personally destroyed by Tencent. The water has flowed back and forth for the first time in decades. There is a section in the first AI Dream article that not many people paid attention back then. It's written in Tencent's AI. The Go program “Amazing Art” created by AI Lab successively lost to two amateur games. One is the personal hobby of Headline's vice president, and the other is an amateur work by several engineers on the WeChat translation team. Few people realize that...

5d ago动察Beating#AI