疫情 · 2714

FT: The economy was under pressure in the Trump era, oil prices rose at the same time as mortgage interest rates, and US debt surpassed $40 trillion

Comparing news, the Financial Times article said that the Trump administration's economic policy is facing multiple pressures: US federal debt has surpassed 40 trillion US dollars, long-term US bond yields have risen to a 19-year high, the Iran war has driven up energy prices, and mortgage interest rates have continued to rise. This week, the US long-term treasury bond market experienced sharp fluctuations. Investors are driving long-term US bond yields higher due to concerns about the expansion of government borrowing and the risk of inflation brought about by the war. US Treasury Secretary Bezent then announced an expansion of the long-term treasury bond repurchase program and plans to introduce measures to reduce the fiscal deficit, but the market response was limited, and the US dollar weakened. According to the data, the size of the US government debt surpassed 40 trillion US dollars for the first time this week, and the growth rate of federal spending reached the fastest level since the pandemic. The US fiscal deficit fell only slightly to 5.8% of GDP in FY2025, and Trump's tax cuts are expected to further increase fiscal pressure in the future. On the energy side, the US-Iran conflict is driving up fuel prices in the US. The price of gasoline rose by about 40% from before the war, to $4.11 per gallon; the price of diesel rose to $5.58 per gallon. Rising energy costs have weakened Trump's previous policy goals of reducing living costs and energy prices. The housing market was also under pressure, and interest rates on 30-year US mortgages rose to 6.65%, up from 5.98% before the war broke out. Meanwhile, consumer inflation in the US rose to a three-year high of 4.2% in May and fell back to 3.4% in July, but Federal Reserve officials are still worried that inflationary pressure continues. Although the US economy is still supported by consumer spending and AI infrastructure investment by big tech companies, the growth rate is below the government's previous target. The annualized growth rate of US GDP in the second quarter of 2026 was about 1.5%, lower than the previously proposed growth forecast of 3% or more. Market participants believe that high debt, high financing costs, and rising energy prices are weakening consumer confidence and may become important political pressures facing the Trump administration. Bessent said that the US is still expected to improve its fiscal situation through economic growth.

18h ago

[Comparative Daily News Picks] OpenAI CFO: The company will go public in 2027 or sooner; Bitcoin's short-term rise hits $70,000; Trump: SEC Chairman is pushing to introduce Hyperliquid into the US; US federal government debt exceeds $40 trillion; Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Multiple officials think interest rate hikes may be needed if necessary

Daily AI · Crypto · Macro · Market News, Bitpush helps you focus ↓ AI · News [OpenAI CFO: The company will go public in 2027 or sooner] In comparison news, OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Flair said that OpenAI plans to become a listed company in 2027, but if the business grows at an accelerated pace, it may go public earlier in the morning. Flair said the IPO was a milestone and method of financing. In March of this year, the company closed $122 billion in financing, providing greater flexibility for future growth. [Nvidia plans to invest in AI data labeling company Mercor, financing valuation may reach 20 billion US dollars] According to The Information, according to a person familiar with the matter, Nvidia has already discussed investment matters with data labeling service provider Mercor. Mercor helped the chip designer develop an open source AI model. The investment will be part of Mercor's round of financing valued at $20 billion. Existing investors, General Catalyst, have been negotiating to lead this funding round. Mercor's past revenue came from closed-source AI model developers such as OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. However, Mercor's revenue from Nvidia is growing as Nvidia prioritizes the development of Nemotron's open source model. Nemotron aims to compete with the world's most advanced open source models. According to people familiar with the matter, Nvidia paid Mercor tens of millions of dollars last quarter. In addition to Mercor, Nvidia also uses data from other data vendors such as Turing and Scale, and also has its own in-house data team. [US CFTC Seeks Public Opinions on AI Hashrate Futures] In comparison, as industry giants begin to accept computing power (compute) as a tradable asset, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is seeking public comments on hashrate futures contracts. A number of exchanges, including CME (CME), Intercontinental Exchange, and the emerging fintech company Architect Financial Technologies, have announced plans to launch relevant contracts after receiving regulatory approval. According to these exchanges, the establishment of a futures market with computational power will help end users and speculators hedge against energy shortages or other issues that may affect the technological progress of AI developers. In the crypto market [Bitcoin's short-term rise hit $70,000], according to market data, Bitcoin's short-term rally hit $70,000, but now it has fallen back to $69,800, and the 24-hour increase has increased to 8.08%. [Trump: SEC Chairman is promoting the introduction of Hyperliquid into the US] In comparison, HyperliquidNews posted an article on the X platform saying, “The SEC Chairman is promoting the introduction of Hyperliquid into the US.” [Coinbase CEO: Looking forward to the CLARITY Act being passed on September 15, followed by a new bull market] In comparison, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently released a vision board on the X platform saying that he expects the CLARITY bill to receive strong bipartisan voting support on September 15, then usher in Upmonth and start the next round of the cryptocurrency bull market, and stated “as predicted.” The CLARITY Act aims to provide a clearer market structure and regulatory framework for US crypto assets. Armstrong's statement reflects its expectations for regulatory progress and a recovery in market sentiment. Macro · Agency [US federal government debt exceeds 40 trillion US dollars] compared news that as US government borrowing has increased at an unprecedented rate in history, the total amount of US treasury bonds has exceeded 40 trillion US dollars. Despite Trump's promises to control government spending, rising debt has raised investors' concerns about the state of America's public finances. According to data released by the US Treasury Department on Wednesday, the total US federal debt broke through the $40 trillion threshold on Tuesday. Over the past year, its debt has increased by $3 trillion, which is the fastest growth rate in history if the pandemic period is not taken into account. “It's like that huge warning light on a car engine,” Responsible Federation...

3d agoBitpushNews#Compare Daily Picks

US federal government debt surpasses $40 trillion

Comparatively, as US government borrowing has increased at an unprecedented rate in history, the total amount of US treasury bonds has exceeded 40 trillion US dollars. Despite Trump's promises to control government spending, rising debt has raised investors' concerns about the state of America's public finances. According to data released by the US Treasury Department on Wednesday, the total US federal debt broke through the $40 trillion threshold on Tuesday. Over the past year, its debt has increased by $3 trillion, which is the fastest growth rate in history if the pandemic period is not taken into account. “It's like that huge warning light on a car engine,” said Mark Godwin, senior policy director at the Responsible Federal Budget Committee. “This doesn't mean the engine will burn out tomorrow, but it's a clear sign that the situation is out of control. The problem is not only the sheer size of the debt, but also the speed with which we have reached this level.” Over the past two decades, America's national debt has risen sharply, from less than $6 trillion at the beginning of the century to current levels. Huge public spending during the financial crisis and COVID-19 has exacerbated the widening budget deficit. Overall debt has doubled in the past decade alone. The US Congressional Budget Office predicts that the ratio of federal debt held by the public to GDP will surpass the historic peak of 106% set in 1946 after World War II around 2030, and rise further to 120% in 2036.

3d ago

US debt risk surges, shifting to short-term treasury bonds to meet growing demand for borrowing

Comparatively, the US Treasury's dependence on short-term debt is rising: US Treasury notes currently account for 21% of the tradable treasury securities market, which is close to the highest level since 2020. At that time, the US federal government's borrowing volume surged during the response to the pandemic. This figure is well above the 10-15% range observed between 2012 and 2019. In comparison, during the 2008 financial crisis, this figure reached around 34%. Meanwhile, the US government is increasingly reliant on short-term treasury bonds to meet its growing borrowing needs rather than long-term bonds. If the US Treasury continues to issue long-term debt at the current rate until fiscal year 2027, treasury bonds will account for 25% of total debt, the highest since 2004. However, this approach increases the risk that the government faces short-term interest rate fluctuations. If interest rates continue to rise or rise again, then debt repayment costs will become more unbearable. America's debt crisis is in full swing.

6d ago

Stripe's negotiations with Advent to buy PayPal are heating up, and the deal may be valued at $53 billion

According to the news, takeover negotiations between payment giant PayPal and Stripe and private equity firm Advent Global Opportunities are heating up, and the two sides may reach a deal within the next few weeks. Earlier in July, Stripe and Advent proposed to buy PayPal for $60.50 per share, with a total valuation of about $53 billion, but PayPal did not accept the offer at the time. However, people familiar with the matter revealed that negotiations between the two sides have not been interrupted and are still progressing. Neither PayPal nor Stripe confirmed the news. PayPal declined to comment, and Stripe said it would not respond to market rumors or speculation. The potential sale comes at a time when PayPal is seeking to reverse growth difficulties. After taking office in March of this year, PayPal CEO Enrique Lores launched a restructuring plan to split the business into three major directions: payment and checkout and PayPal business, consumer financial services (including Venmo), payment services, and crypto business. Lores previously said that PayPal will return to its position as a technology company and strengthen its core payment capabilities. At the same time, the company plans to improve efficiency by cutting costs, and the scale of layoffs is expected to reach 20% within the next two to three years. PayPal was founded in 1998, and the founding team included prominent Silicon Valley figures such as Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, and Max Levchin. The company grew rapidly due to the e-commerce boom during the pandemic, but in recent years it has faced challenges such as slowing growth and pressure on stock prices. If the deal is completed, it will be one of the largest acquisitions in the fintech industry in recent years.

7d ago

70 years since the dollar left: stablecoins, not a new invention?

Author: Lacie Zhang, Bitget Wallet Researcher Some people say that the real global reserve currency has never been the US dollar, but the European dollar. The name originated from a bank's telex address, but was eventually used to refer to all dollars outside the US. 70 years ago, in order to avoid the freezing of dollar accounts in the US, the Soviet Union and Eastern European countries deposited dollars in the Nordic Commercial Bank established in Paris and the Moscow National Bank established in London. The Nordic Commerzbank's telex address is “Eurobank” — the name of the European dollar, from there. However, it was Britain that turned these dollars into a large-scale credit market. After the Suez Canal crisis in 1956, Britain tightened foreign exchange controls, and bankers in London switched to using these foreign dollar deposits to lend, and European dollar credit services were born as a result. By 1957, the Bank of England further liberalized its policies, and London became the center of the European dollar market. Surprisingly, however, the explosion on the scale of the European dollar was mainly driven by the US itself: interest rates on domestic deposits were too low, and foreign dollars had no liquidity; during the oil crisis in the 70s, most of the dollar profits of oil-producing countries did not return. They are locally deposited in London or other offshore banks. The European dollar market has thus been pushed from a few million dollars to the trillions of dollars. From this moment on, the “Eurodollar” no longer belongs only to Europe. The story of the European dollar also unfolds along two main lines at the same time: on one line, institutions that carry dollar credit are constantly changing, from bank accounts, to fintech companies' databases, to stablecoin issuers' reserve statements; on the other, the relationship between users and accounts is also quietly changing: from completely handing over money to institutions to being able to control assets on their own today. However, there are three things that run through the two main lines and have not changed in 70 years: the US dollar can continue to expand outside of the US; its final liquidation will always be inseparable from the US; and the person who manages your account is never necessarily the same as the one who actually promises to pay. In other words, the “who owes you a dollar” question itself never went away, but the answer to it changed all the time. The story I want to tell in this article is how this problem entwined two migrations all the way up until today. 1. At the moment the US dollar left the US deposit and transferred to London, something that was easily overlooked happened: the Bank of New York originally owed this amount of money, but now, the person who owes this money has become the Bank of London. The unit of currency has not changed, but the person who guaranteed it has changed. If that were all, the story would have ended here, but the Bank of London soon discovered something even more interesting: not only can they accept US dollar deposits, but they can also create more dollars out of thin air around these deposits. When a bank lends a dollar loan to a company, the asset side has an additional claim against the borrower, but the debt side also has an additional “dollar deposit” — this deposit can be immediately used to pay the supplier's bills, buy equipment, and pay off other debts. Milton Friedman (Milton Friedman), a representative figure of monetarism, later commented on this incident and said it very well: the source of the European dollar was not a money printer, but “a bookkeeper's pen.” Banks don't create wealth out of thin air; they're just using an old credit game rule. As long as payment promises are accepted by the market, dollars written on the ledger can be used as real dollars. This pen proved one thing for the first time: it doesn't have to be a bank in the US to carry the dollar. What is really growing this market is a regulatory wall. The US “Q Regulations” stipulate the upper limit of interest rates that banks can pay to depositors. Without this wall, the Bank of London can naturally offer higher interest to steal business. Economic historian Catherine Schenk (Catherine Schenk) examined British archives and found that in June 1955, London's Midland Bank absorbed about $49 million in 30-day dollar deposits in just one month because interest rates were a bit higher than what her American peers could give. After the British pound crisis in 1957, Britain did not allow domestic banks to use British pounds for trade financing in third countries. The Bank of London simply switched completely to the US dollar business. Businesses and governments that wanted to finance began to bypass New York and directly ask for money from London. The world's appetite for the US dollar is growing, yet America's own banks are tied to their feet — this gap feeds an entire dollar market that can self-circulate and expand outside of the US. Around 1960, this market was about 1 billion US dollars; ten years later, it was close to 50 billion US dollars; in the 1973 oil crisis, huge dollars earned by oil-producing countries went back through the London banking system; by 2007...

8d agoburnking#Figure

From crypto to AI: Why are believers turning collectively?

Source: Wall Street Journal Author: Vicky Ge Huang Compiled by Chopper Original title: Why are cryptocurrency believers “throwing coins into AI”? Summary: Individual investors are withdrawing from the cryptocurrency market and switching to AI stocks. Daniel Koss, a 30-year-old investor, cleared Bitcoin and invested all of them on the AI circuit; Ryan Ho, the founder of the social networking platform, also replaced his seven-digit Bitcoin holdings with chip stocks, believing that the structure of the crypto market is weakening and the AI application scenarios are more realistic. Another trader, Minh Le, cashed out some of his crypto assets to buy Ferraris and anime collectibles. Although he recently re-entered the market, his strategy is conservative. Bitcoin fell from a high of $126,000 to around $60,000, decoupling from the trend of US stocks, while AI stock derivatives launched on platforms such as Hyperliquid also boosted capital migration. Bloomberg analysts say the crypto market is undergoing a deep clean-up, and investors believe that the era of Bitcoin's high-multiple growth is over. Daniel Koss has bought Bitcoin in a big way, and he is convinced that cryptocurrency will reshape the financial industry. But after the advent of the AI boom, he changed his investment direction. The 30-year-old investor believes that rapidly developing artificial intelligence technology has the potential to disrupt many industries, so he entered the market decisively. In August of last year, he cleared his six-digit Bitcoin holdings, and now all of his money is invested in the artificial intelligence circuit. “It felt like primitive humans discovered Tinder.” Koss, who is in Zug, Switzerland, said. Koss's position adjustment choice reflects the major capital migration that has taken the entire market by storm over the past year: individual investors and hedge funds have successively sold Bitcoin and various tokens to chase AI stocks. This asset rotation also explains Bitcoin's price dilemma: since it hit an all-time high of over $126,000 in October last year, Bitcoin has continued to be under pressure and has been hovering around $60,000 for a long time. At the time, the Trump administration threatened to impose new tariffs on China, triggering investors to sell high-risk assets. At the same time, chip makers and other AI concept stocks have broken out of the boom that only existed in the crypto market in the past. Bloomberg Industry Research Advanced Commodity Strategy Mike McGlone said, “The crypto market is undergoing a round of deep clean-up, and this is just the beginning.” The US stock market continued to hit new highs this year, yet Bitcoin continued to weaken. Koss has no plans to re-trade Bitcoin anytime soon. In his view, crypto assets have matured, and the era of exponential skyrocketing surges is over. He believes that Bitcoin will never increase tenfold in a year. “Bitcoin is already so large that even doubling it would be extremely profitable.” Even staunch crypto believers are reducing their crypto holdings and turning to volatile AI stocks. Ryan Ho, founder of the social trading platform Legend, revealed that when the price of Bitcoin was close to $120,000, he held a seven-digit Bitcoin position. At the time, he was convinced that Bitcoin “will never fall below $100,000 again.” However, the market backfired. In December of last year, he swapped a large number of bitcoins and altcoin holdings to buy AI-related stocks such as chip companies, including Intel. Currently, he still holds hundreds of thousands of dollars in Bitcoin. Ryan Ho, a 25-year-old entrepreneur, said that the core reason for the reduction in crypto assets was the structural weakening of the crypto market. In his view, after the sharp decline in October, the crypto market no longer has the characteristics of a health-risk asset: demand for buying has dried up, and institutional capital continues to flow to the AI sector. The crypto market then decoupled from the trend of US stocks. US stocks continued to rise, and the crypto market stagnated. Ryan Ho believes that ordinary investors are more likely to be optimistic about the growth prospects of AI. Artificial intelligence has a large number of real implementation scenarios such as ChatGPT and AI-assisted programming. Another driving force behind the shift of capital from crypto to AI is the launch of AI stock derivatives on mainstream crypto trading platforms such as Hyperliquid. “A large number of crypto traders have started trading AI stocks in the past few months, and the core reason is that related trading channels have been opened up.” Ryan Ho said. There are also some crypto traders who chose to settle the bag and end the previous round of sharp increases in Bitcoin and mainstream tokens. Trader and digital artist Minh Le recently monetized some of his crypto assets to buy a Ferrari, while also allocating a large amount of profit to a Japanese anime collection, including “One Piece” and Pokémon collectible cards. Minh LeMinh Le relies on...

8d ago22#AI #Bitcoin

KITU Macro: South Korea's semiconductor boom may cool down within two years

Comparative news, according to Kim Sook's report, economist Marcel Thieliant of KaiTou Macro said that although South Korea's GDP growth faces upward risks in the short term, the semiconductor-driven economic boom in South Korea may lose momentum within the next two years. The economist predicts that the US AI investment boom will cool down in 2028, which may prompt South Korean chipmakers to start cutting capital spending as the semiconductor industry is highly cyclical. Thieliant pointed out that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix announced an investment plan totaling 800 trillion won to build a new chip manufacturing plant in southwestern Korea, but the specific investment schedule has not yet been announced. He pointed out that in 2023, SK Hynix cut capital expenditure by two-thirds as the post-pandemic electronics boom reversed.

9d ago

Who are the Chinese buyers who have invested $100 million in Trump's cryptocurrency?

On July 19, at the World Cup final in East Rutherford, New Jersey, Zhou Guren (top left) appeared in a private room with Zach Witkoff on the right. Vincent Alban for The New York Times saw the World Cup finals in New Jersey last month, Zack Witkoff, the co-founder of President Trump's cryptocurrency company, in a luxurious private room. Also watching the game was a man who brought huge wealth to the president and all of the company's co-founders. Two years ago, this man named Zhou Guren (English name Bobby) was also a failed hardwood flooring retailer in the UK and was investigated there on suspicion of money laundering; he headed a small cryptocurrency startup that eventually directed the broadcast. He then seemed to come out of thin air and became one of the biggest buyers of Trump's “World Free Finance” tokens, investing a total of $100 million through a new company called Aqua 1. For several months, he kept a low profile, speaking only briefly as Aqua 1's “Mr. Bobby” during an audio broadcast on the X platform where almost no one followed. “We are very proud to be a major player in 'world liberty', the Trump family's crypto enterprise,” he said. As much as $75 million of this funding was distributed to a company controlled by the president and his three sons, according to World Free Finance regulations. The money also benefited Steve Vitkov's family, the Trump administration's peace envoy and Zach Vitkov's father. In any era in the past, there was no public evidence that a foreigner with such financial resources offered such a huge amount of money to the US president would necessarily be considered contrary to political practice, and could even lead to congressional investigation. However, Zhou Guren's confusing case just revealed how easy it is for buyers with unknown origins and unclear motives to use the anonymity of cryptocurrencies to send large amounts of money to Trump. According to the president's recent financial disclosure report, he received $1.4 billion in revenue from his cryptocurrency business last year, mostly from anonymous sources. At present, it is unclear how deep the World Free Finance Corporation has investigated Zhou Guren's background, but the UK money laundering investigation is publicly searchable information, and part of Zhou Guren's troubled business history can also be found publicly. A court record filed in November last year accuses Zhou Guren of participating in money laundering activities with five other people starting in 2019. However, he has yet to be prosecuted. British officials said at the end of last month that the investigation was still ongoing. His deal with World Free Finance raised a series of questions: How did he obtain such huge sums of money? Does World Free Finance actually comply with anti-money laundering laws? Under relevant laws, in some cases, businesses must record the origin of customer funds before accepting them. Patrick Prinz, chief operating officer of Recoveris, headquartered in Switzerland, which specializes in investigating digital asset crimes, said that the multiple red flags described to him by the “New York Times” — Zhou Guren's experience of business failure, sudden acquisition of huge wealth, large transactions, and the fact that he is being investigated — should have triggered these record requirements. World Free Finance Corporation spokesman David Waxman said in a statement that the company has complied with all applicable laws and regulations. “World Free Finance has established a compliance system that meets or exceeds industry standards,” he said. Zhou Guren set up a company and paid $100 million to President Trump's main cryptocurrency business, “World Free Finance.” Gabby Jones/Bloomberg Waxman declined to say whether the company was aware of the source of the coin purchase funds. He said that the company did not agree with the “New York Times”'s “description of Mr. Zhou,” but did not specify. White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Trump had no conflicts of interest and “acted only in the best interest of the American public.” Neither Zhou Guren himself nor his company responded to the New York Times's multiple contacts. Reuters was the first to reveal his identity as the person behind Aqua 1 at the helm. To this day, the true origin of the funds Zhou Guren paid to World Free Finance is still a mystery. But through dozens of interviews with former colleagues, reviews of classified documents, and analysis of court records and other public information, the New York Times's in-depth investigation of Zhou Guren's career revealed a bizarre trajectory. Just after his crypto company burned $7.6 million and he left London to move to the UAE in the summer of 2024, the fortune of this man who once seemed to be borrowing money from others took a dramatic turn...

11d agoWendy#Trump #World free finance #Trump

The stock market boom boosts early retirement, and America's seniors are leaving the labor market faster

Comparing news, more and more elderly Americans are leaving the labor market at an accelerated pace. The labor participation rate of people aged 55 and over has dropped from over 40% before the pandemic to 36.9% in July this year. Bank of America economists point out that increasing wealth is one of the key factors driving this trend. Over the past two years, the S&P 500 has risen nearly 40%, and growing 401 (k) retirement account balances may give more Americans the ability to retire early.

11d ago