陈凯丰 · 31

[Weekly review] Ethereum has repeatedly reached new highs, Bitcoin has returned to 40,000, and DeFi coins have ushered in spring; CEOs of tech giants such as Musk and Jack Dorsey are optimistic about the crypto industry; good news comes out of the MicroStrategy summit

Every Sunday, the big and small things you need to know about the past week's blockchain news. At the beginning of this week, we were still affected by the aftermath of last week's WSB retail war against Wall Street bears. The agencies and officials involved were questioned by all parties, and the US regulators and government all took action. In terms of market conditions, the overall crypto market has risen, Ethereum has repeatedly reached new highs, and Bitcoin has once again broken through the 40,000 US dollar mark today. The Defi coin situation is very good. Additionally, MicroStrategy hosted an online World.now summit this week, inviting executives from various major companies. Many of the participants looked forward to the future of the crypto industry. [This week's market: Ethereum has repeatedly reached new highs, Bitcoin has returned to 40,000, and DeFi coins ushered in spring] The crypto market rebounded slightly on Monday. Bitcoin and Ethereum showed mediocre performance, Dogecoin's popularity declined, falling by nearly 10%. XRP rapidly rose by more than 140%, then ushered in a waterfall of more than 15%. The crypto market collectively rallied on Tuesday. Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency with the highest market capitalization, surpassed $35,000, and Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, rose 12%, breaking through $1,500 in one fell swoop to a new all-time high. DeFi coin UMA rose more than 20%. The crypto market generally rose on Wednesday. Ethereum once again reached a new all-time high, reaching $1,600, driving the overall rise of DeFi tokens. Among them, UMA led the rise by nearly 60%. Bitcoin, the number one cryptocurrency by market capitalization, rebounded to the $37,000 mark. The Aave price increased 76%. It hit a record high of $520. The overall crypto market rose on Thursday. DeFi tokens performed well. UMA was stimulated by the favorable news of the agreement upgrade. The increase was over 50%, and both 0x and Aave increased by nearly 40%. The market value of the platform coin BNB rose to 9th place, and Bitcoin and Ethereum stagnated. The crypto market continued to rise on Friday. Ethereum surpassed 1,700 US dollars, a daily increase of more than 6%, and reached another record high. Defi coins continued to rise, with 0x rising more than 50%, and Cosmos and Road Print all rising by more than 30%. The crypto market continued to rise on Saturday. Bitcoin rose more than 6%, breaking the $40,000 mark, and Ethereum hovering above $1,700. According to reports, the Bitcoin futures market's trading volume in January was 2.9 trillion US dollars, a record high. Among them, Binance has the largest trading volume, accounting for 30%, followed by Huobi (23.8%) and OKEx (16.9%). [Institutional Companies: MicroStrategy Buys 295 Bitcoins Again, Glenn Hutchins Launches New Crypto Venture Capital Fund] Institutional companies are still optimistic about cryptocurrencies this week, either adding crypto assets, or launching new crypto funds, or piloting new technologies. On Tuesday, MicroStrategy once again purchased approximately 295 bitcoins for $10 million in cash, with an average purchase price of around $33,808 each. Glenn Hutchins, co-founder of private equity firm Silver Lake Partners, and his son James Hutchins and partner Travis Scher launched a new $72 million crypto venture capital fund on Thursday. Meanwhile, payment giant Visa announced on Wednesday that it is piloting a set of cryptographic application programming interfaces (APIs) that will allow customers to “easily connect to the infrastructure provided by Visa's partner, Anchorage,” to provide Bitcoin services. [Project financing: Opyn announced the completion of Series A financing of 6.7 million US dollars; 0x Protocol Series A financing received support from IOSG Ventures] Some outstanding DeFi projects also received financing this week. On Wednesday, the DeFi options platform Opyn announced the completion of Series A financing of 6.7 million US dollars, led by the famous venture capital Paradigm. Decentralized exchange protocol 0x Protocol announced on Friday that Series A funding was supported by IOSG Ventures. IOSG Ventures said they believe 0x Labs will inject momentum into the DeFi sector. [Exchange banks: Crypto exchange Coinbase will be directly listed on NASDAQ; Bitfinex announced that it has paid off Tether's $750 million loan] The overall news from crypto exchanges and digital banks this week is positive. Crypto exchange Coinbase said on Monday that it would choose to list directly on NASDAQ. On January 25, the Nasdaq private equity market's secondary market for Coinbase shares allowed shareholders with vested interests to sell shares. Rob...

2022d agoSaraZhang#Weekly review of the comparison

[Comparative to Zaobao] Ethereum's strong rise broke through an all-time high of $1,500; MicroStrategy once again bought Bitcoin with $10 million in cash; Forbes Crypto Rich List: 11 people with assets exceeding $1 billion

Every morning, blockchain news you need to know: [Ethereum's strong rise broke through $1,500 to a new all-time high] According to comparative data, Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, rose 12% on Tuesday, breaking through $1,500 to a new all-time high. This is another record high for Ethereum after January 19. Currently, the cryptocurrency's market capitalization has reached 172.2 billion US dollars. Since entering 2021, Ethereum has achieved a 100% increase, thanks to the booming development of the decentralized finance sector. According to DeFi Pulse, more than $28 billion of value has now been locked in Ethereum-based DeFi protocols, which is also a record high. [MicroStrategy buys Bitcoin again with $10 million in cash] According to the official announcement, MicroStrategy has purchased approximately 295 bitcoins with $10 million in cash, with an average purchase price of about $33,808 each. As of February 2, 2021, Beijing time, the company had purchased a total of 71,079 bitcoins at a price of US$1,145 billion, with an average holding cost of approximately US$16,109 each. [Forbes Crypto Richest List: 11 people have assets exceeding 1 billion US dollars] The commercial media Forbes updated its list of the crypto industry's richest people on Tuesday. A total of 11 people have assets of more than 1 billion US dollars. Forbes said that in the past year, the stock market gave investors plenty of reasons to laugh, but no one smiled more brightly than cryptocurrency holders. Currently, the total value of all digital coins is over 1 trillion US dollars, a fourfold increase from 250 billion US dollars in January 2020. After calculating the digital currency held by these crypto industry insiders and their shares in related companies and traditional assets, Forbes found that 11 people had assets of more than $1 billion. [Crypto market hits, Ethereum breaks $1,500] Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market has collectively risen. Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency with the highest market capitalization, surpassed $35,000, and Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, broke through $1,500, reaching a record high. The current total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market is $1,077,997,137,874, and the 24-hour trading volume is $223,126,809,707. Bitcoin accounts for 61.37% of the market. In the past 24 hours, 16 of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have risen, and 71 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have risen. The top 3 gainers were UMA (22.95%), Solana (19.68%), and Siacoin (17.54%). The top 3 declines were Dogecoin (-18.00%), Onix (-13.84%), and XRP (-11.30%). [Indian Government clarifies position on cryptocurrency and digital rupee] The upper house of the Indian parliament published a list of questions and written responses on Tuesday, in which it clarified its position on cryptocurrencies and the digital ruble. According to public documents, Indian MP Sri Sanjay Raut asked Finance Minister Anurag Singh Thakur if the Indian government was aware that many commercial companies were using cryptocurrencies to conduct international transactions in the past year? Is the government considering the possibility of introducing India's own cryptocurrency? Thakur answered the first question with “no.” To a question about the digital rupee, he said, “No. In the 2018-19 budget speech, the government did not consider cryptocurrencies legal tender and will do everything possible to use these crypto assets to finance illegal activities or become part of the payment system. The government will actively explore the use of blockchain technology to usher in the development of the digital economy.” [Chen Kaifeng: US GDP is expected to reach 6% this year, and the government will control Bitcoin] Chen Kaifeng, chief economist at Huisheng Finance, a professor at New York University, and CEO of Edoc Acquisition Corp, recently listed on NASDAQ, said in an exclusive interview with “Comparative” that the US economy will recover rapidly in the second half of the year. Regarding the US economy under the pandemic, Chen Kaifeng believes that it is very likely that the 1.9 trillion economic stimulus plan announced by Biden will pass. Although the number of unemployed people in the US is still high, it is mainly due to the slump in the service sector. The current state of manufacturing and the overall economy in the US is actually very good. Driven by stimulus policies, the second half of the year should be overheated. With the COVID-19 pandemic subsided and vaccines spread, the US GDP could achieve a 6% growth rate this year, taking into account currency...

2026d agoamyliu19#Comparing Zaobao

Chen Kaifeng: US GDP growth is expected to reach 6% this year, and the government will control Bitcoin

Chen Kaifeng, chief economist at Huisheng Finance and professor at New York University, and CEO of Edoc Acquisition Corp, recently listed on NASDAQ, said in an exclusive interview with “Comparative” that the US economy will recover rapidly in the second half of the year. Regarding the US economy under the pandemic, Chen Kaifeng believes that it is very likely that the 1.9 trillion economic stimulus plan announced by Biden will pass. Although the number of unemployed people in the US is still high, it is mainly due to the slump in the service sector. The current state of manufacturing and the overall economy in the US is actually very good. Driven by stimulus policies, the second half of the year should be overheated. With the COVID-19 pandemic subsides and the spread of vaccines, the US GDP can achieve a 6% growth rate this year, while the nominal GDP growth rate after considering inflation is likely to reach 8% or more. Chen Kaifeng is also optimistic about the US stock market, which represents the trend of the US economy. He believes that although there may be a correction in the future, there is no problem in the overall direction. This year in particular, many high-quality new companies will enter the US stock market. However, large-scale economic stimulus policies are bound to trigger inflation. Chen Kaifeng believes that, to a certain extent, this is an update of the US economy. Under the new economic situation, retired elderly people will face great pressure, and rent and medical outpatient expenses will become more and more expensive. Although interest rates will rise in the future, it will have little impact on young people. The COVID-19 pandemic will cause the two major countries of China and the US to move on the opposite side of globalization and develop into endogenous economies. Chen Kaifeng told “Comparative” that the share of foreign trade in the two countries' economies will continue to decline, and enterprises will also pay more attention to the development of the local market. From a global perspective, countries will be less and less likely to divide their labor with each other, and each country will focus more on itself in the future. Chen Kaifeng believes that the Biden administration is not fundamentally different from the previous Trump administration in terms of relations with China; however, the new administration is more systematic in formulating policies, and priorities in different fields may differ. China and the US will not completely decouple; they will continue to maintain a state where cooperation and competition coexist. Many listed companies and Wall Street funds are aggressively buying Bitcoin as a “stored value asset” due to concerns about inflation and fiat currency depreciation caused by economic stimulus policies. Chen Kaifeng believes that it is OK to invest some assets in Bitcoin to hedge, but the government may control this field. He said that the recent decline in the price of Bitcoin was influenced by the newly appointed US Treasury Secretary Yellen. According to the “Comparative” report, Yellen has previously stated that Bitcoin is a tool for “money laundering.” Image source: Pixabay Author's Twitter This article is from BitPush.News. The source must be indicated for reprinting...

2026d agoLiang#Bitcoin #custodial #financially #USA #Chen Kaifeng

US Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Clarida shared online at the 2020 Annual Member Meeting of the Institute of International Finance in Washington, D.C. I'm excited to meet you today at the IFC 2020 Annual Member Conference. I'm sorry we didn't attend this meeting in person, and I hope the next time Tim Adams invites me back, we'll meet up in Washington. As always, I look forward to the conversation with Tim, but first, allow me to comment on the economic outlook, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and our new monetary policy framework. Current Economic Situation and Outlook In the first half of this year, the COVID-19 (COVID-19) pandemic and mitigation measures were taken to contain the pandemic, the worst blow to the US economy since the Great Depression. The gross domestic product (GDP) declined at a rate of nearly 32% per year in the second quarter, and more than 22 million jobs were lost in March and April. This economic recession is the deepest in post-war history, but it may also be the shortest temporary recession in US history and has entered the record book. Macro data traffic received since May has been surprisingly strong, and many forecasters estimate that GDP growth in the third quarter could rebound at a rate of 25% to 30% per year. This progress is particularly noteworthy as it mitigates the surge in new COVID-19 cases reported in several US states this summer and the many high-frequency activity metrics we track and track traffic activity while slowing down. The impact of the virus on economic activity. Although spending on many services continues to lag, the rebound in GDP data is broad based on indicators such as commodity consumption, housing, and investment. These components of aggregate demand benefit from strong fiscal support (including “wage protection programs” and expanded unemployment benefits) as well as low interest rates and the Federal Reserve's efforts to maintain credit flows to households and businesses. In the labor market, about half of the 22 million jobs lost in the spring have been restored, and the unemployment rate has fallen by nearly 7 percentage points since April to 7.9% in September. I remind you that in the spring, many people questioned the role of good interest rate cuts, forward guidance, asset purchases, and loan programs in an economy where people are afraid to risk buying cars or building homes, and companies don't invest to increase their capital stock. Well, the data shows that with low interest rates, available credit, and income supported by fiscal transfers, the answer is at least so far — it really is that they build houses, buy cars, and order equipment and software. In other words, the COVID-19 recession has plunged the economy into a very deep hole, and it will take some time for the level of GDP to fully return to its peak before 2019. It may take even longer for the unemployment rate to return to a level consistent with our maximum employment requirements. It is worth emphasizing, however, that compared to the recovery from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the baseline forecast outlined by the Commission in its latest Economic Projections Summary anticipates that employment and inflation rates will remain at levels consistent with mandates. 2 In particular, median Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants predict that by the end of 2023 (just over three years from now), the unemployment rate will drop to 4% and PCE (personal consumption expenditure) inflation will return to 2%. After the global financial crisis, it took more than eight years for employment and inflation to return to similar mandate levels. My benchmark outlook is close to these predictions, but I must also acknowledge that the economic outlook is extremely uncertain. Furthermore, the final direction the economy will follow will depend on the direction of the virus, and social isolation regulations and mitigation measures are put in place to accommodate it. The FOMC September Decision and the New Monetary Policy Framework At our September FOMC meeting, the Commission made significant changes to our policy statement, thereby upgrading our forward-looking guidance on the future path of the federal funds rate and providing unprecedented information for our policy response function. We said that as the inflation rate continues to fall below 2%, our policy will aim to achieve inflationary results, keeping inflation expectations well anchored to our long-term target of 2%. We said that we want to maintain a loose monetary policy stance until we achieve these results and our maximum employment requirements, and we want to maintain the current target range of 0% to 1/4 per cent to assess the maximum employment rate until labour market conditions reach a level consistent with the Commission, until the inflation rate rises to 2%, and until the inflation trajectory moderately exceeds 2% for a period of time. We also said that in the next few months, the Federal Reserve will...

2132d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰#monetary policy #Chen Kaifeng

The Fuzzy Future of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy: Shadow Money Open Market Committee Discussion and Analysis

In the golden autumn of October, the fall meeting of the Federal Reserve's Shadow Monetary Policy Committee was held. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, this conference was held online. The author shares one of the conference topics that Mitch Levy and Charles Prosser co-authored and discussed: the fuzzy future of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Dr. Prowse is the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. He is currently a senior fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution. The Federal Reserve's first “Long-term Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy Statement” issued in January 2012 improved transparency and accountability by clarifying the interpretation of legislative mandates established by Congress. The Federal Reserve officially established its longer-term inflation target of 2%, that is, the target of symmetry and maximum employment, although the Federal Reserve emphasized that it is inappropriate to set quantitative employment targets because maximum employment is not directly observed and is affected by many non-monetary factors. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in 50 years, and the average inflation rate was just below 2%, while inflation expectations were still quite close to 2%. The Federal Reserve is concerned that continued inflation below 2% may cause a sharp drop in inflation expectations, and faces a lower limit of zero interest rates, reducing its flexibility to raise expectations and stimulate the economy, causing the Federal Reserve to formulate a revised strategy. The Federal Reserve's new strategic framework introduces a flexible average inflation target (FAIT) process. After an inflation period of less than 2%, the employment task has been expanded to “maximum inclusive employment” by incorporating “additional strategies” and “composition strategies”. The Federal Reserve gave an asymmetric explanation for both tasks: after inflation exceeded 2%, the Fed did not consider an additional strategy of inflation below 2%; it emphasized that it would evaluate the “gap” of maximum inclusive employment rather than the “bias.” Their keynote address described five concerns about the Federal Reserve's new strategic framework. First, the new policy adds too much complexity. Second, its lack of clarity and inadequate definition of its goals will lead to a shift from a more predictable and systematic approach to a highly discretionary policy environment. This is particularly true of its inflation-structuring strategy, which lacks any numerical guidelines. Financial markets and the public can only speculate on the Federal Reserve's medium-term inflation target. Third, maximizing inclusive employment is a commendable and desirable feature of an effective labor market, but it is determined by a range of factors that go beyond the scope of monetary policy, and using it as an authorization may mislead Congress and the public, allow the Federal Reserve to achieve its goals, and expose the Federal Reserve to the risk of politicization and possibly independence. Fourth, the Federal Reserve's new strategy relies heavily on the Fed's trustworthiness to manage inflation expectations, but it only assumes that the Fed can manage inflation expectations in a credible manner. This is ironic because the Federal Reserve never explained why its zero interest rate and large-scale quantitative easing policy after the financial crisis failed to generate 2% inflation, and its revised strategy seems to be questioning its own credibility. Fifth, although the Federal Reserve wisely abandoned the Phillips curve, which is analytically flawed, and there have been no reliable inflation forecasters since the 1960s, the Fed has not provided any new framework for forecasting inflation. As a result, the Federal Reserve's new framework broadens the explanation of inflation and employment tasks, but does not develop a credible strategy for how monetary policy instruments can achieve these goals. Source: Kevin Chen Kaifeng Chen...

2137d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰#Federal Reserve #monetary policy #Chen Kaifeng

Other than Tesla, what other electric car company stocks can I watch?

The US stock Tesla Motors should be an absolute superstar this year. Although Tesla's stock price has declined recently, there is no doubt about the huge increase in Tesla stock. Judging from the past year, the company's stock price has increased about 10 times. It is a standard 10X stock described by famous American investment master Peter Lynch. Moreover, the company also complies with the stock selection criteria mentioned by Lynch in his “Defeating Wall Street”: well-known, invest in companies you are familiar with. This is also what I have observed myself. Whether on the streets of New York or Los Angeles, or in the domestic first-tier cities north, there are already more and more Tesla cars. So, in addition to Tesla, what other electric vehicle companies can pay attention to in this sector? This article would like to share and summarize other electric vehicle sector companies in the US stock market, including electric vehicles in China Securities, for everyone to discuss. 1. When Tesla talks about electric cars, let's first take a look at the situation of Tesla cars. Tesla (Tesla, trading code is TSLA) is the godfather of the electric vehicle industry and is likely to become the hegemon of the global automotive industry in the future. Therefore, this company should be one of the best stocks to buy electric cars. Data as of 2019 shows that Tesla controls about 16% of the global passenger car market. Thanks to new vehicles and geographical expansion, this figure is up from 8% in 2017. These two drivers will remain the same for years to come. Tesla will launch the Model Y this year. Then there are electric trucks. At the same time, the company will continue to expand into Europe, lead the market position in China, and eventually enter Latin America. Against the backdrop of all this growth, Tesla will continue to produce the best cars in the industry, as Tesla has a huge lead in battery technology and autonomous driving. Meanwhile, Tesla's brand assets are second to none. Strong brand assets won't be diluted in the short term. Over the next few years, Tesla will continue to be the unrivaled leader in the consumer electric vehicle market. Of course, for Tesla stock investors, the biggest problem is valuation. The current market value of the company has exceeded 390 billion US dollars. The corresponding current P/E is about 930 times, and the corresponding expected profit P/E is about 116 times. The ratio of the company's market capitalization to sales revenue is slightly more than 14 times. Judging from various indicators, the company's valuation is indeed extremely high, so once market sentiment fluctuates, such as recent disappointment with Battery Day (Battery Day), the stock price will plummet. 2. Wall Street controversy Electric Truck Company Nikola This year Nikola Motors (NKLA) is Wall Street's newly listed electric truck company that has been questioned. The company debuted in early June through a reverse merger. Within a few days, NKLA's stock price soared from $30 to $90. This company is on par with Tesla in many ways. The company name is the name adopted by the great inventor Nikola Tesla. In short, it is leading the way in creating a new type of futuristic, zero-emission, and cost-effective truck. The company intends to first use electric and hydrogen transport trucks to serve the commercial trucking market, and then electric and hydrogen transport trucks to serve the consumer car market. If the company successfully seizes the opportunity to completely disrupt the trucking industry, and the company should be able to receive significant support, technical advantages, strategic partnerships, and a leading position in the hydrogen energy market, then the company's stock price is likely to soar. The company's partner agency and majority shareholder is General Motors (GM), and the management also includes some former executives from GM. Of course, questions about Nikola cars have always been heard. The founder of the company recently left his job abruptly. The company's stock price has also fallen sharply, and its market value has fallen by more than 50%. Next, the innovation and development of electric trucks and hydrogen energy trucks, as well as GM's participation and positioning in Nicola, will have an extremely important impact on the company's development. 3. Electric tricycle company Achimoto US stock market This year's electric vehicle market has a very special small company that produces electric tricycles: Arcimoto (Arcimoto, trading code: FUV). Archimoto manufactures three-wheeled electric vehicles. The company believes the future of cars could have three wheels. Its bet is that three-wheeled electric vehicles have enough special use cases around the world, and demand for these smaller, more flexible, and cheaper vehicles will be very strong. (Electric tricycle company: Archimoto products, photo source: insideevs.com) Specifically, Archimoto's current product for consumers is called a multi-purpose vehicle (FUV), which looks a lot like the next one...

2138d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰#Tesla #electric car #autonomous driving #Chen Kaifeng

How to understand the US economic recovery based on recent labor market data?

The US labor market has performed better than expected in recent weeks, but there is still a long way to go before the economy fully recovers. As of September 5, the number of weekly jobless claims reached 884,000, the second week in a row below the one million threshold. Meanwhile, the job market added 1.4 million jobs in August, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4% from 10.2% in July. However, more than 29 million workers still receive some form of unemployment benefit, and this number has remained between 2700-32 million since the beginning of May. From a broader economic perspective, Moody's Analytics and the CNN Business Return to Normal Index (an economy that measures pre-pandemic levels) show that economic activity bottomed out of 59.2% in mid-April and is currently 78.8%, or 21% lower than before the pandemic. Although it looks like the worst economic downturn is over, significant downside risks will persist until the virus is brought under control. Have inflation expectations changed in light of the reopening of the US economy in recent months? Although the initial rebound of the US economic restart in August is weakening, consumer price inflation in the US continued to move in a healthy direction in August. After three consecutive months of decline from March to May, core CPI maintained month-on-month growth for the third consecutive month. Thus, given that economic activity has begun to rebound, a deflationary spiral appears less likely. Still, the most fascinating news about inflation relates to the Federal Reserve's decision to change its policy framework by adopting an average inflation target system. Although the move is mild and suggests that more stimulus measures may be introduced, it also suggests that the Federal Reserve will allow (or possibly) raise the inflation rate above its 2% target throughout the cycle. Furthermore, due to new changes in the Federal Reserve's policy framework, the first rate hike in this cycle will not occur until 2024 at the earliest, according to capital economic forecasts. As a result, the impact of a long-term low interest rate environment will reverberate in financial markets, including the commercial real estate sector, as investors seek returns. What are the short-term return expectations for commercial real estate? According to the American Pension Real Estate Association (PREA) consensus survey forecast for the third quarter, pension fund investors expect overall total earnings from the NCREIF Real Estate Index (NPI) to fall by 2.7% in 2020, which is 130 basis points higher than the second-quarter survey. . Respondents to the PREA survey remain optimistic that NPI will rebound in the next few years, that is, the overall return in 2021 will reach 2.5%, and the overall return in 2022 will reach 7.3%. As one would expect, retail properties are expected to be the worst affected by the pandemic, with the biggest decline. This year it was 11.4%, 2021 was 1.1%, then eventually rebounded to 5.8% in 2022. The office building industry is expected to fall into negative growth in 2020 with a total return of -2.6%. However, positive growth is expected over the next two years, 1.0% in 2021 and 7.0% in 2022. Apartment properties are expected to decline 0.9% in 2020, then rebound to 4.9% in 2021 and 7.9% the following year. The industrial sector remains the only major real estate type to record a positive total return this year, at 3.5%, next year 6.2%, and 2022, 8.9%, respectively. We agree with the survey's general opinion that the commercial real estate market will be in a healthy state by 2022. However, survey participants may have underestimated the impact that increased capital flows chasing real estate will have on earnings over the next few years, particularly given the slow growth and long-term low interest rate environment. Is the increase in delinquency rates an indication that bottom-up buying opportunities are imminent? CoStar estimates that after growth in all major sources of capital in the second quarter, the amount of commercial real estate loan arrears has now exceeded $64 billion. When considering more than $3 trillion in outstanding loans, the total amount of delinquent loans is relatively small, but it's important to remember that most lenders don't count delinquent loans into the total amount of arrears. As a result, as the COVID-19 loan forbearance period ends, the default rate is likely to be even higher. For example, according to DBRS Morningstar data, there are 41 billion US dollars in arrears on CMBS loans today, but currently the amount of CMBS loans tolerated by COVID-19 loans is even higher, close to 56 billion US dollars. The tolerance period during a pandemic is generally 90-180 days. As a result, we expect the default rate to rise in the coming months, which may lead to opportunities to buy non-performing loans, particularly in hotels and retail properties. The latest situation in the real estate industry · Retail: Coll...

2143d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰#Chen Kaifeng

Five major trends in global healthcare technology investment after the COVID-19 pandemic

This year's COVID-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on countries around the world, and it can be said that the most direct impact is on the healthcare industry. From medical service institutions such as major hospitals and clinics, to pharmaceutical companies, to research and development institutions for new drugs and vaccines, to medical research institutes, etc., it can be said that the entire industry is undergoing a test once every 100 years. The medical funds and medical institutions I have participated in have also changed a lot since the outbreak of the epidemic. I hope to share some of the major trends we have observed in the field of healthcare through this article. 1. The rapid development of telemedicine/online medical care After the COVID-19 outbreak, medical institutions and patients soon realized that hospitals had actually become the hardest hit area of the epidemic. The influx of patients into hospitals has led to a huge number of cases of the spread of the coronavirus. Other than physical isolation, it is difficult to have a complete solution to this. Actually, the only solution is to try not to allow patients who don't need to meet in person to seek medical treatment remotely or via the internet. (Columbia University Digital Health Seminar, Photo Credit: Columbia University) A data revealed by a Presbyterian Hospital doctor at the Columbia University Digital Health New Opportunities Online Seminar held last month was very illustrative. He said that before the COVID-19 outbreak, the actual number of patients treated online each week at New York Presbyterian Hospital was about 1,000 patients. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the number of people currently treating patients online each week in hospitals is about 30,000. In other words, the number of patients treated online at a top New York hospital has increased 30 times. It is worth mentioning that the government's deregulation of online diagnosis and treatment has also played a big role. In the past, doctors in the US were required to practice after local registration in each state. After the outbreak of the epidemic, the government allowed doctors to conduct online medical services over the Internet from other locations across states. This change suddenly freed up empty medical resources in many places, and also accelerated the development of online medical care. Of course, the capital market also highly respects telemedicine. One of the star companies in the US stock market this year is Teladoc (telemedicine company). The stock price has more than doubled from the beginning of the year to now, with a market capitalization of more than 15 billion US dollars. The company is headquartered in the suburbs of New York where I am located. Listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 2015, it is now able to provide telemedicine services in 50 states across the US. The services offered fall into six categories: platform and program services, guidance and support, expert health services, mental health services, telemedicine, and integrated virtual care. As a software company, Teladoc Health is involved in artificial intelligence and analysis. The company mainly uses telephone and video conferencing software to provide on-demand telemedicine. Patients can log in to the service at any time and get in touch with an American practitioner within a few minutes. The company's doctors treat non-emergency situations such as flu, pink eyes, infections, sinus problems, mental health issues, skin conditions, etc. The company has a network of doctors covering 450 medical subspecialties, and 55,000 doctors have joined. (Teladoc was listed on the New York Stock Exchange in July 2015, photo source: NYSE) In terms of revenue sources, Teladoc mainly signs contracts with insurance companies and large employers to generate revenue through annual annual fee income and personal consulting fees. It's worth mentioning that the company's medical services are available in around 30 languages. The rapid development of telemedicine has given a huge boost not only to medical companies, but also to businesses such as cloud computing and network service providers. There are very high requirements for data transmission speed, bandwidth, storage capacity, etc. Looking at the next step, the huge opportunity for telemedicine lies in remote surgery. Currently, there is an extreme shortage of resources for doctors in surgery, especially neurosurgery, oncology and other related industries. Patients and doctors often need to fly long distances to surgery centers. Some of the innovative investments I have participated in include projects where senior physicians perform surgeries on others through remote control robots. Once this technology matures, it will have a revolutionary impact on surgery. 2. Decentralized medical facilities One major change in recent years by a large American medical management group that the author is involved in investing in and managing is the construction of “decentralized” medical facilities. In other words, in the past few years, apart from several world-class comprehensive medical centers across the US, such as Mayo Clinic, Cleveland Clinic, and Massachusetts General Hospital, in fact, general regional comprehensive medical centers have gradually shrunk. It has been replaced by the booming development of specialty medical institutions. Examples include an American chain of cardiovascular diagnosis and treatment institutions, an American chain of dermatology clinics, clinics specializing in immune diseases, etc. More and more patients are choosing to go to specialized clinics rather than going to...

2143d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰#Chen Kaifeng

Other than Tesla, what other electric car company stocks can I watch?

The US stock Tesla Motors should be an absolute superstar this year. Although Tesla's stock price has declined recently, there is no doubt about the huge increase in Tesla stock. Judging from the past year, Tesla's stock price has increased about 10 times, which is a standard 10X stock described by famous American investment master Peter Lynch. Moreover, the company also complies with the stock selection criteria mentioned by Lynch in his “Defeating Wall Street”: well-known, invest in companies you are familiar with. This is also what I have observed myself. Whether on the streets of New York or Los Angeles, or in the domestic first-tier cities north, there are already more and more Tesla cars. So, in addition to Tesla, what other electric vehicle companies can pay attention to in this sector? This article would like to share and summarize other electric vehicle sector companies in the US stock market, including electric vehicles in China Securities, for everyone to discuss. 01 Tesla (Tesla logo, image source network) Speaking of electric cars, let's first take a look at the situation of Tesla cars. Tesla (Tesla, trading code is TSLA) is the godfather of the electric vehicle industry and is likely to become the hegemon of the global automotive industry in the future. Therefore, this company should be one of the best stocks to buy electric cars. Data as of 2019 shows that Tesla controls about 16% of the global passenger car market. Thanks to new vehicles and geographical expansion, this figure is up from 8% in 2017. These two drivers will remain the same for years to come. Tesla will launch the Model Y this year, followed by an electric truck. Meanwhile, the company will continue to expand into Europe, lead the market position in China, and eventually enter Latin America. (Tesla Motors, Source Network) Against the backdrop of all growth, Tesla will continue to produce the best cars in the industry because Tesla has a huge lead in battery technology and autonomous driving. Meanwhile, Tesla's brand assets are second to none. Strong brand assets won't be diluted in the short term. Over the next few years, Tesla will continue to be the unrivaled leader in the consumer electric vehicle market. Of course, for Tesla stock investors, the biggest problem is valuation. The current market value of the company has exceeded 390 billion US dollars. The corresponding current P/E is about 930 times, and the corresponding expected profit P/E is about 116 times. The ratio of the company's market capitalization to sales revenue is slightly more than 14 times. Judging from various indicators, the company's valuation is indeed extremely high, so once market sentiment fluctuates, such as recent disappointment with Battery Day (Battery Day), the stock price will plummet. 02 Wall Street's controversial electric truck company Nikola This year Nikola Motors (NKLA) is Wall Street's newly listed electric truck company that has been questioned. The company debuted in early June through a reverse merger. Within a few days, NKLA's stock price soared from $30 to $90. This company is on par with Tesla in many ways. The company name is the name adopted by the great inventor Nikola Tesla. In short, it is leading the way in creating a new type of futuristic, zero-emission, and cost-effective truck. The company intends to first use electric and hydrogen transport trucks to serve the commercial trucking market, and then electric and hydrogen transport trucks to serve the consumer car market. (“Nikola Two” (Nikola Two), Source Network) If the company successfully seizes the opportunity to completely disrupt the trucking industry, and the company should be able to receive tremendous support, technical advantages, strategic partnerships, and a leading position in the hydrogen energy market, then the company's stock price is likely to rise sharply. The company's partner agency and majority shareholder is General Motors (GM), and the management also includes some former executives from GM. Of course, questions about Nikola cars have always been heard. The founder of the company recently left his job abruptly. The company's stock price has also fallen sharply, and its market value has fallen by more than 50%. Next, the innovation and development of electric trucks and hydrogen energy trucks, as well as GM's participation and positioning in Nicola, will have an extremely important impact on the company's development. 03 Electric tricycle company Achimoto US stock market This year's electric vehicle market has a very special small company that produces electric tricycles: Arcimoto (Arcimoto, trading code: FUV). Archimoto manufactures three-wheeled electric vehicles. The company believes the future of cars could have three wheels. Its bet is that three-wheeled electric vehicles have enough special use cases around the world, and demand for these smaller, more flexible, and cheaper vehicles will be strong. (Electric tricycle company: Archimoto products, photo credit: insi...

2151d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰#Tesla #electric car

What do you think of the recent start of negotiations between the US and Kenya on a free trade agreement?

The US recently began negotiations on a free trade agreement with Kenya. This negotiation is a transformation. The so-called “drunkard doesn't mean alcohol”. At the beginning of the negotiations, Africa was not the White House administration's top priority in formulating a new business plan — this approach was more like a countermeasure to counter China's commercial, security, and geopolitical influence in Africa; rather than a proactive measure to fully implement initiatives such as “Prosper Africa” and “America's Strategy for Africa.” These initiatives, put forward in 2018 and 2019, represent America's strategy to win in Africa, and were originally intended to promote mutual interests between the two sides. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has implemented a strong long-term philanthropic and socio-economic development policy through the African Development Fund, the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), and the US President's Emergency Assistance Program (PEPFAR). Over the past decade, although the US has generally strengthened its economic connectivity with the African continent, the process has been tortuous, and it can be said that there have been few results. Looking at it, although the COVID-19 pandemic has caused huge losses to global trade, the total trade volume between the US and Africa in 2019 was US$31.3 billion, according to data from the US Foreign Trade Census Bureau (Jan-Jul). In the same period of 2020, this figure was only $12.7 billion. A successful trade deal would be the latest step to revitalize bilateral relations, as the US Trade Representative said, “The two countries recognize that the agreement between the two countries may serve as a model for other agreements in Africa.” America's renewed strength in the close bilateral relationship between the US and Africa may create an economic lifeblood — particularly during times of financial instability and uncertainty; the COVID-19 pandemic is the most obvious example. The relationship between China and its African partners is complex and not without controversy. From a certain perspective, it can be seen that China's loan practices exist, and many cases show that China's aid has been and will continue to be inextricably linked to purchases of Chinese companies and state-owned enterprises (SOEs). In contrast, the US has provided hundreds of millions of dollars of contracts to Chinese companies under the MCC agreement, and US companies are unheard of, or have few records of, implementing projects similar to Chinese aid. China's flagship global development strategy “Belt and Road” has invested $1 trillion in about 70 countries/regions. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the Sino-US trade war, Hong Kong security laws, and the decline in global trade, the relationship between China and Africa can help mitigate the impact on the economy. At the beginning of June this year, China stated at the China-Africa summit that the first topic in the fight against COVID-19 is “mask diplomacy.” The Alibaba Foundation has led the donation of personal protective equipment to several African countries. As a major global supplier of personal protective equipment throughout Africa and beyond, Alibaba's regular business can also benefit from it. Chinese-led infrastructure construction has also played a role in the delivery of supplementary health care. Insufficient electricity generation is a long-standing problem faced by many African countries and must be increased in order to use new equipment. The main Chinese partners in this field in Africa are China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Sinopec. While hospitals, warehouses, and manufacturing centers are being built, roads must also be built. Companies involved in this task include China Civil Engineering and Construction Corporation (CCECC), which received a $6.68 billion order in 2018 to complete Nigeria's Lagos-Kano standard railway. Supported by sufficient capital and full cooperation, the efforts of Chinese partners in healthcare and supporting industries have not only provided long-lasting sustainable products and services to the African market, but also provided considerable rewards for themselves. Chinese companies have also been paying close attention to the development of infrastructure projects related to the African Continental Free Trade Agreement. However, this bilateral relationship is not flawless either. China's development initiatives and aid in Africa are also a demonstration of its “soft power.” In development, the Chinese government can use this channel to increase its influence. As a partner in infrastructure construction in Africa, the Chinese government will provide loans through institutions such as the Export-Import Bank of China, which may account for 85% of the total financing amount. The terms tied to the loan usually include a Chinese company leading the project, and the equipment used can only come from China, etc. Contrary to popular belief, locals enjoy the benefits of job creation. However, as engagement increases, some major issues are emerging. For African partners, much of the infrastructure construction involves unfavorable financial, technical, and environmental terms. The Chinese state-owned enterprise that eventually establishes the proposed infrastructure is usually the same company that makes the assessment. Critics point out that development under this model is not worth the price of the project (essentially a loan), and that these projects...

2159d agoKevin Chen 陈凯丰#USA #free trade #Chen Kaifeng