预测市场 · 2397

An account bought $200,000 CS2 EWC Cup semi-final FUT beat Furia

Comparative news, predictive market tool monitoring shows that in the Polymarket “CS2 EWC Cup FUT vs. Furia” prediction event, the $550,000 losing account (0xcd30f4698c6f5f3829893e68e18f316) bought 200,000 USD FUT to win over Furia, with an average opening price of 39.7cents and a purchase share of 500,998.8 shares. The FUT game against Furia began at 22:00 on August 22. The format is BO3. Furia is strong, and FUT is the current EWC dark horse team. Join, one step faster.

1m ago

Crypto exchange trading revenue share declined, and Coinbase and others increased stablecoin and prediction markets

Comparative news: In the second quarter, the trading revenue of the three listed crypto exchanges Coinbase, Bullish, and Gemini declined sequentially. The gap between transactional and non-transactional revenue of all three platforms narrowed, and Coinbase reduced the difference from around $132 million to $44 million in one year. Coinbase expanded the layout of products such as stablecoins and prediction markets, and the average USDC holdings increased 44% year over year to $20 billion in the third quarter. Gemini tripled the number of market makers in the forecast market at the beginning of the year. Bullish launched a new rewards program to support the trading business, and adjusted transaction revenue fell 21% month-on-month to $29.9 million in the second quarter, but increased 24% year-over-year. Gemini's trading volume fell 66% year over year to $3.8 billion, and transaction revenue fell 38%.

2h ago

Pantera: Bitcoin breaks through the 200-day EMA, funds turn bullish

Comparing news, Pantera Capital published an article stating that Bitcoin has been in a narrow fluctuation range for the past six months, and the market is often intense and large after consolidation is over. Currently, market positions are being reversed, and investors are shifting from wait-and-see or even net shorts to a growing desire to go long. Bitcoin broke through the 200-day EMA at $69,000 and has attracted momentum and trend tracking funds to enter the market. From a long-term perspective, digital asset prices are still about 50% higher than before, but fundamentals continue to strengthen, including stablecoin adoption, predictive markets, perpetual contracts, and agency commerce. When fundamentals improve and prices are still discounted, the logic for continuing to maintain constructive positions is more clear.

6h ago

Data: Markets on Polymarket are betting that the probability of BTC hitting $80,000 in August is about 81%

Comparing the news, predicting the market Polymarket's question “What price will Bitcoin reach in August?” According to the contract, up to now, the probability that BTC will hit $80,000 in August is about 81%, the probability of touching $82,500 is about 49%, and the probability of touching $85,000 is about 27%. The probability of falling below $75,000 is about 50%. The above data changes in real-time with market transactions, and there are still about 9 days until the end of August.

7h ago

[Comparative Daily News Picks] Anthropic plans to include anti-AI sentiment as the main risk factor in the prospectus; Strategy's stock price hit a two-month high, and STRC returned above $96; Bernstein: Even if the “Clarity Act” is not passed, the SEC and CFTC will speed up rule-making; Dalio: The US debt crisis may break out within three years, and it is recommended to increase gold holdings

Daily AI · Crypto · Macro · Market Highlights, Bitpush helps you set priorities ↓ AI · News [Anthropic plans to include anti-AI sentiment as the main risk factor in the prospectus]. According to CNBC, Anthropic is expected to list the public's negative sentiment about artificial intelligence and data centers as a risk factor in the IPO prospectus to be released in the next few weeks. According to people familiar with the matter, Anthropic recently held a pre-listing “market trial” meeting with bankers and investors. Investors focused on competitive pressure, the impact of open source models on profit margins, and the risks that may be brought about by a slowdown in data center construction. Anthropic is currently valued at close to $1 trillion in the private equity market and is preparing to hit a major IPO. However, as Americans' concerns about AI replacing employment and data center expansion heat up, the related backlash sentiment is becoming a new challenge facing the company's listing. The company has previously achieved an annualized revenue operating rate of more than 65 billion US dollars. [Apple cuts Siri and Vision Pro team positions, and resources shift to AI and new devices] Compared to news, Apple (AAPL.O) is laying off employees from various teams responsible for Siri's digital assistants and Vision Pro headsets. The total impact of this layoff is more than 200 people. Of these, about 100 jobs in the Vision Pro department have been abolished, and about 100 other positions in the Siri and software teams have been cut. The move is part of the company's efforts to focus resources on new devices and artificial intelligence. People familiar with the matter said that in this adjustment, Apple has basically shut down a team dedicated to the Vision Pro game business, while also reducing the size of the department responsible for producing immersive video content for the device. Apple admitted in a statement that the company is making adjustments to some teams “to drive business development and provide the best experience for users.” [Castle Securities: Over 80% of the overall risk in the Situational Awareness Fund portfolio has been divested] According to the Financial Times, Castle Securities founder Ken Griffin responded to the company's acquisition of Situational Awareness assets under Leopold (Leopold) in a letter to clients on Friday. According to a letter obtained by CNBC, Griffin told clients that Castle Securities had divested more than 80% of the overall risk in the original purchased portfolio by conducting more than 100 major transactions (with a market value of more than $4 billion). In his letter, Griffin wrote, “A transaction of this scale would not have been possible without the full cooperation of the transaction teams and lead brokerage teams of the banks serving the two companies. I am very grateful for their dedicated efforts to complete the portfolio transfer quickly.” Griffin also confirmed that the company's flagship multi-strategy fund, the Wellington Fund, had a return of 5.94% in July, which is the fund's best monthly performance since 2022. [AI cloud company Nscale seeks to raise 3 billion US dollars in US IPOs] In comparison, AI cloud company Nscale is reportedly seeking to raise 3 billion US dollars in a US IPO. In the crypto market [Strategy stock price hit a two-month high, STRC returned above $96], the Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) stock price rose to a two-month high today as the Bitcoin price briefly broke through $79,400. It broke through $120 during the intraday period, then partially regained its gains. Meanwhile, the price of STRC, Strategy's preferred stock product, also surpassed $96 for the first time since June. Previously, STRC's price once fell below $70 due to concerns about its ability to pay dividends and the ability of the stock price to maintain the $100 target for a long time. [Bernstein: Even if the Clarity Act is not passed, the SEC and CFTC will speed up rulemaking] Comparing news, the Bernstein analyst team led by Gautam Chhugani released a report stating that regardless of the procedural voting results of the “Clarity Act” on September 15, the certainty of US crypto regulation is expected to increase. They expect the SEC and CFTC to accelerate rulemaking in areas such as native crypto asset issuance, tokenized stocks, perpetual futures, computing power derivatives, and predictive markets. This regulatory clarity of expectations has become one of the broader supporting factors in the crypto market. 【A...

12h agoBitpushNews#Compare Daily Picks

Bernstein: Even if the Clarity Act doesn't pass, the SEC and CFTC will speed up rulemaking

Comparing news, Bernstein's team of analysts led by Gautam Chhugani released a report stating that regardless of the September 15 “Clarity Act” procedural voting results, the certainty of US crypto regulation is expected to increase. They expect the SEC and CFTC to accelerate rulemaking in areas such as native crypto asset issuance, tokenized stocks, perpetual futures, computing power derivatives, and predictive markets. This regulatory clarity of expectations has become one of the broader supporting factors in the crypto market.

18h agoWendy#starters

CFTC Chairman Says It Will Defend Exclusive Regulatory Authority to Predict Markets and Set Rules

Comparing news, CFTC Chairman Selig posted on social media that Congress has given the CFTC exclusive control over forecasting markets. The CFTC will not only defend its jurisdiction and oppose states' attempts to repeal federal laws and apply state anti-Chinese cuisine laws to designated contract markets (DCM), but it will also exercise that power by establishing clear rules for these markets. Selig said that the CFTC will actively maintain a unified regulatory framework at the federal level, ensure that the prediction market operates under a clear compliance path, and avoid the impact of state-level anti-Facebook rules on federally regulated DCM.

20h ago

Tom Lee: More optimistic about Robinhood than Kalshi because predicting market regulation issues is complicated

Comparing news, Tom Lee was asked in an interview with the podcast if you could only hold it for ten years, would you choose Robinhood or Kalshi? Tom Lee answered that he would choose Robinhood. They have a kind of moat that establishes a real connection with their customers. Sometimes investors underestimate the importance of the Robinhood user interface. Tom Lee believes that predicting regulatory risk in the market is a very complex issue. It involves local regulators and court decisions.

21h ago

predict.fun launches Wang Zhe Rongyao Professional League prediction market

Comparative news. According to official news, predict.fun announced the launch of the Wangzhe Rongyao Professional League prediction market. Users can predict and trade events such as match wins and losses, and match results. This launch marks the further expansion of predict.fun into the e-sports field. Users can express judgments on tournament results through the on-chain market and obtain potential benefits based on changes in market prices. Unlike traditional e-sports betting models, predicting the market forms dynamic probabilities through the trading behavior of market participants, providing an open and transparent price discovery mechanism for tournament results.

22h ago

Bernstein: Bitcoin's shock to $80,000 was driven by liquidity, ETF funding flows have picked up

Comparative news, according to The Block, analysts at Bernstein believe that Bitcoin's rebound over the past two days may mark a shift in market momentum, behind which is an improvement in the liquidity environment, a recovery in ETF demand, and friendly regulation. Bitcoin hit $79,500 on Friday and then fell back to about $78,000. Analysts linked this round of rebound to the US Treasury's announcement to increase repurchases of long-term treasury bonds, believing that liquidity expansion has always been beneficial to Bitcoin. Furthermore, Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin in this round of rebound, which analysts attributed to ETH's higher exposure to stablecoins, tokenization, and real assets. Spot Bitcoin ETF capital flows have changed from net outflows in May and June to net inflows of $1.6 billion this week, and the management scale has risen to over $85 billion; Strategy holdings have changed to surplus of over $2 billion, and cash reserves can cover 2.8-year dividend expenses. Bernstein also mentioned that regardless of whether the much-publicized “CLARITY Act” (which will be subject to a procedural vote on September 15) is passed, the SEC and CFTC are expected to speed up the legislative process in areas such as native token issuance, equity tokenization, perpetual contracts, computing power derivatives, and predictive markets. This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

1d agoburnking