Review of this week's macro hot topics: the US debt crisis, AI infrastructure, and geopolitical conflicts are the main lines of the market this week
Comparing news, the global market this week focused on US debt pressure, AI capital expansion, and the US-Iran economic game. After the US Treasury expanded the scale of long-term treasury bond repurchases, US bond yields declined briefly, but the market feared that fiscal deficits and debt growth pressure would be difficult to ease through liquidity tools. The US federal government debt surpassed 40 trillion US dollars for the first time. The yield on 30-year US bonds once rose to a high level since 2007, and the global long-term bond market was under pressure simultaneously. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting show that internal hawkish forces are growing, and there are more than three voting members supporting interest rate hikes. Some officials are concerned that tariffs, energy prices, and AI infrastructure investments could drive up inflation. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh suggested that in the future, consideration could be given to reducing the number of annual meetings from 8 to 6. Driven by the weakening dollar and risk aversion, gold broke through the 4,600 US dollars/ounce mark this week and rose for the third week in a row; crude oil was higher, supported by the risk of the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of US sanctions against Iran. Geographically, the US-Iran relationship is shifting to putting pressure on the economy. The US plans to weaken Iran's economy by expanding sanctions and economic isolation, while Iran is studying countermeasures against energy transportation nodes, and the safety of the Strait of Hormuz has become the focus of market attention. In the field of technology, AI infrastructure competition continues to escalate. Nvidia guarantees up to $105 billion for the OpenAI data center project, and Broadcom is also planning an AI financing plan of up to $100 billion. Meanwhile, Anthropic's revenue surpassed OpenAI for the first time, and plans to advance IPOs, further intensifying AI companies' commercialization competition. On the capital market side, Yushu Technology skyrocketed on the first day it landed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. At one point, its market capitalization exceeded 44 billion yuan, and founder Wang Xingxing's net worth increased dramatically. South Korean semiconductor giant SK Hynix announced a repurchase plan of approximately 40 trillion won, and Samsung is also planning to increase shareholder returns. Furthermore, trade negotiations between the US and Canada ushered in a critical window. The US suspended the imposition of up to 50% tariffs on Canadian goods for three days, and the two sides continued to seek trade agreements. The core logic of the market this week still revolves around three themes: whether US fiscal pressure worsens further, whether AI capital investment is forming a new round of asset bubbles, and whether global geopolitical risks are driving safe-haven assets to continue to rise.
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