Tiger Research · 51

RootData establishes strategic partnership with Tiger Research

Comparatively, Web3 asset data platform RootData has established a strategic partnership with Tiger Research, Korea's leading crypto research institution. According to the agreement, Tiger Research will fully adopt the API data interface provided by RootData to provide underlying data support for various industry research reports, market insights and project analysis. As a comprehensive data platform, RootData has a large number of indicators such as project fundamentals, financing history, team background, and popularity index. This collaboration will enable Tiger Research's research team to efficiently obtain structured, highly reliable data sets, significantly improve research efficiency and data breadth, and produce more timely and in-depth analytical results. At the same time, RootData's data partner network has also been further expanded, marking the verification of the application value of its data services in professional research scenarios. At present, RootData has accumulated more than 220 data partners, making it one of the key structured data providers in the cryptographic industry.

2d ago

2036: The world we will face in ten years

Source: Tiger Research Authors: Ekko an, Ryan Yoon Compiled and edited by: BitPushNews Translator's Note/ TL; DR This article uses a fictional perspective from 2036 to reveal the core evolution of blockchain over the next ten years: no longer tell big stories, but completely infiltrate the underlying infrastructure. Extreme pragmatism (stablecoin): Say goodbye to hype, become an underground hard currency to replace fiat currency in regions with high inflation, and even reverse erode national finance and taxation rights. Everything can be traded (RWA): Stocks, real estate, and bonds are fully tokenized, and highly leveraged transactions without borders around the clock have become the daily investment routine of the younger generation. Infrastructure clean-up (wave of L2 bankruptcies): 99% of redundant public chains that depended on airdrops and subsidies completely disappeared, leaving only a few top monopoly public chains in the end. Restructuring Internet commerce (machine economy): AI traffic surpasses humans, and traditional advertising completely fails; with the rise of micropayment protocols (x402), AI agents pay as needed to become the main source of monetization for Internet content. Below is the text: ----------As of 2026, blockchain technology has not changed the world. But will it bring about significant changes by 2036? All aboard — the time machine is about to depart for 2036. 1. “Does anyone else use banknotes?” In 2036, Zutopia — a fictional, inflation-prone country — a currency exchange office. Judy, who has been working in this job for 34 years, pulled out a banknote counter from the drawer and began to count Buck notes. “There are people who use Buck.” That makes sense. Buck — the currency of this inflation-prone country — depreciates every day. It still exists by law, but no one actually uses it anymore. Everyone uses US dollar stablecoins in their daily lives. Tick-tick-tock. Judy listened to the banknote counter loudly counting banknotes, recalling all these years. In 2002, Judy was 22 years old. That year, Zutopia declared that the country had breached its contract. Banks have locked their doors, and people can't withdraw the deposits they have saved for the rest of their lives. “We have to replace it now.” Judy's father said. As soon as your salary is paid, you must immediately convert it to US dollars. Even after just one day, Buck's purchasing power will visibly shrink with the naked eye. People look at the black market dollar exchange rate more positively than reading the front pages of newspapers. “How much is the dollar today?” This question opens up every day. Buying dollars at the official exchange rate is almost impossible. The government sets a monthly foreign exchange purchase limit for each person, and no one knows when banks will freeze dollar deposits. Then, in the mid-2020s, young clients started asking her a question she couldn't understand. “Can USDT be exchanged?” At first, only a few freelancers and exporters would use it to receive overseas remittances. There is no need for a bank, and there are no long lines in front of the exchange counter. With a mobile phone, you can exchange Bucks for stablecoins, and then exchange them back when needed. At the time, Judy never thought this would replace her job. Older people still need cash, and so do many businesses. But the team got shorter little by little. Younger clients disappear first, followed by middle-aged people. By 2030, no one will even line up for payday. Once the company had no reason to hold Buck, they began paying part of their wages directly in stablecoins. Buck has become a currency you only need to pay taxes and utility bills. In 2033, the Inland Revenue Department changed its position. The calculation is simple: using stablecoins to collect tax arrears is more cost-effective than collecting Buck. A short notice was posted on the website: “USDC and USDT can be used as alternative payment methods for tax returns.” Buck still exists, but the country itself has just announced that it would rather accept other people's money than its own currency. In 2034, the Ministry of Finance followed suit. The auction of treasury bonds denominated in bucks failed one after another, and the Ministry of Finance eventually issued new bonds denominated in US dollar stablecoins. Civil servants' wages followed closely. In 2035, some state governments will begin to pay half of civil servants' wages in stablecoins — because those who only get paid Buck are the first to be hit by inflation and the hardest hit. Printing money, collecting taxes, paying public servants — these have always been powers unique to the country. Little by little, this power is being transferred to stablecoins. As of May 2026, the total market value of stablecoins was approximately US$320 billion, with an annual trading volume of US$28 trillion. Compared to the US wholesale payment network processing more than $2 trillion a day, this is less than three weeks of transaction volume. After excluding market washing transactions and false transaction volumes, less than 6% was actually used for actual payments. The remaining 88% simply circulates within the exchange — transactions, collateral, and back. The question is where exactly did that 6% happen...

18d agoWendy#AI #RWA #x402 #AI #Smart body #stablecoins

The $50 billion market: AI Agent wallet, a “not profitable right now” gamble

Source: Compiled and compiled by Tiger Research: BitPushNews headlines continuously report news about AI agents (artificial intelligence agents) carrying out autonomous transactions and processing payments. However, the crypto wallet industry has already secretly paved the way for this. Currently, more than ten companies are building custom wallets specifically for AI Agents. What exactly are they looking for? What is the potential ultimate return? Key Takeaways When AI agents browse the internet and buy goods or information on behalf of humans, they end up generating thousands of micropayments worth only a few cents each. Existing bank card payment networks (Card Rails) can't support such a small payment scale, so wallets that can automatically split and send funds based on pre-set conditions are critical. Despite the current lack of short-term profitability, companies such as Coinbase and Binance are actively building AI wallet infrastructure. Because this can target future customer groups before AI Agents begin large-scale transactions. The core of this phase is to build a user base before actual demand explodes. According to data calculations based on Coinbase, the rise in AI Agent usage is expected to increase its current revenue by up to 7 times. The payment records accumulated in the wallet can show whether the AI Agent is profitable, which opens the door to loans based on future earnings — similar to providing credit loans to small and micro businesses based on their credit card sales history. This is still at the stage of “possibility” rather than “proven”. Currently, AI agents still make operational mistakes and perform erroneous payments, and the relevant rules vary from country to country and company, and the legal status of AI agents is unclear. Therefore, the current competition is not about capturing current revenue, but rather about gaining an advantage in a large market that is expected to take shape several years ahead of schedule. 1. AI Agents are gaining momentum Earlier this year, an experiment that sparked widespread discussion on the prediction market Polymarket provided an AI Agent with $50 start-up capital and allowed it to trade independently. The experimental condition is that if it is unable to pay its own API and server costs through independent profit, it will cease to exist. The Agent then successfully completed the deal, and since then, a series of other Agents have begun to trade in a similar manner. Although AI Agents are not yet fully integrated into everyday life, there is no doubt that they will be widely used in the near future. 2. Every transaction with Agent begins when the wallet AI Agent has yet to enter the field of everyday payments. Their most active application right now is a cryptocurrency trading bot running within the crypto ecosystem. These bots are independent of traditional payment networks and specialize in cryptocurrency transactions. However, in the future, payments will expand into areas that are unimaginable today. As described in previous reports, AI is changing the nature of payments themselves. Once an Agent (not a human) directly interacts and navigates the web, the amount of a single payment drops dramatically. The cost of an API call or a single data query can be as low as $0.001, or even $0.00001 in extreme cases. Beyond current wallet usage scenarios, a programmable payment system (Programmable Payment System) is required to automatically split and send such small payments according to pre-set conditions without human intervention throughout the process. This is the context in which the x402 payment network came into being, and wallets are the foundation of the network's operation. However, existing payment networks are designed with “people” as transaction subjects. Credit cards are issued to individual cardholders and operate on a “chargeback (chargeback)” structure — that is, when there is a problem with the transaction, a human initiates a dispute and cancels the transaction, and a fixed processing fee of up to several tens of cents is set for each transaction. When a person makes an occasional $20 purchase, that's no problem; but once the Agent starts sending thousands of payments per second—even $0.001 per API call or $0.00001 per data record—this payment model no longer works economically. The core question is...

29d agoWendy#AI agent #Coinbase #wallets

South Korea's crypto trading volume has shrunk sharply, and retail funds are turning to the stock market to chase the KOSPI market

Comparing news, the trading volume of major South Korean cryptocurrency trading platforms has declined sharply over the past year, while the South Korean stock market continues to rise, indicating that some retail speculative funds are shifting from the crypto market to the stock market. According to the data, the trading activity of the five major Korean won trading platforms Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit, and Gopax declined markedly. Comparing the 7-day trading data for July 2025 and July 2026 for the same period, the average daily trading volume of the five trading platforms decreased by about 77% year over year. In terms of overall trading volume, the average daily trading volume of the five trading platforms fell from about US$2.82 billion in the same period last year to about US$305 million, a decrease of about 89%. Korean media ZDNet Korea also previously reported that as of July 20, the daily trading volume of the five major trading platforms in South Korea fell by about 88% year on year. Meanwhile, Korea's composite stock price index KOSPI has accumulated a cumulative increase of about 114% over the past year. Despite falling from a high point in June, strong stock market performance still attracted the attention of a large number of retail investors. South Korea has long been one of the most active crypto retail markets in the world, and trading platforms are highly dependent on transaction fee revenue. As trading volume declined, revenue from some trading platforms was under pressure, and Korbit previously even sold some of its crypto assets, including selling 15 BTC and 60 ETH, to raise around 1.6 billion won (about $1 million). Research agency Tiger Research believes that the cooling of the South Korean crypto market is not only due to price factors, but is also related to investors' gradual fatigue with repetitive narratives and unfulfilled projects. Meanwhile, the rise in KOSPI provided retail investors with a new channel for speculation. However, the agency pointed out that Korean investors are not completely losing interest in crypto assets, but that the market is undergoing a structural transformation: retail participation is declining, while institutional capital is being deployed in areas such as Korean won stablecoins, real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, and trading platform investments. Analysts believe that if the Korean stock market continues to attract capital inflows, it may continue to weaken the liquidity of the crypto market in the short term and increase the operating pressure on small and medium-sized trading platforms. This article is sponsored by GENG, Build Your Fortune on GENG (https://geng.one)

31d agoburnking

South Korea's top five crypto exchanges plummeted 88% in a year, and Korbit was forced to sell assets to maintain operations

Comparatively, according to a report by Korea's Joongang Ilbo, the five largest Korean won virtual asset exchanges have a total daily transaction volume of about 412.7 billion won, down 88% from a year ago. The total global virtual asset market value simultaneously shrunk by 41% to $2.322 trillion. The country's crypto industry leader Dunamu's first-quarter revenue and operating profit declined 55% and 78%, respectively, year over year. Small and medium exchanges are in an even more difficult situation. Coinone, Korbit, and Gopax, which recorded operating losses last year, are expected to continue to lose money this year. Korbit has sold its holdings three times this year, selling 15 bitcoins and 60 ethers within 10 days of this month, receiving approximately KRW 1.6 billion in cash. The director of Tiger Research said that it can currently be viewed as the “second crypto winter,” and the total crypto market value has shrunk drastically, and new projects are almost invisible. Despite the downturn in the market, the pace of introduction of blockchain by institutions is accelerating, and the core direction is tokenized assets and stablecoins. Major brokerage firms such as Future Asset have recently successively acquired shares in exchanges, and the country's government has also repeatedly expressed its determination to advance legislation on the Basic Law on Digital Assets, reflecting that medium- to long-term growth potential is still promising.

31d ago

Tiger Research: Crypto funding reached $13.3 billion in the first half of 2026, transaction rounds down 78% from 2022 peak

Comparative news, according to Tiger Research and RootData based on data from 9416 investment transactions in the first half of 2018-2026, the crypto market capital inflow reached 13.3 billion US dollars in the first half of 2026, which is basically the same as the full year of 13.2 billion US dollars in 2024, but the number of financing rounds was only 435, down 78% from the peak in 1978 in 2022, indicating that market capital is being concentrated on a small number of large transactions at an accelerated pace. The report points out that the current crypto investment market is dominated by a few large crypto-native VCs that focus on leading investments, and exchange venture capital departments with liquidity and marketing support, and medium-sized institutions are being rapidly squeezed out. In terms of the financing structure, the number of seed round transactions decreased by 88% to 81 compared to 2022, while Series A financing accounted for 75.2% of the total investment, of which Series A financing amount reached US$745.8 million, exceeding the total amount of total seed round financing of US$4233 million during the same period. On the racetrack side, payments and stablecoins, centralized exchanges, and prediction markets have become the most capital-intensive directions. The payments and stablecoin circuit attracted $2.85 billion in capital in the first half of 2026, but about 84% of it was driven by mergers and acquisitions such as Mastercard's acquisition of BVNK and Payward's acquisition of Reap; the share of CEX circuit investment rose to 18.2%, while the forecast market rose to 17.5%. In contrast, the number of game circuit funding rounds plummeted from 141 in 2024 to just 5, a 96% drop. Furthermore, traditional financial institutions participated in 54.5% of all investment transactions in the first half of 2026. According to reports, Tiger Research is an independent research institution founded in 2022 covering the Asian digital asset market. Its business layout covers South Korea, Japan, China, and Indonesia, and publishes institutional-level research content in 5 languages. It has more than 100,000 monthly readers and more than 200 institutional customers.

37d ago#financing

The 2026 H1 Crypto VC Report Unveiled What Cruel Signals

Source: Tiger Research Authors: Henry Kim, Ryan Yoon Compiled and edited by: BitPushNews Crypto market capital is undergoing a paradigm shift — funding is being concentrated at an accelerated pace on specific tracks and leading companies. Tiger Research and RootData jointly analyzed a total of 9,416 investment transaction data from 2018 to the first half of 2026 to outline the changing trajectory of this capital pattern. The core finding was that in the first half of 2026, capital inflows to the crypto market reached $13.3 billion, almost the same as the full year of 2024's $13.2 billion. However, funding rounds plummeted to just 435, a sharp drop of 78% from the 2022 peak of 1,978. The market is rapidly dividing: on one end there are a few large crypto-native venture capital firms that focus on leading investors, and on the other end are subsidiary investment departments that rely on exchange liquidity. Mid-sized funds, which are sandwiched in the middle and lack a clear competitive advantage, are being pushed out of the table at a speed visible to the naked eye. Game circuit funding rounds plummeted from 141 in 2024 to just 5 in the first half of 2026, a drop of 96%. The payments and stablecoin circuit, as well as capital inflows to the centralized exchange (CEX) circuit, are almost all driven by mergers and acquisitions. Traditional financial institutions participated in 54.5% of all investment transactions recorded in the first half of 2026. 1. 2021 Market Review: Using speed and diversification as a strategy The core strategy of the 2021 crypto investment market is to pursue speed and diversification of portfolios. In that year, investors executed a total of 1,750 transactions (including seed rounds), and competition for speed was so intense that AU21 Capital alone was able to close more than 13 transactions per month on average. Investment decisions at the time were reduced to extremely simple standards, such as token generation event (TGE) timelines and tokenomics (tokenomics, a structure that governs how project tokens are issued and distributed). Since issuing tokens alone can generate returns without any actual product development, venture investors largely pursue a “spray and pray” (spray and pray) strategy, spreading funds across hundreds of projects, regardless of their high or low valuations. Speed of execution was placed above strict due diligence. A new round of financing can close almost instantly, and venture capital firms that miss one round tend to chase the next project with a higher valuation. This fear of misunderstanding (FOMO) continues to circulate throughout the industry. Most VCs running this strategy failed to survive the subsequent bear market, and those that survived fundamentally changed their investment methods. 2. Which VCs have survived: The industry landscape has changed 2.1. Lead investment: The first indicator we need to examine in the past and present is “lead investment” (Lead Investment), which is the funding round that major venture capital companies have historically dominated. Some venture capital firms are still active in leading investment deals, while others have completely disappeared or only recently emerged. Since leading a round of financing has always required the reputation and capital scale only large venture capitalists have, companies that have led major rounds in the past have shown strong resilience, and most of them are still in the top ten today. 2.2. The differentiation of surviving venture capital, judging from the latest data from 2024 to 2026, crypto-native venture capital firms and established large institutions are concentrating their resources on leading investment transactions and participating more deeply in a single transaction. They changed their business model: reducing the overall number of transactions while raising the due diligence threshold, and actively seeking board seats and more influence over project governance. However, the cumulative number of regular round participation (round participation) outside of leading investment transactions showed a very different picture. Among the top 15 venture capital firms that participated from 2024 to the first half of 2026, venture capital institutions under the exchange account for a large share. Exchanges are far more willing to participate in financing rounds than lead investors. Among them, Coinbase Ventures ranked first with 140 transactions, OKX Ventures ranked second with 94, and yZi Labs ranked third with 92. Note: yZi Labs...

39d agoWendy#CEX #DEX #VC #invests #depths #financing

Korean stocks plummeted to persuade retail investors to retreat, and Upbit's turnover soared 436% in one day

Author: Claude, Shenchao TechFlow Original title: Korean stocks plummeted to persuade retail investors to retreat? Upbit's turnover skyrocketed by 436% in one day, and capital flows back to the coin industry's deep-wave guide: Korea's KOSPI index triggered another fuse mechanism on July 13. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plummeted by more than 7% and 12% respectively, and the index has accumulated a cumulative retracement of more than 20% from its peak on June 19. Retail investors began to vote with their feet: According to Coingecko data, South Korea's largest exchange Upbit's turnover soared to US$4.12 billion in nearly 24 hours, an increase of 436% in a single day. The top five trading currencies were BTC, XRP, ETH, T, and BLAST in that order. The South Korean stock market's sharp decline for nearly a week is driving retail capital towards the crypto market. On July 13, the KOSPI index opened and fell 63.91 points to 7,412.03. The intraday decline continued to expand. At 10:34 a.m., KOSPI 200 futures fell by more than 5%, triggering the 18th temporary suspension of sellers' trading (sidecar) this year. When triggered, KOSPI was at 7.162.21, down 4.20% from the previous trading day. Samsung Electronics fell more than 7.72% on the same day, and SK Hynix plummeted by more than 12%. SK Square (SK Hynix's largest shareholder) fell 15%, and Samsung Electric fell 17%. KOSPI has retraced more than 20% from its peak, and the semiconductor supercycle has experienced a crisis of trust. KOSPI has entered technical adjustments from an intraday high of 9,385 points on June 19, with a cumulative retracement of more than 20%. The degree of volatility of the Korean Exchange in 2026 has surpassed the 2008 financial crisis. Up to now, the Korea Exchange has triggered nearly 30 sidecars and multiple meltdowns this year, breaking the historical record of 26 sidecars in 2008. Together, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix account for about half of KOSPI's market capitalization, and the two almost determine the direction of the index's rise and fall. eToro market analyst Zavier Wong previously pointed out that the two stocks had about a quarter of their weight in the index at the end of last year and have now risen to about half. Any large fluctuation will drive the entire index before the remaining 900 or more listed companies have had time to respond. SK Hynix's “exhaustion of benefits” compounded the decline in profit expectations, dragging down the entire semiconductor sector SK Hynix's ADR listing on NASDAQ on July 10. First-day trading surged 12.8%, raising about 26 billion US dollars for the company. However, in the Seoul market three days later, the stock price experienced a classic correction of “buying news and selling facts.” Korea Investment Securities analyst Choi Min-suk released a report on July 13, predicting SK Hynix's operating profit for the second quarter to be 60.4 trillion won, which is about 8% lower than the market consensus of 65 trillion won. Her explanation was that SK Hynix's HBM (high-bandwidth memory, high-speed storage technology supporting the AI chip core) sales share higher than that of competitors, causing its average price growth rate to be lower than the industry average. This reduction in expectations is particularly lethal in the current environment. Li Jingmin, an analyst at Daxin Securities, pointed out that KOSPI's forward-looking price-earnings ratio has fallen to the level of the 2008 global financial crisis due to excessive concentration of semiconductors, leveraged investment liquidation, and supply and demand shocks. However, he also mentioned that current valuations have entered the undervalued range, and even a slight positive catalyst could trigger a rapid rebound. However, other voices in the market are wary of this. KOSPI's “Buffett Index” (market capitalization to GDP ratio) reached 221% in June, far higher than the average of 70.2% between 2000 and 2025, which suggests there is still room for valuation adjustments. Upbit's turnover soared 436%, and capital returned from the stock market to the crypto market. According to Coingecko data, Upbit's turnover reached US$4.12 billion in the past 24 hours, an increase of 436%. The top five trading currencies are Bitcoin, XRP, ETH, T (Threshold Network), and BLAST in that order. The move of Korean retail investors from the stock market to the coin industry is nothing new. This rebound is highly consistent with the screenplay from previous rounds of KOSPI's sharp decline. XRP had already become Upbit and Bithumb during KOSPI's decline in May...

40d agoburnking#Upbit #stocks

CEX buying US stocks? You probably just bought a “digital IOU”

Source: IOSG Ventures Authors: Ethan, Xinyang, IOSG Original title: Did you buy US stocks at CEX: Dismantling the 94% liquidation monopoly and evaporation of equity under the five-tier pipeline In 2026, CEX intensively launched US stock trading products, creating a prosperous narrative of “using USDT to seamlessly trade NVIDIA” at the front end of the industry. However, if you break away from its silky trading interface and examine the legal relationships and liquidation process behind it, you'll find that this is not a simple “RWA asset revolution,” but rather a complex game of interests involving spot pricing, equity ownership, and the underlying escrow monopoly. The three paths of US stocks are divided in terms of capital flows, asset forms, and the most fundamental legal relationships. Currently, CEX US stock trading products on the market are not in the same category. In the dark part of the highly homogenized front-end transaction interface, they are divided into three completely different evolutionary paths based on differences in underlying assets and legal relationships: the coexistence of these three models is not an overnight product design result, but a product of continuous compromise and iteration in the on-chain ecosystem over the past few years between liquidity efficiency and traditional compliance and settlement friction. The early exploration of offshore tokenization (Tokenized) and the beginning of the limited liquidity circuit stemmed from early on-chain tokenized securities (xStocks) experiments in 2021-2024, represented by Backed Finance (xStocks) and Ondo Finance. The core of the business at this stage is to establish a special purpose company (SPV) in an offshore jurisdiction to map and mint corresponding token certificates (such as AAPLx) on the chain by fully collateralizing real shares off-chain. This type of asset has the native characteristics of cryptographic assets. It can refer to Web3 wallets and circulate on the chain without permission, completing the paradigm of assets going from 0 to 1 on the chain. However, while traditional financial native clearing giants have yet to substantially enter the crypto ecosystem, this model shows serious supply-side scarcity and scale limitations. Due to a lack of underlying liquidity support from mainstream centralized exchanges (CEXs), these tokenized assets can only circulate in a few decentralized protocols or second-tier platforms, causing the total asset management scale (TVL) of the entire circuit to remain low for a long time. As of August 2025, the total asset management scale (TVL) of the entire network chain was less than 100m. This characteristic of “asset mapping and no transaction friction efficiency” made early tokenized US stocks inevitably reduced to low liquidity deposits on the chain and failed to actually reach mainstream retail traders. Synthetic perpetual contracts: pure price derivatives game In order to make up for the shortcomings of lack of liquidity in spot tokenization, US stock/ETF perpetual contracts quickly became the main players in the market. In September 2025, Bitget pioneered the launch of US stock perpetual futures and quickly expanded the number to more than 40, with a cumulative trading volume of over $15 billion. But what really set off the racetrack was HIP-3 (unlicensed perpetual contract deployment mechanism) launched by Hyperliquid on October 13, 2025, which completely activated the all-weather equity derivatives market. As of June 2026, the nominal holdings (OI) of perpetual contracts related to US stocks have exceeded US$2.25 billion. Among them, Hyperliquid dominates with HIP-3, and its permanent holdings in the Nasdaq-100 (XYZ100) and S&P 500 indices have exceeded US$310 million and US$340 million, respectively. Binance also strongly followed suit in early 2026, gaining more than 56% of the CEX market share in the RWA sustainability sector. In particular, pre-IPO derivatives such as SpaceX (SPCX) can peak at several billion dollars in a single day. Furthermore, the cumulative trading volume of Korean stock perpetual futures (Samsung, SK Hynix, Hyundai), which was launched by Binance in early June 2026, was about US$470 million in the first week, of which SK Hynix contributed more than 90%, and the daily trading volume often exceeded 100 million US dollars, showing that retail leveraged traders are keenly interested in global hot targets such as AI semiconductors. This reflects one of the major advantages of crypto perpetual contract platforms: the ability to quickly integrate traditional brokers...

43d ago章鱼烧#Tokenized US stocks #Traditional brokerage #Compliance supervision

Meta enters the prediction market, where will Asia go

Source: Tiger Research Author: Ryan Yoon Compiled and collated by: BitPushNews core summary predicts that the market has become the mainstream industry, with a monthly trading volume of $14 billion. Meta's “Arena” project shows that big tech companies have recognized its value. The mechanism is simple: if an event occurs, the contract is settled at $1, and if not, it is $0, so the transaction price can be used as a real-time probability, and the oracles confirm the results after expiration. This is based on “skin in the game” (skin in the game): participants lose money if they make mistakes in judgment, which gives credibility to the information they provide. Western markets have incorporated the forecasting market into a formal system, while Asia's participation is limited, which is leading to capital outflows, loss of information sovereignty, and lack of user protection. Asia's task now is not to block these markets, but to determine how to use this data responsibly within the formal system, because avoiding discussions is tantamount to handing over dominance overseas. 1. The prediction market has found that the PMF prediction market was in the conceptual stage for many years. This changed around 2020, when a small number of small projects began to accumulate meaningful transaction volume and remove regulatory barriers one by one, marking the beginning of the forecasting market as an industry. Since then, growth has accelerated. The current monthly trading volume has surpassed $140 billion, and the leading platform's valuation has reached around $40 billion. Meta's entry made the industry's trend toward maturity even more evident. The New York Times recently reported that Mark Zuckerberg is personally leading a team to develop a prediction market app called “Arena.” The investment of this level of resources by a major technology company shows that the industry has gone beyond the experimental stage and established a business model with proven product and market fit points. 2. Where did the prediction market originate? Predicting markets is not a new invention. Blockchain technology existed in academia and finance for years before it brought it into the wider public eye and helped shape the industry. 2.1. The informal use of the term “forecast market” appeared later than in its actual history. In the 1980s, the concept had various names, including information markets and decision markets, and it wasn't until 2004 that an economics paper identified “forecast market” as the standard term. However, its history of practice dates back several centuries. Its earliest form was a political gamble on election results. In 18th-century London, cafes are full of bets on parliamentary scandals and prime minister changes, and the results and odds are sometimes reported in newspapers. In 19th century New York, an informal futures market that predicted presidential election results operated actively in the roadside market near Wall Street. 2.2. Academic applications in academia began with an experiment at the University of Iowa in 1988. Confused by the poll's failure to predict Jesse Jackson's victory in the Michigan preselection, three economists designed a marketplace where people could trade election results. This is the Iowa Electronics Marketplace (IEM). In 1992 and 1993, IEM was approved by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for research purposes. The market is open to anyone willing to invest $5, and between 1988 and 2004, its forecast performance outperformed traditional polls by about three-quarters. It operates as an effective laboratory that combines collective judgment into price. Even so, there was no regulatory framework at the time that allowed it to operate as an open market. 2.3. The early prediction market for binary options is very similar to binary options in the financial market: contracts are paid based on yes/no bets, that is, whether the price crosses a certain threshold within a set period of time. This structure, which settles to 1 if an event occurs and 0 otherwise, is completely consistent with the logic of today's prediction market. Binary options have also entered regulated exchanges. The 2007 US Stock Exchange's fixed return options (Fixed Return Options) and the 2008 Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) binary options based on the S&P 500 index are notable examples. Frequent fraud on offshore platforms led to several major jurisdictions banning the retail sale of these products between 2017 and 2021. Despite setbacks, the basic contract structure (i.e. binary bet) is still the logic for predicting the operation of the market today. 3. Today's predictions...

44d agoWendy#Meta #gaming #Predicting the market #Forecast market topics