WOO · 294

Analysis: SK Hynix's shareholder return plan exceeds expectations, and the potential return scale in 2027 may reach 150 trillion won

In comparison, Kim Sun-woo, an analyst at South Korea's Meritz Securities, said that SK Hynix announced a shareholder return plan after the market on August 19, announcing that it would buy back and cancel 40 trillion won of its own shares within 3 months. This release is earlier than the company's previous three-quarter announcement plan. Kim Sun-woo believes that the market may regard the release time itself as exceeding expectations. SK Hynix said that the large-scale buyback and cancellation decision was made because the company believes that the current stock price does not fully reflect its business competitiveness and ability to generate cash. Additionally, the company plans to announce the new basic dividend and special dividend policies at the third quarter results briefing at the end of October. Meanwhile, SK Hynix raised the shareholder return scale from less than 50% of the previous free cash flow (FCF) to more than 50% of the FCF, and plans to introduce a capital reduction dividend policy next year. Meritz Securities expects SK Hynix's FCF to reach 250 trillion to 300 trillion won in 2027, and based on this calculation, the potential shareholder return could reach 125 trillion to 150 trillion won (approximately $89.9 billion to $107.9 billion). The plan exceeded expectations in terms of release time, management's perception of undervaluation, and subsequent policy expectations, and it is expected that the company will concentrate on completing share repurchases within the next 3 months to boost stock price performance.

3d ago

CZ responds to the loss of BTC data: if the data is accurate, storing cryptocurrencies on exchanges is safer than self-hosting

Comparing the news, CZ retweeted Willy Woo's post on Bitcoin loss data, saying that if the data is accurate, from a statistical point of view, assets managed by an exchange may be safer than self-managed. Exchanges are more likely to be counted when hacked, and incidents such as self-managed wallets being stolen or assets lost are often not publicly disclosed, making it more difficult to collect relevant data. On the other hand, exchange data is also affected by some exchanges that have gone out of business. Finally, CZ emphasized that no one hosting method is definitely better; different solutions are suitable for different users, and adopting a balanced asset escrow method may be a better choice. According to statistics previously released by Willy Woo, approximately 1.57 million bitcoins were permanently lost due to self-hosting. In addition, the exchange has accumulated losses of approximately 1.51 million units due to incidents such as hacking attacks and bankruptcy.

18d ago

CZ: Storing cryptocurrencies on a trading platform is safer than keeping them on your own

In comparison to Twitter, Binance founder CZ said that from a statistical point of view, storing cryptocurrencies on a trading platform is safer than keeping them on your own. A few thoughts: Assuming the data is correct, my impression is that Willy has always been a staunch supporter of self-custody. In terms of centralized trading platforms, hacker attack data is easier to collect and usually involves major news. However, in terms of self-storage, incidents such as hacking attacks and loss of cryptocurrency are often not reported, so it is difficult to collect such data. In terms of trading platforms, some platforms that go out of business will reduce data quality. Binance (and some other trading platforms) has always provided users with protection against hacker attacks. I'm not saying which way is better. Different methods have different risk profiles (and products and services) and may be more suitable for different groups of people. A balanced approach is probably the best option. Crypto analyst Willy Woo's tweet quoted by CZ shows that 1.57 million BTC were lost through self-custody and 1.51 million BTC were lost on trading platforms.

18d ago

Willy Woo: It is impossible to obtain Bitcoin's sovereign attributes with ETFs and escrow alone; it is still recommended to allocate 15% of assets in BTC and gold

Comparatively, at a time when the Coldcard hardware wallet revealed a firmware bug, more than $80 million of BTC was stolen, and the market was rediscussing whether to switch to institutional hosting or direct purchase of a Bitcoin ETF, well-known analyst Willy Woo wrote in response that he is not opposed to ETFs or escrow solutions, which have many benefits in gaining recognition and connecting to traditional financial systems, but what is unique about Bitcoin is that it is the only mature digital asset with real sovereign attributes. It has no nationality and cannot be blocked, diluted, or confiscated by the country. You can only get this attribute if you master self-hosting. Willy Woo said that most of the West has lived in a security bubble since World War II, but as Ray Dalio pointed out based on the 1500 year historical study, stability itself is a cycle. At the end of the cycle, people will need a reserve that can protect themselves in the event of a brief collapse of the world, while institutions that manage assets may go out of business, and the government may seize assets in the past and future. He said that it is currently in the latter half of the cycle and suggests allocating 15% of assets to sovereign assets such as Bitcoin and gold.

19d ago

Analyst: SK Hynix's second-quarter results are expected to reach a record high

Comparing news, Meritz Securities analyst Kim Sun-woo said SK Hynix is expected to announce record second-quarter results, driven by one-time investment returns and rising semiconductor prices. The analyst estimates that SK Hynix's profit before tax from April to June will exceed 100 trillion won, including operating profit of 6.01 trillion won and investment income of 4.16 trillion won from holding Japanese Kioxia shares through the US private equity firm Bain Capital. This result will surpass the company's operating profit record of 5.88 trillion won in the first quarter. He added that DRAM and NAND memory chip prices rose 30% and 49%, respectively, in the second quarter. Earlier, SK Hynix will announce financial results for the second quarter of 2026 on July 29, 2026 (Wednesday).

26d ago

Is Bitmart difficult to withdraw? WOO X ambassador said Bitmart restricted withdrawals for “security reasons” or constituted an encroachment on users' funds

Comparative news, in response to the details of Bitmart's official withdrawal announcement, trading platform WOO X ambassador Baki posted an article on the X platform saying, “BitMart Exchange restricts users' withdrawals for 'security reasons', and its operation to turn off the automatic withdrawal function may cause a large number of users to be unable to complete the withdrawal of funds. The platform changed the withdrawal process to a manual review, requiring users to submit regulatory checks such as account identity and KYC information verification, login device and IP address and account security status verification, withdrawal address and blockchain transaction risk review, funding source and transaction history review, travel rule compliance and sanctions screening. If necessary, additional documents such as proof of identity, proof of address, proof of funding source, or proof of ownership of the withdrawal address are also required.” Baki recommended that users, if they have a P2P option, can withdraw to bank accounts through this channel; at the same time, he emphasized that the crypto market is not decentralized, but is controlled by a few large groups, exchanges, and financial parties.

27d ago

I'm “hiding” from the bull market in the coin industry. Where is the bottom of Bitcoin?

Open the market software, and on the left is NASDAQ — another record high. On the right is Bitcoin — it's falling again. This sense of division is probably the collective experience of people in the cryptocurrency industry in 2026. Other people count money in AI, and we “hide” the bull market in the coin industry. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin dropped to $66,359, then rebounded slightly to around $67,000, down 6% in a single day. Since hitting an all-time high of $126,198 in October last year, Bitcoin has accumulated a cumulative retracement of more than 46%, and the lengthy correction continues. At the same time, there is no breathing room at the macro level: stubborn inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve's lack of interest rate cuts, and geopolitical tension between the US and Iran continues to disrupt risky assets. Coupled with the crazy amount of money drawn by US AI tech stocks in the NASDAQ and S&P 500, it has eaten up the liquidity of risky assets flowing into the crypto market. Between a more definitive AI narrative and a highly volatile digital asset, the capital resolutely chose the former. Affected by this, US spot ETFs experienced a huge withdrawal of 2.43 billion US dollars in May, directly reversing the previous inflow trend. In this context, where exactly is the bottom of Bitcoin? According to the latest data from prediction market Myriad, the probability of traders betting on Bitcoin falling to $55,000 has risen to 58%. This article synthesizes the opinions of various analysts. The market's potential bottom expectations for Bitcoin can be broadly divided into three major camps. Optimists: $60,000 - $64,000 local bottom This group mainly relies on the radicalization of short-term technical indicators and historical partial support levels, believing that market sentiment is already overly pessimistic. Technical logic: The current daily RSI has fallen to the extreme oversold region of 22.7. Judging from history, overselling at such a depth has often triggered a brief “dead cat jump” rebound. Analyst opinion: Stockmoney Lizards points out that the market is currently in a perfect partial bottom position. The oversold indicator, along with long-term EMA testing, may usher in a technical repair at any time. Diego Trades believes that $63,000 - $64,000 is currently the largest core support area. If we see strong right-side buying intervention here, this will be the phased bottom of this round of correction. TANG also believes that after breaking the $69,000-$70,000 level, a large bottom consolidation zone will form near the lower 60,000 integer mark. Rational pessimists: $46,000 - $55,000 Structural Destruction This faction believes that the lack of macro-liquidity and the breakdown in technical patterns mean that Bitcoin needs a deeper pullback to clean up leverage. Technical dead end and trend confirmation: The 50-day EMA has now fallen below the 200-day EMA, forming a long-term bearish “death cross”. Meanwhile, ADX, which measures the strength of the trend, is at a high of 30.6, indicating that the current downtrend has extremely high bearish momentum. Macro capital outflow: The net outflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs reached US$2.43 billion in May. Traditional capital is being withdrawn from risky assets against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's refusal to cut interest rates, stubborn inflation, and the AI racetrack being strongly attracted to money. Analyst opinion: According to his old on-chain model and CVDD Floor (bottom value of days of cumulative destruction) model, on-chain data expert Willy Woo shows that currently the actual bottom of the chain of BTC is roughly in the $46,000 - $54,000 range (the bottom of the current CVDD model is around $45.5k). This is highly consistent with the forecast market's speculation of a bottom of $55,000. PlanB, the inventor of the S2F model, said that the market is currently in a 50/50 dispute over “whether February's $60,000 is the bottom”. Judging from data such as the share of profitable addresses on the chain, the actual bottom pattern has not yet been established. There is a 50% probability that the market will continue to break down, backtest $61,000 where the 200-week moving average (200WMA) is located, and even hit the realized price ($53,000) representing the overall market cost line. Ted suggests that Bitcoin's electricity production cost is currently below $49,000 at the bottom. Although ETF outflows from institutions such as BlackRock have accelerated the panic, falling below the production cost line often means that the absolute bottom of value is approaching. Extreme bear market faction: $32,000 - $44,000 cyclically bottomed out. The group without a supercycle believes that the adjustment from the end of 2025 to 2026 is not a simple “bull market retracement &...

81d agoWendy#Bitcoin #BEARISH #Bull market #Market topics

Analyst: Bitcoin's mid-term assessment of the bear market is clearly flawed. $60,000 may be at the bottom of the current round

Comparing the news, according to Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency analyst Matthew Hyland said that Bitcoin may have bottomed out at around $60,000 in early February and is unlikely to see a lower price later this year. He pointed out that dozens of bottom signals appeared simultaneously when Bitcoin hit $60,000 in the first quarter of 2026, and these signals did not occur in the middle of the bull market. Hyland believes that the current market is not in the middle of a bear market; this judgment is clearly flawed because the bottom signal only flashes at the real bottom. Previously, veteran trader Peter Brandt thought $60,000 might not be the lowest point in 2026, and Willy Woo said Bitcoin was only about one-third of the bear market.

105d ago

CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin is entering the value accumulation zone, and there is limited room for decline

Comparatively, according to CryptoQuant data, the Bitcoin Composite Market Index (BCMI), which consists of MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and the Fear and Greed Index, is currently testing key historical pivots. Analyst Woominkyu (@Woo_Minkyu) said the BCMI index has fallen to the 0.2 to 0.3 range. While there is no guarantee of an immediate V-reversal, the region historically corresponds to a deeply undervalued level of BTC. Through data backtracking, BCMI confirmed that the current pullback has reset realized values and market sentiment to levels not seen since early 2023, but the 90-day EMA (white line) is still declining. From a conservative point of view, it is necessary to wait for this slope to flatten; this will be a sign that the selling pressure will eventually run out. Furthermore, analyst Woominkyu believes that the market is entering a value accumulation zone, and the room for decline is shrinking compared to the long-term upside. However, it is still necessary to wait for the price to stabilize to confirm the bottom signal of the index.

127d ago

Analysis: BTC has officially entered the second half of the bear market, and even the last drop would be difficult to break $45,500

Comparing news, analyst Murphy said he observed that the average on-chain replacement cost for BTC for 1-2 years (yellow line) intersected with the average on-chain replacement cost for BTC holding 1-3 months (orange line). The signal is almost 100% certain at the on-chain data level, indicating that BTC has officially entered the second half of the bear market. Furthermore, Murphy also said that the Bitcoin long-term valuation index CVDD proposed by well-known on-chain analyst Willy Woo reached $45,410 at the end of last month, a slow increase of only $506 from February 10. It shows that in the early days, giant whale coin holders have drastically decreased or even almost stopped switching hands on the chain. CVDD is one of the few indicators in BTC history that has never failed — the price is always above CVDD, and the bear market bottom only infinitely approaches it but never falls below. Therefore, even if there is a final drop, BTC will not fall below about $45,500. Currently, in theory, there is a decline of about 30% at most, but in reality it is likely to be far less than that.

141d ago