PLACE · 156

马斯克，Grok 4.6 综合排名第一

比推消息，马斯克表示，Grok 4.6 在智能程度、运行速度和使用成本方面综合排名第一。      SpaceXAI has best AI model end of August?Yes      No    Powered by        Moment      Predict. Earn Points. Unlock the Airdrop编辑删除    aiSpaceXAI has best AI model end of August?YesNoThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".ai2026-09-012026-09-01T06:59:59.999Zhttps://moment.vision/mapi/uploads/openai/images/20260812173549_361c19a827fcb8f7.jpg6a7caf05be5ceaec146ac83c

10天前

趋势基金创纪录做空全球债券，美国 CPI 报告料成为盈亏关键

比推消息，据彭博社报道，瑞银集团的数据显示，旨在从各类资产价格走势中获利的商品交易顾问 (CTA) 在 7 月将低配债券的头寸较两周前增加两倍。此后，这些押注一直保持稳定，即将公布的美国消费者和生产者价格指数如果刺激国债价格走高，这些 CTA 交易将面临亏损风险。根据策略师 Nicolas Le Roux 的说法，在通胀数据公布前，10 年期国债收益率每变动 1 个基点，CTA 的盈亏规模约为 3 亿美元，敞口为瑞银自 1990 年开始编制相关数据以来最大。      July Inflation US：August 12, 2026≥0.1%      others    Powered by        Moment      Predict. Earn Points. Unlock the Airdrop编辑删除    otherJuly Inflation US：August 12, 2026≥0.1%othersThe resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.other2026-08-132026-08-13T06:59:59.999Zhttps://moment.vision/mapi/uploads/openai/images/20260811165847_21beb1331cc9b25d.jpg6a7b551cd54fc51855a4049f

11天前

Geopolitical：『Still On ME』｜0609Asian

前按： 當地週日深夜，德黑蘭與特拉維夫互射。懂王説別動，沒按住，打完了，順台階下了。懂王説：還是得我【Still on me】。然而...特殊説明：鑒於種種，我們主動準備適應所有的內容發佈渠道、及其鏈接、公共或單獨聯絡會因『各種不可抗力』而隨時可能狗帶，朋友們有心的，多深度交流，互相促進，儘可能關注互動。鑒於一些原因，週六非農後研報《EI Nino&VIX》及週一亞盤前《None ESCAPE》僅做內部分享，未公開發表至本平台。鑒於種種，文字部分會儘量縮略/變形處理，核心觀點、數據、結論或在相應圖庫顯示，或需要必要的KYC（ Know your customer）之後單獨解鎖。——以下正文，注意研報圖庫高清圖片內容——◎ Key point of geopolitical※第4階段。根據策略組系列l研報的定義，第7次中東戰爭（德黑蘭時間2月27日深夜）進入第四階段，標誌是『撕毀停火，以伊直接交火。【第1階段為美以聯軍空襲伊朗至和談停火，第2階段和談停火開始至和談停火結束，第3階段和談停火結束至繼續長期和談（檀香刑）】※USA 。Trump said it's still on me.不要打，啊，不聽我的?哦。夠了。好吧，都聽了，還是得我【也許是商量好的劇本】。 West Point剛剛舉辦畢業典禮，透露的氛圍比較激進。※USA and Israel。 戰略利益分化，以色列堅持要打，不打完蛋（內塔尼亞胡本人的政治生命），美國再打完蛋（懂王撅嘴）。※Israel and Iran 。死循環。按需出牌。內塔尼亞胡絕不會停手，而伊朗武官表示，從波斯灣到紅海已經被。革命衞隊掌控。伊朗説再打黎巴嫩（不是南部鄉村，而是貝魯特真主黨總部），就轟你。以色列、衹要我挨炸，就炸貝魯特真主黨總部（按慣常邏輯和以往歷史，那裡應該有伊朗的顧問）。但有一個變量，以色列持續表達的黎巴嫩真主黨遊擊隊對以色列北部的攻擊視同伊朗的攻擊。逐漸被更多的觀察者認可。※USA&Iran 。懂王慌，極力要促成和談框架，即便衹是一個框架。高利率，高油價，股市調整，中期選舉，目前精神狀態欠佳。伊朗武官要趁機擴大影響力，達成對美以的所謂戰略主動和定價權。※美伊以僵局 。按劇本（懂王不讓打，沒勸住，打了一下又給面子，迅速停下來，各自給己方交代）被打破、修復。各取所需，並不尋求即刻的向深度發展【以色列最遠打到伊斯法罕，這裡慣常的目標是戰略防空部隊和核設施，伊朗總共射了24枚彈道導彈，沒有突防戰術，衹是送活靶子，單次任務代號，並沒有編波次】。※European Union.因海峽不通制裁伊朗，伊朗不care。※霍爾木茲海峽。NACHO【 Not a chance HORMUZ open】。盤口通行隱含勝率持續降低。◎ Economic of war※日圓。渡邊太太【日元外匯交易槓桿客】估計要大量下海。※厄爾尼諾-糧食安全。見此前研報和盤中提示，不贅述。※厄爾尼諾-減災經濟學。Severe convective weather and earthquake,Some place You may know inside, India, Philippines, indonesia. Few countries in Africa.◎流動性※SpaceX。倒計時。※USA：VIX【恐慌指數，暨標普500看跌期權隱含波動率】獲相應修復，納指獲微弱修復。部分科技反彈。※Dragon：4K那啥，大王説幾就是幾。巨流，縮量。※Korea：皮衣黃烤肉批發之旅，未能阻擋週一韓綜熔斷。批發大王連續發表...

75天前Wendy#兰链智库

Agentic AI 爆发背后，存储基础设施迎来重估时刻

作者：XinGPT要理解存储，必须先理解半导体整个产业链发生了什么。原文标题：从Token爆炸到物理瓶颈：Agentic AI驱动的存储大牛市故事的起点：推理已经超过训练过去两年，半导体的故事一直是"NVIDIA + 训练集群"。但是从 2026 年开始，由于AI Agent需求的突然爆发，最典型的比如Claude Code的爆发式增长，让Anthropic 的 ARR 4 个月从 90 亿美金涨到 300 亿美金。推理已经占了 AI 计算量的 66%，两三年前这个数字还只有 33%。也就是说，三年时间，推理和训练的位置完全反过来了。而这意味着什么呢？我们以NVIDIA Blackwell B200 GPU为例，从结构上看，B200 由两块 Blackwell die 组成，通过 NV-HBI 高带宽接口连接，die-to-die 带宽达到 10TB/s。整颗 GPU 拥有约 2080 亿个晶体管、148 个 SM、20,480 个 CUDA Core 和 1,024 个 Tensor Core，主要负责大模型中的矩阵运算。在 GPU 内部，数据会按照距离计算核心的远近分层流动：第一层是 Registers，也就是寄存器。它离计算核心最近，速度最快，用来保存正在计算的数据。第二层是 L1 / Shared Memory。它位于每个 SM 内部，用来缓存短期、高频访问的数据，减少对更远内存的访问。第三层是 TMEM，也就是 Tensor Memory。这是 Blackwell 针对 Tensor Core 引入的重要设计，用来让矩阵计算中的关键数据更靠近计算单元，提高 Tensor Core 的利用率。第四层是 L2 Cache。B200 拥有约 126MB 的共享 L2 Cache，负责在多个 SM 之间缓存和复用数据，尤其适合推理场景中反复访问模型权重。第五层是 HBM3e。B200 配备 192GB HBM3e，带宽约 8TB/s，是模型权重、KV Cache、激活值和输入数据的主要存储区域。对于大模型推理来说，尤其在 Decode 阶段，HBM 带宽往往直接决定 token 生成速度。HBM 存放大规模模型数据，L2 / L1 / TMEM 负责把高频数据逐级送到计算核心，Tensor Core / CUDA Core 完成矩阵运算。计算结果再写回缓存或 HBM，并通过 NVLink / NV-HBI 与其他 GPU 协同工作。一块 GPU 在做 AI 推理的时候,处理一段 prompt 分成两个阶段:Prefill 和 Decode——可以粗暴地理解成"读题"和"答题"。第一阶段:Prefill(上下文处理,也就是"读题")你发一段 prompt 进去,比如 4096 个 token。模型第一件事,是把这 4096 个 token 同时全部读完，搞清楚每个 token跟其他所有 token 之间的关系。这件事叫注意力机制(Attention)，它要计算一个 S × S 的矩阵，S 就是序列长度，这里 S = 4096。GPU 里有一个专门做矩阵乘法的硬件单元,叫 Tensor Core，可以把它想象成"矩阵专用计算器"。这一阶段 Tensor Core 利用率高达 90-95%，全速干活。这里有一个关键概念叫 arithmetic intensity(算术强度)，意思是"每从内存读 1 个字节数据,能做多少次运算"。Pr...

92天前Luxurytracy

已有 11 个 DeFi 协议已受 Drift 安全事件影响，部分暂停核心功能等待恢复运营

比推消息，Drift 协议漏洞事件已波及多个 DeFi 协议，Reflect Money、Ranger Finance、Neutral Trade、Elemental DeFi、Project 0、Lulo Finance、Asgard Finance、DeFi Carrot、Pyra、xPlace、Fuse Wallete 已确认受影响，部分协议暂停铸造、赎回或存取款功能。其中 Ranger Finance 确认约 90 万美元风险敞口，占其 1460 万美元总锁仓量的约 6%。Pyra 表示用户资金因存放于 Drift 获取收益而受影响，已暂停 Pyra 卡功能。Asgard Finance 称 Drift 相关风险敞口不重大，已禁用该信贷来源并联系受影响用户。Fuse Wallet 暂停 Earn 产品向 Drift 的存入，但钱包本身未受影响。DeFi Carrot 暂停铸造和赎回功能，Boost 和 Turbo 产品不受影响。xPlace 的 Savings 产品存取款暂停，信用模式及借贷功能临时禁用。Elemental DeFi、Project 0 等协议表示相关资金分配已暂停，等待 Drift 恢复运营。Lulo Finance 则警告 Classic 存款用户可能受影响，Protected 和 Boosted 产品无风险敞口。（SolanaFloor）

142天前

Big player's 『Trigger moment』|0227Europe

Since February 2, US Eastern Time, the United States has issued an ultimatum to Iran, and the whole world has passed 12 days in various phantoms, among which China has just passed a complete  Chinese traditional Festival NEWYEAR.And yesterday and today, Two others related big player,China and Canada were already  send  Clearly announcement: Evacuation.What's going on and what will be happened in the next several days?Maybe someone still remember several weeks ago. We said we do not achieved the big moment yet ,still not yet, for several weeks,It looks like no one understood it completely., Because it's real A little Complicated. But for now everyone may understood it Easily.Many events towards the big moment. And it means most of the big players in the world were all get there trigger time trigger moment.Notice the picture four and five.The big players prepayment of military and book markers dish as below:US Two Aircraft Carriers and Nuclear Submarines Containment in Place G7 moderates (France, Germany, Italy and Canada) have issued the highest-level evacuation statement, and the United States has issued a non-emergency evacuation order for diplomats. Dongda Issues Entry Reminder.Technical talks（The lost hope of the peace.）in Vienna next Tuesday, results on Thursday .The intensity of global gambling companies shows that since March, the probability of the United States using force against Iran has risen parabolically, with inertial growth from Marc...

176天前burnking#兰链智库

You Should work HARDER in 2026|0120 Asian

Comrade, you have to work harder to pay off your debts.  Oh,maybe the debets wasn't yours but you  Should to pay for it.Today is a beautiful day in most areas,  Middle Middle East , Along the changjiang River,because it snowed in many places  Of these, and Shanghai also had a bit of snow for many years. Play with snow were Cheering on social media has lowered the long-lost joy, and there is less mention of whether it is cold or not. Even if it is cold, it is only a few degrees below zero, which is not as good as today's  Shanghai  Composite sharing market。There are not too many unexpected stimuli on the news, but the Ministry of Finance 『 Maybe』is about 2025. A measure of the size of the deficit,It may be more important than most people can observe-the deficit rate in 2025 is 4%, an increase of one percentage point over the same period last year, and the debt scale is close to 12 trillions yuan—— Did you remember and noticed the figure like the debt scale at the end of 2024? Speaking More of this, In Nowadays with a higher and higher risk, If you have a snowy place, try to enjoy the snow and breathe fresh air. When the weather is good, remember to work hard and pay back the debt of nearly 40 trillions yuan accumulated in the past two years  And in 2026.The Ministry of Finance said that it would expand moderately in 2026 to ensure the 『FOCUS』.The overall scale of borrowing may contribute to this super-large debt pool, w...

214天前burnking#兰链智库

pump.fun 联合创始人：空投不会在近期进行

比推消息，pump.fun 联合创始人 Alon 今日接受了海外 KOL Thread Guy 的直播专访。 在谈及潜在的 PUMP 空投时，Alon 表示：“显然，我们要回馈那些帮助打造了这个平台，并见证了它在过去一年半中蓬勃发展的社区成员。也就是说，我们既要确保这次空投具有实质意义且执行到位，同时也深知这对平台而言是个绝佳机遇——既能强化现有生态，又能提升交易量和用户活跃度，并实现长期可持续增长。这对我们至关重要。正因如此，我们正全力推动生态系统的热度回归。不过需要说明的是，空投不会在近期进行（原话为：airdrop is not going to be taking place in the immediate future），具体时间表和实施细则将在确定后第一时间向社区同步。”

394天前

英国上市公司 Vaultz Capital 筹集约 116 万美元用于增持比特币

比推消息，据官方消息，伦敦上市的数字资产运营公司 Vaultz Capital 宣布已通过超额认购的定向增发（Placing）和 WRAP 零售发售成功筹集 100 万英镑（约合 116 万美元），用于增持比特币。

416天前

Gavin Wood在新加坡的演讲：Polkadot JAM

本文是根据Gavin Wood2024年9月16日在新加坡Polkadot Decoded Asia演讲时所展示的PPT翻译而成。Lemma 1:All stable social systems need forms of governance 引理1： 所有稳定的社会系统都需要治理形式。Lemma 2: Democratic mechanisms are essential apparatus of governance 引理2： 民主机制是治理的基本工具。Lemma 2b: Democratic mechanisms are essential apparatus of governance within the Free World引理2.1： 民主机制是自由世界中治理的基本工具。Lemma 3: Humanity is fast transitioning to the digital realm引理3： 人类正在快速向数字领域转型。Lemma4: Web3 is the norms and principles of the Free World applied to the digital realm引理4： Web3是自由世界的规范和原则在数字领域的应用。Lemma 5: Without strong individuality, democratic mechanisms are impossible引理5： 没有强烈的个性，民主机制就不可能实现。Consider: If l am having a conversation with someone, and I cannot tell whether it is a human or an Al-that's the end of democracy. CPakndn Yuval Noah Hariri(The Economist, 28/04/23) 思考：如果我在和某人交谈，而我无法分辨他是人类还是人工智能——这就是民主的终结。——Yuval Noah Harari（《经济学人》，2023年4月28日）Lemma 6: Blockchain systems are social systems引理6： 区块链系统是社会系统。Lemma 6b: Blockchain systems capable of evolution are social systems引理6.1： 能够进化的区块链系统是社会系统。Conclusion: Blockchains need Strong Individuality to survive. The Free World needs Web3 and Strong Individuality to survive.Individuality cuts close to the bone It might send a shudder down your spine结论： 区块链需要强烈的个性才能生存。自由世界需要Web3和强烈的个性才能生存。Individuality vs IdentityIdentity aids in linking my interactions; it compromises my digital self. Pervasive strong identity is the despot's dream. Individuality only demonstrates ...

705天前dy zhang#Gavin Wood #TOKEN2049Week #WEB3 #区块链 #金色财经